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guess the clubs drop or finesse

#1 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2019-October-08, 17:02



You get the T lead, you win in hand, play a diamond to the king which holds. You then cash 4 spades breaking 1-4 (RHO having 4) and 2 more hearts breaking 6-1.
LHO has thrown 2 hearts and a diamond while RHO threw 2 diamonds. How do you play the clubs?
Wayne Somerville
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-October-08, 17:13

It appears to me that W has an ace of diamonds that he hasn't blanked so he's 1642 or 1651, the odds seem to favour taking the finesse, although this is not a massively difficult duck for E to find if he has the ace, so maybe a rethink is needed, knowing who I was playing might help, as I often get a read off less than top class opps.
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#3 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2019-October-08, 23:27

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-October-08, 17:13, said:

It appears to me that W has an ace of diamonds that he hasn't blanked so he's 1642 or 1651, the odds seem to favour taking the finesse, although this is not a massively difficult duck for E to find if he has the ace, so maybe a rethink is needed, knowing who I was playing might help, as I often get a read off less than top class opps.

If you held x 1098xxx Axx Jxx, how would you discard? I see zero reason to infer that LHO would not stiff his Ace, if he has it. Now, it is reasonable, I think, to infer that x 1098xxx AJxx xx is more like a 2H bid than is the 1=6=3=3 hand. Btw, I think it about 10-1 that LHO has the diamond Ace, absent knowin* west is insane.

I take the club hook, since it wins 50% of the 3-3 hands and 2/3 of the 2=4. It also wins all of the 1=5 hands, which are not impossible.
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#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-October-09, 04:24

View Postmikeh, on 2019-October-08, 23:27, said:

If you held x 1098xxx Axx Jxx, how would you discard? I see zero reason to infer that LHO would not stiff his Ace, if he has it. Now, it is reasonable, I think, to infer that x 1098xxx AJxx xx is more like a 2H bid than is the 1=6=3=3 hand. Btw, I think it about 10-1 that LHO has the diamond Ace, absent knowin* west is insane.

I take the club hook, since it wins 50% of the 3-3 hands and 2/3 of the 2=4. It also wins all of the 1=5 hands, which are not impossible.


I discard 3 hearts from that.

The reason for ducking is that if declarer has AKQx, KQJ, xx, AKxx or xxx, AKJ in the minors he will need a second diamond trick, and he will have little choice but to take the finesse of the 10 if you win, but it's a difficult one to duck without giving a tell.
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#5 User is online   cherdano 

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Posted 2019-October-09, 05:34

View Postmikeh, on 2019-October-08, 23:27, said:

If you held x 1098xxx Axx Jxx, how would you discard? I see zero reason to infer that LHO would not stiff his Ace, if he has it.

Personally, with that hand as West I'd be worried that declarer has AKQx KQJ xx AKxx where pitching a diamond gives away the diamond guess. Obviously declarer might think I am not insane enough to bid 2 on x T98xxx Jxxx xx but who knows, I might be, or he might think I might :D
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#6 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2019-October-09, 05:37

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-October-09, 04:24, said:

I discard 3 hearts from that.

The reason for ducking is that if declarer has AKQx, KQJ, xx, AKxx or xxx, AKJ in the minors he will need a second diamond trick, and he will have little choice but to take the finesse of the 10 if you win, but it's a difficult one to duck without giving a tell.

Hmmm....’little choice but to take the finesse of the 10 if you win’? Weird. If west flies with the diamond Ace, declarer has 12 tricks, so of course west ducks. However, so long as declarer plays west for the Ace, he is cold on the hand you gave him.
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#7 User is online   cherdano 

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Posted 2019-October-09, 06:09

View Postmikeh, on 2019-October-09, 05:37, said:

Hmmm....’little choice but to take the finesse of the 10 if you win’? Weird. If west flies with the diamond Ace, declarer has 12 tricks, so of course west ducks. However, so long as declarer plays west for the Ace, he is cold on the hand you gave him.

If I can save you two a little arguing, you wrote that West will very likely hold A (as otherwise he wouldn't have bid 2). Cyberyeti thought you think that W is likely to hold A as East would have taken his A if he had it. So Cyber explained why East would duck, and what would happen if E had taken the ace, and you respond by explaining what would happen if W had taken the ace.

Not sure you actually disagree on anything here...
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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-October-09, 06:24

View Postcherdano, on 2019-October-09, 06:09, said:

If I can save you two a little arguing, you wrote that West will very likely hold A (as otherwise he wouldn't have bid 2). Cyberyeti thought you think that W is likely to hold A as East would have taken his A if he had it. So Cyber explained why East would duck, and what would happen if E had taken the ace, and you respond by explaining what would happen if W had taken the ace.

Not sure you actually disagree on anything here...


Yeah, my concern was the situation where W's hand is x, 1098xxx, Jxxx(x), x(x) where I'd consider bidding 2. I'd almost rather not have an ace coming in over 2, it makes it less likely opps slam makes. Knowing your opponent helps here.
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