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5H or pass?

#1 User is offline   Tryggolaf 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 03:53



At IMPs, would you bid 5H or pass?

Pro 5H:

- Not much defence (possibly a trick with opps's 2-1 since partner has to have 6, and something in )
- You could lure them into bidding 5 which might be down

Pro pass:

- Possibility of phantom saving, not certain 4 makes
- 5 might go -3

I don't have specific agreements with this partner with regards to the upper and lower limit of the 2-bid.
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#2 User is online   helene_t 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 04:11

We have 1 or 0 defensive tricks depending on whether A cashes or not. Maybe p has A so we can get a diamond ruff but if hearts are 0-3 it only works if he decides to lead A and continue diamonds. Of course p might have a trick somewhere else. But probably they can make 11 or 12 tricks, maybe 13.

Pass. -500 vs -450 is just 2 IMPs but bidding might well push them into a makeable slam.
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#3 User is offline   alok c 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 05:31

Pass as it appears to be a phantom sacrifice to bid 5H.
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#4 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 06:22

Interesting that in the first two posts we get one saying the opps may make 7S and the other only 3S. :)

I'd bet 4S is making, but am not convinced about 5H because a) there is a (small) risk of pushing them into slam and b) the expected gain is not very much (strong possibility of -3, hardly any possibility of just -1). It might depend on state of the match but I'd probably pass.

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#5 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 06:31

The time to bid 5 was last round - not now.
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#6 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 07:12

View PostPhilKing, on 2015-June-23, 06:31, said:

The time to bid 5 was last round - not now.

Interesting idea. But I wonder, why take a dive when they haven't found a fit yet?

As for the actual hand, I pass. I want to be pretty sure it is right before I sacrifice at IMPs, where the loss is usually substantially larger than the gain.
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#7 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 08:00

Pass. The only upside of bidding is that they might bid 5 and go down 1. Not a likely result.

Maybe 5x is par, but it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to aim for that target.

Now, if you give me a 5th heart....





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#8 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 08:11

View Postbillw55, on 2015-June-23, 07:12, said:

Interesting idea. But I wonder, why take a dive when they haven't found a fit yet?

You know they have one. By taking a dive you may prevent them finding it - or encourage them to guess wrong.
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#9 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 08:18

View Postgordontd, on 2015-June-23, 08:11, said:

You know they have one. By taking a dive you may prevent them finding it - or encourage them to guess wrong.

Oh yes, I forgot about diamonds! Silly minor suits ...
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#10 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 08:21

View Postgordontd, on 2015-June-23, 08:11, said:

You know they have one. By taking a dive you may prevent them finding it - or encourage them to guess wrong.
Robson and Segal also recommend pre-emption before opponents find their as yet undiscovered fit.
  • I'd just bid a cowardly 4.
  • Now, over 4, IMO 5 = 10, Pass = 8.

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#11 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 09:01

View Postbillw55, on 2015-June-23, 07:12, said:

Interesting idea. But I wonder, why take a dive when they haven't found a fit yet?

As for the actual hand, I pass. I want to be pretty sure it is right before I sacrifice at IMPs, where the loss is usually substantially larger than the gain.


I feel like saccing at NV IMPs is probably more desirable than at MPs. If you're 1 too far off it's usually not a disaster, ditto if both of you were going one down, whereas at MPs either of those could net you a near bottom on pushy sacs. I will probably pass now, but would definitely have bid 5 on the round before.
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#12 User is offline   stoicaadi 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 09:35

I will pass because I don't want to push them in 6Sp (IMO they have slam)
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#13 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 10:16

OK, a few things here:

1. If we dive in 5 and it is a matrix of, say, 40/40/20 for -3/-2/-1 we only to setting 4 a smidgeon of the time for pass to be right.

2. The opponents are never subsiding in 4 and then miraculously finding their cold slam after we save.

I would have bid 5 the first time. Its pretty tough for LHO not to bid 5, with, say, a 4-6, and there are other ways for it to win.
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#14 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 10:25

I think I am the only one who does not see bidding 5 previous round as clear as others. Passing over X is interesting option in order to not push them although I don't think I'd do it.
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#15 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 10:56

View PostPhil, on 2015-June-23, 10:16, said:

2. The opponents are never subsiding in 4 and then miraculously finding their cold slam after we save.

Well, *good* opponents aren't. But with randoms in the MBC, who knows? Somewhat often, I do see them stop in a partscore, then bid game after a balance and make it.

