Playing the odds

#1 portia2

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Posted 2016-September-03, 06:51

4S S Lead 4D MPs

4 ♠ is cold. The 4♦ lead could be a doubleton , singleton or from 3 or more cards. You can play off the K and Q♦ to get rid of the club loser. Is it too risky?

Thanks

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#2 Vampyr

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Posted 2016-September-03, 07:51

portia2, on 2016-September-03, 06:51, said:

4S S Lead 4D MPs

4 ♠ is cold. The 4♦ lead could be a doubleton , singleton or from 3 or more cards. You can play off the K and Q♦ to get rid of the club loser. Is it too risky?

Thanks

Why did the player lead a diamond? Maybe his club holding looks risky to lead from and a heart seemed unattractive... a player in this position might lead a passive trump, depending on the bidding.

So the diamond could well be a singleton, it is pretty low and is not from honours. It could be fourth from 10xxx(x), or possibly third from 10xx. What does the player lead from three small? Middle from eg 843?

Right now you are in an average position, perhaps above average if a club lead is plausible -- eg they could have been bid, although a player might lead a singleton anyway.

So the main question is whether the diamond is a singleton, and I find it difficult to determine this. Play the diamond if you need a top.

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein

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#3 Kaitlyn S

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Posted 2016-September-03, 08:43

Did you bid diamonds?

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#4 1eyedjack

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Posted 2016-September-03, 08:54

If there is a singleton diamond, you cannot stop them getting a Diamond ruff.

So you might as well go for the Club pitch.

Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. m Posted Image

r-m

ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq

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#5 portia2

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Posted 2016-September-03, 10:29

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-September-03, 08:43, said:

Did you bid diamonds?

No:bidding went: 1♠ - p -2nt - p -3♣ - p -4♠

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#6 Kaitlyn S

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Posted 2016-September-03, 20:22

portia2, on 2016-September-03, 10:29, said:

No:bidding went: 1♠ - p -2nt - p -3♣ - p -4♠

So, a red suit is a logical lead. Leading a suit with an ace without the king isn't logical unless something in the bidding says tricks are going away (not this auction!)

So half the time the leader holds the HA and a diamond is the most logical lead from any holding and the other half it's a tossup. So much of the time leader is leading a diamond regardless of his holding. I would play diamonds hoping to discard the club.

If the bidding had gone something like 1S-2D-2H-2S-3H-4S, now the leader risks seeing the defensive club tricks going on dummy's diamond suit with a passive diamond lead, so I would suspect a singleton diamond.

I've already told you more than I know so if this is baffling, don't worry - read it again in a few months and it may make more sense.