[lenze]

MP's

S-KJ4
H-AT974
D-5
C-AKJ9


S-A2
H-J3
D-AQJT9
C-8532

OK , you’ve overbid again and find yourself in 6 Clubs with the Heart King led. You win the Ace and led a diamond to your Ace and run the Diamond Queen. West covers and you ruff. So far, so good. Now should you Cash a high club, return to Spade Ace and finesse for the Club Queen, or should you play Ace, King of clubs and if the Queen does not fall, lead a Spade to the Ace and finesse the Jack in an attempt to rid yourself of the heart loser?

[inquiry]

Quote

MP's

S-KJ4
H-AT974
D-5
C-AKJ9


S-A2
H-J3
D-AQJT9
C-8532

OK , you’ve overbid again and find yourself in 6 Clubs with the Heart King led. You win the Ace and led a diamond to your Ace and run the Diamond Queen. West covers and you ruff. So far, so good. Now should you Cash a high club, return to Spade Ace and finesse for the Club Queen, or should you play Ace, King of clubs and if the Queen does not fall, lead a Spade to the Ace and finesse the Jack in an attempt to rid yourself of the heart loser?

Ignoring 5-0 club split, cashing the ACE then hook gives you roughly 51% chance of making. While banging the AK of clubs drops the Q or Qx only 32.8% of the time. However, if you hook the second round of clubs and it loses, you are fairly sure down as they will take the heart QUEEN. Of the remaining 67.2% of the time when the club QUEEN does not fall, roughly 1/2 the time (perhpas they can ruff second spade and cash heart before you can push the heart away), but the odds of Qx or Q of spades are only 2% or so.

So all in all, cashing club AK, then taking the heart spade hook seems a superior line...odds roughly 51% compared with 65% or so.

Ben

[luis]

I guess that cashing the cA and cK is a better like than the c finesse. Because the c finesse is just 50% and the combined cA-cK or spade finesse is better than 50%.

[Free]

I think you forget something: west has allready shown 8HCP! East has probably SQ so I wouldn't count on the S finesse. Since W plays his DK so quickly he might have CQ. I'd play CA and finesse the CQ...

[inquiry]

Quote

I think you forget something: west has allready shown 8HCP! East has probably SQ so I wouldn't count on the S finesse. Since W plays his DK so quickly he might have CQ. I'd play CA and finesse the CQ...

I wouldn't put too much stock in the point count thingee here..... and there is a variety of reasons for this. First, the auction was not given. Even a first seat pass by West is possible.. and if north opened, it is very likely the bidding was too high for him to bid anyway....(it would be interesting to see how I came to play in my four card suit headed by an 8, I assume a new minor force by me somehow.

Second... because WEST has shown up with 8 hcp... you state "
East has probably SQ so I wouldn't count on the S finesse." The assumption here 8 + 2 means maybe a bid... yet then you turn around and DO finessee EAST for the club QUEEN... if he has "room" for a black queen, there is no statistical advantage of one over the other.

No, these seems a straight combine the odds problem like originally stated. I wouldn't read too much in the cover of the Diamond Queen, for one thing it might have been caused by only a doubleton diamond (opening lead looks like someone who had been counting on the diamond King and wanted to set up a heart trick, since surely north bid hearts at least once, probably opening that suit...why else lead King from at most KQx kind of holding?

[lenze]

Thanks for the input: FYI, here was the auction. I held the north hand.

South Dealt - No interference

S- 1 Diamond
N- 1 Heart
S- 2 Clubs (YUk- I lost my 1NT card)
N- 2 Spades(GF)
S- 2NT
N-3 Clubs
S- 3NT
N- 6 Clubs (We need a board)

Another kicker in the problem:
West, a novice player, doubled 6 clubs. Do you play the same??

Cheers!!

[Free]

Yes ;D ;D