BBO Discussion Forums: Lucky lead - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Lucky lead Mea culpa

#1 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,128
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2019-January-09, 12:32


League Match.
Aggregate Scoring.

Rubbing my nose in another of my messes :(
(I excelled myself on this hand) :)

Please press next to reveal
dummy and the first 2 tricks.

You win LHO;s lead with K.
Your 9 wins the 2nd trick.

How do you continue from here?

0

#2 User is offline   apollo1201 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,077
  • Joined: 2014-June-01

Posted 2019-January-09, 13:55

There is way to hesitate.

If you know your opps, after winning your CQ continuation, how likely will they switch to H and get their 5 or more tricks, or how likely will they continue S, or open the H but block themselves, or crash C AK on the same trick?

On the contrary, D breaking 33 or Hx / stiff H / stiff QJ with West or stiff QJ with East is an assessable likelihood (for someone better than me with maths, a guess close to 45% as 36 + 1/2 x 48 x something that I imagine is a bit less than 1/2 but can’t compute🤣).

You picked the wrong assessment?

After Xmas at trick 1 and trick 2, Xmas by opps can’t continue, so I’d go for Xmas by the deck and play on D.
1

#3 User is offline   cherdano 

  • 5555
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,516
  • Joined: 2003-September-04
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2019-January-09, 17:10

What else are they going to do other than switching to hearts? Playing Q is just hoping for West to go up with Kxxx IMO.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
1

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users