[Cyberyeti]

hamish32, on 2020-June-02, 00:36, said:

6H is almost 100% needing just 4-2 breaks in Hearts and Spades. 6S and 6NT are similar needing spades to break 3-3 or the club finesse. However 6S is considerably better than 6NT because of the D situation on a D lead. 7H needs the club finesse and a 33 Spade break so its bad.

Resting in 3NT is only good in a room full of weak players. But many people do t have the methods to consider are moysian fit for slam so considering resting in 3NT is understandable i suppose.

Very little in this is right, 4-2 breaks in hearts and spades for 6♥ are about 84% of 84% so around 70%, hardly close to 100 although there are some small extra chances if spades are 5-1.

6♠ is spades 3-3 (35.5%) + half of spades 4-2 (24.2) = 69.7%

6N needs spades 3-3 or clubs to play for 4 tricks, so 35.5 + 64.7% of (half of clubs 3-3 (17.8) + half of ♣(Q10) (1.6)) = 48.1 (and you will be -several rather than -1 on a diamond lead if the club finesse is wrong and spades aren't 3-3.

7♥ does not need a 3-3 spade break, you can ruff a spade high if they're 4-2, it needs the hearts 4-2 or 3-3, the spades 4-2 or 3-3 and the club finesse or stiff Q offside so around 36%.

[bluenikki]

shyams, on 2020-June-02, 02:24, said:

Thank you everyone for the replies. I posted this hand for two reasons:

1. I felt like this was one hand where a 4-3 (Moysian) fit in hearts offered the best chance of slam.

2. I had a story to tell.
This is what happened at my table (the hand is from a Robot Rebate 55% tournament; at all tables, the human player is South with other seats occupied by bots).

---

a. I landed up in a grand slam on a Moysian fit! Once the opening of ♣ appeared, I felt I had excellent chances.
b. When two top spades survive, I was ecstatic. Possibly for the first time in my life I was about to make a grand slam on a Moysian.
c. Alas, at trick 6, East discarded --- revealing a 5-1 ♥ break. Leading inexorably to a 0% score on the board.
d. I guess I could have escaped for down 1, but the score of 0% would not have changed.

* Of the 14 tables in play, 7 reached 6NT by North. None of the Easts led a diamond, which meant 12 tricks were easy (77%).
* Only one table reached the excellent 6♥ and played very well to make it. Their efforts scored a mere 46% on the board. The bidding was identical to what happened at my table except South wisely chose to reply 5NT to North's 5♠ query and the bidding rested in 6♥.
* All others, i.e. excluding myself, were in a game contract.

When a robot bids 4NT without a jump, your best chance is to pass. For one thing, bbo robots often (always, really) have xx in an unbid suit.

Also, a player who has bid 3NT nonforcing cannot bid 4NT blackwood. For many reasons.

[miamijd]

shyams, on 2020-June-02, 02:24, said:

Thank you everyone for the replies. I posted this hand for two reasons:

1. I felt like this was one hand where a 4-3 (Moysian) fit in hearts offered the best chance of slam.

2. I had a story to tell.
This is what happened at my table (the hand is from a Robot Rebate 55% tournament; at all tables, the human player is South with other seats occupied by bots).

---

a. I landed up in a grand slam on a Moysian fit! Once the opening of ♣ appeared, I felt I had excellent chances.
b. When two top spades survive, I was ecstatic. Possibly for the first time in my life I was about to make a grand slam on a Moysian.
c. Alas, at trick 6, East discarded --- revealing a 5-1 ♥ break. Leading inexorably to a 0% score on the board.
d. I guess I could have escaped for down 1, but the score of 0% would not have changed.

* Of the 14 tables in play, 7 reached 6NT by North. None of the Easts led a diamond, which meant 12 tricks were easy (77%).
* Only one table reached the excellent 6♥ and played very well to make it. Their efforts scored a mere 46% on the board. The bidding was identical to what happened at my table except South wisely chose to reply 5NT to North's 5♠ query and the bidding rested in 6♥.
* All others, i.e. excluding myself, were in a game contract.

I don't understand why you bid 7H. The Robot showed about 8-9 when it signed off in 3NT. With 10+, it doesn't bid 3NT over 3S. When you bid 4H, if you moused over, I think the robot expected 5/5. So your partner has 3+ hearts and 8-9 HCP. Why do you think you can make a grand?

If I wanted to gamble in MPs, I would bid 6NT and hope I didn't get a diamond lead (even on a D lead, you have some squeeze chances, but they don't come in here). But I think after 5S, you should just bid 5NT (Q, no lower Kings) or even 6H.

Incidentally, when the robot bids 2NT over 2C, it generally doesn't have a four-card major. Not 100%, but that's what I have found.

Cheers,
Mike

[hamish32]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-June-02, 02:41, said:

Very little in this is right, 4-2 breaks in hearts and spades for 6♥ are about 84% of 84% so around 70%, hardly close to 100 although there are some small extra chances if spades are 5-1.

6♠ is spades 3-3 (35.5%) + half of spades 4-2 (24.2) = 69.7%

6N needs spades 3-3 or clubs to play for 4 tricks, so 35.5 + 64.7% of (half of clubs 3-3 (17.8) + half of ♣(Q10) (1.6)) = 48.1 (and you will be -several rather than -1 on a diamond lead if the club finesse is wrong and spades aren't 3-3.

7♥ does not need a 3-3 spade break, you can ruff a spade high if they're 4-2, it needs the hearts 4-2 or 3-3, the spades 4-2 or 3-3 and the club finesse or stiff Q offside so around 36%.

I dont see how your percentages are different at all than what i said. 6H is 100% the best contract.

[Cyberyeti]

hamish32, on 2020-June-03, 23:32, said:

I dont see how your percentages are different at all than what i said. 6H is 100% the best contract.

"6H is almost 100%" no it isn't, around 70%, with this actual layout being one of the fringe extras outside of the 70% where you can make it.

"6S and 6NT are similar needing spades to break 3-3 or the club finesse" wrong again, spades 4-2 and clubs Qx/Qxxx onside won't make 6N on a diamond lead but will make 6♠

"7H needs the club finesse and a 33 Spade break so its bad. " no it doesn't, spades 4-2 you can ruff a spade high