[eagles123]

I really suck bad at MP, obviously this hand is simple at Imp

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lead: 10♥

assuming winning the first trick, i can't see any particular reason why not?? and besides if u duck they just continue hearts anyway, what's the best plan?

many thanks

Eagles

[The_Badger]

A good illustrative hand, eagles. I'm trying to work out the percentage plays in my head and its getting the better of me so far. Usual plan in NT is trying to set up winners in your longest suit so a ♣ to the Q feels the right move: whether it is, is another matter!

p.s. I prefer IMPs too

[Tramticket]

My thoughts:
(1) I may as well take trick 1. I don't want a diamond switch.
(2) I want to play clubs whilst I still have controls in the other two suits. Spades can wait.
(3) Dropping a singleton king of clubs is a long-shot and won't help us set up clubs, so I should just play a club towards the queen and retain the stopper. If it loses to west's king, they are likely to run three or four more hearts and we fall back on trying for the spade drop. East might duck a round of clubs - in that case I switch to spades. If East rises with the king on a club I have two chances now of either black suit breaking after they cash their heart winners.
[Note: it must be worse to play for the drop in spades at trick 2 - if it fails, you will lose the spade as well as at least one club and the hearts].

I feel that many other pairs might be in 3NT after upgrading the North hand to a 15 count (and opening a strong 1NT or rebidding NT after a 1♠ opening if playing a weak NT). If you think that this is likely, you don't want there to be a play for 9 tricks so you might as well play for lines to make 8 tricks (or even 7 depending how the defenders play to the early tricks).

[ggwhiz]

I could play spades and if I have to lose one hope to throw them in later for a lead away from the club King but I can't cash the last spade for that assuming a diamond shift after the hearts.

I make 1nt but if much of the field plays 1nt forcing they will play in 2♠ making or plus one most often so plan B.

I think my best shot in that case is Ace and another club and in a run of the mill field easts will fly with the King if they have it to play more hearts, especially if the spades split 3-3. Therefore if rho plays low I may well duck and cheer for Kx on my left.

[pescetom]

Tramticket, on 2018-November-06, 08:28, said:

I feel that many other pairs might be in 3NT after upgrading the North hand to a 15 count (and opening a strong 1NT or rebidding NT after a 1♠ opening if playing a weak NT).

Those who play strong NT are likely to be in 3NT however it goes - if they open 1♠ it is improbable they will pass 1NT here, even if they don't play it as forcing or semi-forcing.

[gszes]

I voted for other mainly because I could not care less which opp had 4 spades if they broke 42. I would knock out the 4th spade and be happy making 1n where anyone in a spade contract has at best a 5050 shot at making 2 spades and beating our score. IF I needed a top to win a tourney I would go after clubs at trick 2 via the ace and another toward the Q and probably ducking (hoping for Kx in lho) if rho plays small to the 2nc club. I just do not see much reason here to go for broke when normally I expect a decent score just for making 1n an if by chance spades break 33 I can still go try for my max by playing on clubs and remember the opps would have to pitch on those spades before seeing me play on clubs which might be of huge benefit for me.

[Dumoti]

You have to play it for +120. If you're cold for 150, then you're getting a bad board against those people who are in 3NT. Similarly, if you are going +90 then you are losing out to the people who bid:

1♠ 1NT
2♣ 3♣
P

Play for something like ♣KJTx behind the queen and spades 3-3.

[Wackojack]

Hearts are more likely to be 5-3 than 4-4.
Play spades 3-3: = 8 tricks 9 if lucky
If spades 4-2: = 7 tricks

Play up to K clubs and clubs 3-2:
If K onside I make 8 tricks or 9 if East plays low AND spades 3-3 otherwise 8
If K offside then if spades 4-2 I make 6 tricks (opps cash 4 hearts and switch to a diamond) If spades 3-3 then I make 8 tricks

Close decision. I think just play off the spades

[kuhchung]

I'm with gszes, just play to make and hope for an extra later. sounds like I'm terrible at MP (and bridge) too

[Dinarius]

Interesting hand.

Round these parts, a lot will respond 2♣️, and the contract will be 2NT after a weak reverse. Anyone in 3NT needs their heads examined - marginal games at MPs are a bad proposition. So, we can forget about whether or not you can make 9 tricks.

The issue is whether you can make 8 and match those having to make it in 2NT.

7 tricks are virtually certain assuming ♠️ no worse than 4/2 and ❤️ no worse than 5/3.

You increase your chances of 8 by winning ❤️A and then small to ♣️Q first. If ♠️ are right, they’re always right.

A hand which demonstrates why some consider MPs the greatest test in Bridge. Thanks for posting.

D.

