[bridgeboy]

Hi all,

I read about the following problem but I have some doubts about the suggested solution.. so maybe someone can work out the exact percentages...

Here's the problem :

Scoring: IMP

South leads club T against 6NT

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Thanks all in advance,
Jinzhou

[david_c]

I can only find one sensible line - what am I missing?

Cash ♠QJ, ♥A, then cross to ♥Q and cash the other two spades. If both opponents followed to the two hearts, then you pitch diamonds on the spades and then set up a heart trick. (Even if there is a spade still out, it's likely to be in the hand with shorter hearts.) If hearts are breaking 5-1 or worse then pitch hearts on the spades and take the diamond finesse.

[Fluffy]

There is a blockage problem, and I don't se how to solve it.

Its a percentage problem, if you wanna banj everything on ♥4-2 you have to duck first round of the suit after ♠QJ so nobody can cash a 5th ♠. But that is a poor line since a ♦ return will give you no possible extra chance, chances of someone having 4♥+5♠ is much less than ♥5-1 and ♦ finese onside.

Any endplay line I can think of will give up ♥ breaking wixh sounds ridicoulous. I think I would just take it easy and play the standard ♠QJ and ♥A+♥Q and ♠AK, playing ♦ finese if neccesary.

[Echognome]

I haven't given it much thought, but it looks like J♣ may be significant. You can cash a couple of clubs and then jettison a high club on a high spade which will probably be your useful squeeze card. Or maybe I'm reading too much into the spots.

[Fluffy]

I don't think ♣J is worth anything, you cannot cash 3♥ tricks before entering dummy unless you overtake a ♠ honnor (doesn't look right to me), and if you don't cash them then no end play will work, and you won't know what to discard since you don't know how ♥ are breaking.

[Winstonm]

The only danger with this hand is a 5-1 or 6-0 heart break or if the long heart hand in a 4-2 break also holds 5 spades, so the question is how to maximize your chances if either occurs.

It seems to rule out possibilities would be a viable option of play; cash the QJ of spades - if both folow, you can rule out case #2. If one shows out on the second spade, then case 2 is possible; at this point it appears a duck of a heart would be the best play and rely on the 4/2 or 3/3 heart break.

If case #2 is ruled out when both follow to QJ of spades, then we are back to trying to solve case #1. At this point it seems right to play 1 more high club, then the Ace of hearts and then cross to the Queen of hearts - the only problem is if someone show out on either heart. If RHO has the length in hearts, I can play A, K of spades, pitching the Queen of clubs and 1 heart. We are down to a 5-card ending. RHO must hold 2 hearts, so now the J of clubs will squeeze RHO if he also started life with the king of diamonds.

If LHO has heart length, no squeeze will operate that I know, so in this case I will rely on the diamond finesse. Playing in this fashion will win anytime the hearts are 3/3 or 4/2 (82%) and whenever RHO holds the diamond King when the hearts are unbalanced (9%). Although the percentages change when RHO is known to hold length, this is close enough for me. Call it 85% when RHO has 5 or more hearts and 95% when LHO holds the long hearts, or about a 90% line it would seem to me.

The only other viable line I see - is to cross to the king of spades and take the diamond finesse at trick 3. If this loses, you will have to find the hearts 3/3. If the finesse wins, you can can unblock the spade, then duck a diamond. This would win if the diamonds are 3/3 with the King onside (18%) and when the hearts are 3/3, (36%). Only a 54% line. Ugh.

Best I can come up with before the director starts hovering over my table.

[Willem]

My line doesn't work

[civill]

The up poster is escaping,I'd follow him.

[bridgeboy]

Hi all,

According to the book,

the reccommended play was to duck a H on trick 4 (after unblocking QJ S) to ensure you make whenever H are 4-2.

On the actual layout the opp with long H had 5 S. My initial line was the same as david c's and Jlall's . Incidentally, this was also the one adopted by the 'student' and labelled as a mistake.

I wasn't too sure if that play is really superior.. maybe someone can calculate the exact percentage

Thanks,
Jinzhou