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You are on lead. Which card would you play? Why?

#21 User is offline   TomSawyer4 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 00:10

Skipping all of the discussion about a different hand:

Partner probably has a decent hand (10-11+)without a long major. Declarer could easily be void in either major.
Leading a diamond does nothing for the defense, and could easily finesse partner holding Kx(dummy void).

Leading either Ace could set up overtricks when the board shows up with the right cards.
I can quickly design hands with eight diamonds, a major suit void opposite a key five, running 13 tricks by ruffing the major suit ace at trick one.

Declarer's contract appears to be sound.

That leaves the club suit:
Its more likely declarer has clubs than either hearts or spades.

Leading the King could be easily be self-finesse, even given its more likely than not declarer doesn't have the Ace.

On the eight of clubs I'm hoping to find partner with the ace, a club return or major suit finesse at trick two, and hopefully results in set before yielding control to declarer.
In the alternative, if dummy has the ace, my King is probably dead anyway, but declarer is forced to make a key decision at trick one, when he has less information.

If partner doesn't have the ace, the doubleton is unlikely to be recognized in time, and I'll probably still get the King of clubs in any scenario where I would have gotten it with protection.

More simply, baring the king of clubs by leading the eight most likely leaves me no worse off, and could result in a quick set. Any other card could result in overtricks.

I lead the eight of clubs.
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#22 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 00:58


arepo24 writes "Here are my cards as arranged in my hand to play the 4D contract: Trumps are the first suit in my hand: "
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Some don't sort their cards at all. And that would be even less helpful :)
I would still lead an ace, with K as 3rd choice.

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#23 User is offline   arepo24 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 08:21

View Postnige1, on 2020-June-15, 08:56, said:


arepo24 writes "The opposition has bid 4 Diamonds and all have passed, without any intervening bids."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Your choice of lead will probably depend on the auction. But. OK.
Let's assume that you are West, on lead after South opened 4.
I rank
1. A. Take Rixi's advice to lead an ace against a pre--empt..
2. A. Similar reasoning.
3. K. Hoping for a ruff.
4. x. At least GIB would approve


Big problem with the above: There IS NO A of Diamonds
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#24 User is offline   arepo24 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 08:29

View Postshyams, on 2020-June-16, 12:55, said:

... or perhaps writing the suits in the standard order ( then then then ). The fact that diamonds are trumps does not mean it has to be listed first in the order of priority.

Thanks for being kind enough to tell me that. I am fairly new here and frankly had no idea what some posters were referring to.
I was just trying to show my hand as arranged and ready to play the particular hand with the trump cards on my left. What do I know?
Thanks for making it simple to understand what others were trying to tell me.
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#25 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 10:35

View Postarepo24, on 2020-June-16, 12:45, said:

The contract is 4D by opponent. I have the lead. Here are my cards as arranged in my hand to play the 4D contract:
Trumps are the first suit in my hand:
D:865 (trumps)
S:A984
H:A872
C:K8
WHAT IS MY LEAD?
Lots of responses all over the place. I would rarely lead an unsupported A in a non NT contract unless maybe the contract was in slam. Nor would I lead away from an Ace (which is even worse). As for the CK? That's obvious!
My answer: I led the Trump Diamond 8.
I could have led the trump diamond 5 but then I thought my partner might think I had a high trump card in my hand.


A few comments:

1. Next time, please arrange the suits in standard order: S H D C. Please do NOT put trump on top or at the left. No one does that. It is confusing.

2. If you think the answer is so obvious, then why ask the question to begin with?

3. Contrary to what you believe, the answer is not at all obvious, as shown by the myriad responses. Indeed, just about anything could be right.

Cheers,
Mike
Mike
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#26 User is offline   arepo24 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 14:27

View Postmiamijd, on 2020-June-17, 10:35, said:

A few comments:

1. Next time, please arrange the suits in standard order: S H D C. Please do NOT put trump on top or at the left. No one does that. It is confusing.

2. If you think the answer is so obvious, then why ask the question to begin with?

3. Contrary to what you believe, the answer is not at all obvious, as shown by the myriad responses. Indeed, just about anything could be right.

Cheers,
Mike
Mike
Excuse me?
I NEVER said the answer was obvious. If I thought that I would never have posted in the first place!
I said not leading the CK was obvious. And I do happen to believe that, and from other posts, so do many others. And NOT anything could be right.
Please don't put words in my mouth.
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#27 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2020-June-17, 17:35

View Postarepo24, on 2020-June-17, 14:27, said:

Excuse me?
I NEVER said the answer was obvious. If I thought that I would never have posted in the first place!
I said not leading the CK was obvious. And I do happen to believe that, and from other posts, so do many others. And NOT anything could be right.
Please don't put words in my mouth.


Words like you wouldn’t lead an ace nor underlead an ace nor lead the K?
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#28 User is online   AL78 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 03:01

This is largely a guess, isn't it? Whatever lead you choose, there exist layouts where it is the best lead and where it is the worst. I don't see how it is possible to calculate all the possible layouts with probabilities to come up with an objective decision.
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#29 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 03:37

View PostAL78, on 2020-June-18, 03:01, said:

This is largely a guess, isn't it? Whatever lead you choose, there exist layouts where it is the best lead and where it is the worst. I don't see how it is possible to calculate all the possible layouts with probabilities to come up with an objective decision.

It depends a bit on the scoring method, and also on the preempt style of the opponents.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#30 User is offline   arepo24 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 06:33

View PostVampyr, on 2020-June-17, 17:35, said:

Words like you wouldn’t lead an ace nor underlead an ace nor lead the K?


Yes, words like that. I have my subjective opinion about those things just as you do yours.Not to say they are the gospel.
But I NEVER referred to anything but the K8 which to me was obvious.
Get it straight Mister!
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#31 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 06:46

This thread is becoming more absurd by the minute.
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#32 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 09:08

View Postarepo24, on 2020-June-18, 06:33, said:

Get it straight Mister!

I wonder whether she'll be amused or insulted by this.
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#33 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 09:10

View Postarepo24, on 2020-June-17, 08:29, said:

Thanks for being kind enough to tell me that. I am fairly new here and frankly had no idea what some posters were referring to.
I was just trying to show my hand as arranged and ready to play the particular hand with the trump cards on my left. What do I know?
Thanks for making it simple to understand what others were trying to tell me.

Having been here for more than six years and made more than 60 posts, you shouldn't have needed t be told.
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#34 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 12:46

View Postgordontd, on 2020-June-18, 09:08, said:

I wonder whether she'll be amused or insulted by this.

😇
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#35 User is offline   arepo24 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 17:51

View Postgordontd, on 2020-June-18, 09:10, said:

Having been here for more than six years and made more than 60 posts, you shouldn't have needed t be told.

Wow this group is really a tough bunch.
Not a kind or helpful face out there.
With all the bigotry and prejudice going on in the world you'd think there would be a bit of kindness and understanding.
Bye
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#36 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2020-June-18, 20:21

View Postarepo24, on 2020-June-18, 17:51, said:

Wow this group is really a tough bunch.
Not a kind or helpful face out there.
With all the bigotry and prejudice going on in the world you'd think there would be a bit of kindness and understanding.
Bye


Sorry for the confusion folks. Thanks for explaining how to use the hand diagram.


FYP
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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