[hrothgar]

Dinarius, on 2018-November-07, 12:56, said:

Anyone in 3NT needs their heads examined - marginal games at MPs are a bad proposition. So, we can forget about whether or not you can make 9 tricks.

I would not be at all surprised to see a fair number of 1N - 3N auctions

[Winstonm]

If clubs and spades are both wrong, I can go down by starting clubs first. If I start spades, as long as they are no worse than 4-2 I always make and still have the chance for overtricks.

Note: I would duck the heart and try the affect of playing the J on the second heart, as if holding QJx. Not that it will accomplish anything on this deal but it is always good to screw with the opponents' heads.

[johnu]

Dumoti, on 2018-November-06, 16:29, said:

You have to play it for +120. If you're cold for 150, then you're getting a bad board against those people who are in 3NT.

If 3NT is cold, then any part score is a bad board against a game.

[Dinarius]

hrothgar, on 2018-November-07, 13:29, said:

I would not be at all surprised to see a fair number of 1N - 3N auctions

Holding ♦️8 as his best spot card, if S invites or puts me in game, I would not be happy.

At MPs, a partscore is only bad if everyone is in it and you’re not - which they won’t be on this hand.

If I make 9 tricks by playing small to ♣️Q at trick 2 (❤️ turning out to be 4/4), I will be average plus. I’m always happy with average plus at MPs.

D.

[rmnka447]

At Imps, you play on ♠ and as long as the opponents follow to 2 rounds, you make your contract by continuing to play on ♠.

At MPs, I'm in the leading a low ♣ at trick 2 toward the ♣ Q. If the ♣ K lies favorably, you may bring in the whole ♣ suit. And whether it's favorable or not, you may still do so if ♣ J10 are doubleton (with the lovely ♣ 9 in the North hand.

[Tramticket]

What was the full deal Rowland?

[eagles123]

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I played A club, club, i agree that low to Q is better. anyway the opps defended well for -1

the traveller (mixed field to say the least)

1X 3n= (N)
2X 1n+1 (N)
1X 3C= (N)
1X 2S= (N)
2X 1N= (N)
1X 1N = (S)
1X 3H-1 (W)
1X 1N-1 (S)
1X 3N-1 (N)
1X 3N-2 (N)

[Tramticket]

Looks like most often played by North, where a heart lead will be helpful and a spade lead will do no harm. You are always up against it once West has led a red suit.

[ggwhiz]

eagles123, on 2018-November-09, 09:07, said:

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the traveller (mixed field to say the least)

3nt making, really?

I played the same as you but ignored advice from my early years that against a field like this there is no such thing as a bad plus score.

Not that long after I was told that playing in such fields would hurt the overall integrity of your game (too much randomness) by good players that increasingly played only in tournaments.

I like to play though so adopted the strategy of bidding/playing as if the opponents are good, even the palookas. Still maintain that with my regular partner for the most part, take a lot of lumps but are still competitive when its tournament time. Maybe this strategy should only apply to bidding?

[mikeh]

I'm late to this thread, but was astounded at the earlier responses, where most elected to play on clubs.

First point: forget about tables where they reach 3N. You are not competing against them no matter what you do unless you totally screw up and go down 1 when someone in 3N is making 8 tricks, which seems remote...if the cards are that friendly, you'd really need to screw up to take only 6.

I was going to write a long analysis, but it really would be very long and would have to contain several simplifications, in terms of the odds within the black suits, so I gave up.

Really simply: playing on spades virtually assures a plus score.

Plus, and this is very important at mps in a less than truly expert field, when spades break 3-3, we have a great chance to have the opps misdefend. I would pitch 2 clubs on the spades....now all I need is for the opp with 3 clubs to pitch one...and they can't stop me making 8 or 9 tricks...the number depending on the heart break (ok, maybe 7 tricks but I'd be betting no-one has 6 hearts).

This makes playing on spades far more attractive than the 35.5% of a 3-3 break (a priori) might suggest.

On the other hand, we need a lot of luck in clubs to be able to get anywhere....while 1=4 with the K on our right is useful, I will assume that we have about a 50% chance of getting a second club trick. We have about a 35% chance of running the clubs for one loser.

If we can't set up the clubs in two rounds, we are probably going down. We have at best a 50% chance of setting up the clubs and 35% of that time we don't need to do it now...we can run the spades first. So playing on clubs first helps us ONLY when spades do not break and clubs behave...or about 33% of the time.

Note that when clubs don't behave, the defence is trivial and we have no upside. Playing on spades, meanwhile, is not merely slightly higher percentage against perfect defence but offers a significant likelihood of inducing misdefence.

My gut told me that playing on spades was clearly right. My analysis surprised me (it was far more complex than suggested here) but still confirms what my gut told me: playing on spades is significantly superior to playing on clubs.