[plaur]

---

Matchpoints
Opponents experienced internationals.
1NT 12-14
2♠ minors
2NT equal length in minors
3♠ splinter, good hand

Lead? Why?

[nige1]

I rank
1. Heart.
2. Spade.
3. Diamond.
4. Club.

[Cyberyeti]

nige1, on 2019-March-23, 15:11, said:

I rank
1. Spade.
2. Diamond.
3. Club.
4. Heart.

I'm leading a major, and I think I like hearts over spades, but could do with a bit of clarification as to how many minor suit cards and what strength dummy has shown.

[plaur]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-March-23, 15:22, said:

I'm leading a major, and I think I like hearts over spades, but could do with a bit of clarification as to how many minor suit cards and what strength dummy has shown.

Usually at least 45/54 minors, slammish if partner has the right values.

Additional question: what does west need in spades to double 3♠ splinter for the lead?

[Cyberyeti]

plaur, on 2019-March-23, 15:56, said:

Usually at least 45/54 minors, slammish if partner has the right values.

Additional question: what does west need in spades to double 3♠ splinter for the lead?

Quite a lot and a holding he doesn't mind being led through once (assuming a singleton on the deck), QJ9x(x) minimum

The stronger I expect dummy to be, the more dangerous my situation is, we may have to set up a trick at trick 1 to get as many as 2 or 3 and a spade gets more attractive (say partner has Q♠ and an entry).

[LBengtsson]

♠10. to not block suit

[dsLawsd]

Ask Zia?? This looks like a need for brilliancy where you try to set up and cash partner's spade.

So I might try the Spade K in case dummy has the stiff Queen.
Not very optimistic about any lead!

[msjennifer]

deleted because of oversight in submission.

[Cyberyeti]

msjennifer, on 2019-March-24, 02:35, said:

SIR,My personal answer for obvious reasons is the SPADE 10.

Spade 10 is poor with a singleton likely to be on the table, also it's matchpoints and opps appear to have plenty to spare so your target may well be 3 tricks. Singleton J or Q can be disastrous if declarer has the 9 and possibly 8 if you lead the 10. I prefer the K or a small one to the 10 here.

[rmnka447]

Looking at a 5 count, it's likely that partner has an 8-9 count.

The 2 NT call provides some information -- opener has equal length in both minors which means either 2-2, 3-3, or 4-4. If it's 2-2, opener has to be 5-4 in the majors. If it's 3-3, then opener is either 4-3 or 5-2 in the majors. If it's 4-4 in the minors, then opener must be 3-2 in the majors.

I think we can rule out opener with 4-4 in the minors, because then partner would have something like 5-5/6-5 in the majors and couldn't make any call.

With dummy advertising ♠ shortness, I'm concerned that a ♠ lead could give opener a trick that might otherwise be gotten. and it seems more likely that with shortness in dummy, opener is more likely to have longer ♠ than ♥.

At MPs, I think I'm going passive.

7 ♥ lead for me.

[Cyberyeti]

rmnka447, on 2019-March-24, 12:50, said:

Looking at a 5 count, it's likely that partner has an 8-9 count.

The 2 NT call provides some information -- opener has equal length in both minors which means either 2-2, 3-3, or 4-4. If it's 2-2, opener has to be 5-4 in the majors. If it's 3-3, then opener is either 4-3 or 5-2 in the majors. If it's 4-4 in the minors, then opener must be 3-2 in the majors.

I think we can rule out opener with 4-4 in the minors, because then partner would have something like 5-5/6-5 in the majors and couldn't make any call.

With dummy advertising ♠ shortness, I'm concerned that a ♠ lead could give opener a trick that might otherwise be gotten. and it seems more likely that with shortness in dummy, opener is more likely to have longer ♠ than ♥.

At MPs, I think I'm going passive.

7 ♥ lead for me.

There is no reason to assume partner has an 8 count, the splinter showed extras and slam interest, I was playing partner for more like 5 or 6, and give declarer 4333/5233.
The question is does partner have ♠QJxx(x) and a card (we want to lead a big spade) or does he have ♠Q and a card (where we want to lead a small one) or J9xx(x) with the stiff Q on the table (where we want to lead the K) or does he simply have hearts over dummy's Hx.

[plaur]

rmnka447, on 2019-March-24, 12:50, said:

Looking at a 5 count, it's likely that partner has an 8-9 count.

The 2 NT call provides some information -- opener has equal length in both minors which means either 2-2, 3-3, or 4-4. If it's 2-2, opener has to be 5-4 in the majors. If it's 3-3, then opener is either 4-3 or 5-2 in the majors. If it's 4-4 in the minors, then opener must be 3-2 in the majors.

I think we can rule out opener with 4-4 in the minors, because then partner would have something like 5-5/6-5 in the majors and couldn't make any call.

With dummy advertising ♠ shortness, I'm concerned that a ♠ lead could give opener a trick that might otherwise be gotten. and it seems more likely that with shortness in dummy, opener is more likely to have longer ♠ than ♥.

At MPs, I think I'm going passive.

7 ♥ lead for me.

Above analysis was mine too. I went passive with ♥7

Partner had ♠QJxxx and ♥A. Declarer ♠A9xx. After ♥A was knocked out he had 12, on ♠ lead 10 tricks

[Cyberyeti]

plaur, on 2019-March-24, 16:27, said:

Above analysis was mine too. I went passive with ♥7

Partner had ♠QJxxx and ♥A. Declarer ♠A9xx. After ♥A was knocked out he had 12, on ♠ lead 10 tricks

Sounds like opps got it completely wrong and 6m was cold ?

[thepossum]

Sorry deleted since I had errors in my sim

Sorry all

Just lead 4th highest heart or club

Although sim did seem to suggest 2/10 of S was best chance of a top

[masse24]

Late to the party, but I too would lead the ♥7.

[msjennifer]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-March-24, 05:51, said:

Spade 10 is poor with a singleton likely to be on the table, also it's matchpoints and opps appear to have plenty to spare so your target may well be 3 tricks. Singleton J or Q can be disastrous if declarer has the 9 and possibly 8 if you lead the 10. I prefer the K or a small one to the 10 here.

Sir, sorry but I made the unpardonable oversright of thinking that I was West and the singleton spade is on my right.I apologise for making a silly lead due to my overlooking the diagram and imagining something entirely nonexistent situation.Due to my unpardonable oversight ,since I was under the thought that my LHO held QJxx and RHO a singleton 9 of spades.The 10 lead IN THAT case smothers the 9 and if the mistake of splitting the QJ is made then partner ducks and on gaining the lead we collect 4 tricks in spades.Sorry again and I am deleting my answer.Your explanation is lucid and to the point and I agree wholeheartedly with the same.Sir,thanks a lot.I correct my lead to the small spade.

[miamijd]

Low spade seems normal here.

You know that North is probably 3-3 in the minors and that South has a good hand, so it's likely that the opponents have lots of tricks. On those sorts of hands, you have to build a trick right away. Your partner just needs the Qs to build a trick in spades; he needs a lot more to build a H trick.

And even if you lead a spade and find declarer with the AQ, it's quite possible that you haven't really given up anything -- that declarer would have gotten the extra trick himself in the minors.

Cheers,
Mike