gszes, on 2019-May-08, 15:12, said:
They cannot have started with the JT7 since the 7 appears first trick and surely tossing the J from JT7 can never hurt unless you are bending too far over the table. Once the 7 appears from partner what is the best play to dissuade declarer from playing p for Kx? Peeps toss honors against me like snowflakes I gotta start playing against an easier crowd:)) but I like your point
If declarer going to guess right, they going to guess right. But you *want* them playing for Kx offside. You own them by simply not screwing up by playing K 2nd round whenever you hold onside KJT, KT9, KJ9, K97, KT7, KJ7, and getting an undeserved 2nd trick whenever they outsmart themselves trying to play for K? offside.
As declarer, the whole point of playing for the percentage restricted choice plays is that you don't have to play any guessing games, any spy vs spy games. You simply decide beforehand that you are picking up 6 of the ten relevant combinations and don't let the opponent's carding dissuade you when those combos are still in play, knowing this is the best you can do, and other strategies risk worse.
On this particular combination, you can't make any exploitative play for any advantage, unless it is from a player that pops K from K?? thrid onside for no particular reason. If you decide that someone "always" plays JT from JT9, if you cater to that, then you lose all the KJT onsides for a wash.
This is unlike the AKT9xx vs xxx combo, where if you knew for 100% certainty that someone always falsecards Q from QJ tight offside you can exploit them for a very tiny percentage gain that isn't worth it if you are the tiniest bit unsure about your target.