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Lucky lead Mea culpa

#1 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2019-January-09, 12:32

League Match.
Aggregate Scoring.

Rubbing my nose in another of my messes :(
(I excelled myself on this hand) :)

Please press next to reveal
dummy and the first 2 tricks.

You win LHO;s lead with K.
Your 9 wins the 2nd trick.

How do you continue from here?


#2 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2019-January-09, 13:55

There is way to hesitate.

If you know your opps, after winning your CQ continuation, how likely will they switch to H and get their 5 or more tricks, or how likely will they continue S, or open the H but block themselves, or crash C AK on the same trick?

On the contrary, D breaking 33 or Hx / stiff H / stiff QJ with West or stiff QJ with East is an assessable likelihood (for someone better than me with maths, a guess close to 45% as 36 + 1/2 x 48 x something that I imagine is a bit less than 1/2 but cant compute🤣).

You picked the wrong assessment?

After Xmas at trick 1 and trick 2, Xmas by opps cant continue, so Id go for Xmas by the deck and play on D.

#3 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2019-January-09, 17:10

What else are they going to do other than switching to hearts? Playing Q is just hoping for West to go up with Kxxx IMO.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke

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