Quote

1. If we dive in 5 and it is a matrix of, say, 40/40/20 for -3/-2/-1 we only to setting 4 a smidgeon of the time for pass to be right.

This is what I was thinking about diving at IMPs. We need to be pretty sure it makes.
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#16 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 11:34

View PostMrAce, on 2015-June-23, 10:25, said:

I think I am the only one who does not see bidding 5 previous round as clear as others. Passing over X is interesting option in order to not push them although I don't think I'd do it.

I'm not at all sure that philKing, who made the first comment about the timing of bidding 5, was advocating that action the first time around: I took his comment as pointing out that one should not do it the second time...if you were ever thinking of doing it, do it early or not at all.

I agree 100% with the notion that one doesn't give the opps two chances to describe their hands.

Personally, I would bid 4 and pass.

At this heat, saving is as likely to lose imps as it is to win imps, and meanwhile bidding 5 almost guarantees that we are playing doubled, which removes some possibly better outcomes.

While the opps probably have a playable fit, in diamonds if not spades, it isn't always going to be clear to the opps that they can get there. Let's assume that N doesn't hold 4 spades.....that is surely plausible on round 1 of the auction.

S's double didn't create a force on N-S, and didn't promise game values. So N, without spades, may be forced to pass. Say he has a minimum 3=2=5=3.

Turn to S. Maybe he has a 4=1=4=4. Is it clear that they will always find 5 rather than defend 4x'd?

Even if it is 'obvious' to onlookers that they should be in diamonds, it isn't always obvious to the players at the table, no matter how good they are.

In addition, I once saw someone make a jump overcall on xxx KJ10xxx KQx x, and now 5 rates to fail!

These upsides aren't high probability chances but they weigh in the scales when we are considering an advance save that has, as it's main hope, the chances of winning 3 imps.

Btw, if they bid 5 over 5, I would give long odds that a competent pair will be cold for 5, if not slam. Competent pairs take the money, via the double, in these auctions unless one or both have significant offensive extras.

As for the notion of passing over the double, I hate it. Why are we giving them all that bidding space on a hand on which we know that they may need to find a fit and a level? Why are we offering either of them a cheap heart cuebid at some point? Passing is an insult to the opps, and a needless one at that. If they are so bad that they screw up after a pass, why assume they will do better if we pre-empt?
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#17 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 12:21

View Postmikeh, on 2015-June-23, 11:34, said:

I'm not at all sure that philKing, who made the first comment about the timing of bidding 5, was advocating that action the first time around: I took his comment as pointing out that one should not do it the second time...if you were ever thinking of doing it, do it early or not at all.


If PhilKing meant what you think he meant, then I am % 100 with him.

I'd also bid 4 and pass. Bad thing about direct 5 is that their big fit may be in diamonds. Imagine pd holding something like Qxx KJTxxx Qx xx. OR worse JTx KJTxxx K xxx. You are just simply bailing out -800 or -1100. They can make slam of course but what you see will be just game being played at the other table. After all our teammates have total of 24-25 hcp combined and they won't have too much space to find fit or show fit at 4-5 level after 4 and investigate at the same time if they have slam with their 24-15 hcp. That Qx or Kx pd may have ahs probably no value in defense but opponents do not know this. All they know is that these cards are missing in their hands.
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#18 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 15:44

Fwiw, I polled this hand in BW. Asking what they would bid over X.

http://bridgewinners...-your-strategy/

75 votes total as of now.

21 % 5

72 % 4 intending to pass next round.

0 % 4 intending to bid again over 4 spade or 5 dia.

0 % Pass

3 % 3

4 % Do something genius/fancy.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#19 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 16:53

View Postmikeh, on 2015-June-23, 11:34, said:

I'm not at all sure that philKing, who made the first comment about the timing of bidding 5, was advocating that action the first time around: I took his comment as pointing out that one should not do it the second time...if you were ever thinking of doing it, do it early or not at all.



Yep. I don't hate an immediate jump to 5, but I think 4 edges it. My ambition is just to defend a non slam, and to do that I want to catch leftie with a heavy 4 bid.
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#20 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2015-June-23, 17:46

View PostMrAce, on 2015-June-23, 15:44, said:

Fwiw, I polled this hand in BW. Asking what they would bid over X.

http://bridgewinners...-your-strategy/

75 votes total as of now.

21 % 5

72 % 4 intending to pass next round.

0 % 4 intending to bid again over 4 spade or 5 dia.

0 % Pass

3 % 3

4 % Do something genius/fancy.


Added my vote for 4 then pass, but I don't hate an immediate 5.
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