[whereagles]

Cross imps, V vs NV, you hold

♠ 97xxx
♥ KJxx
♦ Tx
♣ xx

LHO...RHO
pass..2NT
3♥....3♠
4NT...5♣
6NT

3♥ was transfer, and 4NT RKCB for spades.

Your lead?

[Free]

I like 2nd longest suit (had some great results with it). Here it's a complete shot in the dark, but I'll still go for it. If p has ♥Q or A they're history. I'll lead small ♥.

[hrothgar]

The opps rate to have a minimum of 7 spades between them
I hold another 5

I don't see a need to attack with a Heart so the passive Spade lead is looking mighty attractive...

[TimG]

hrothgar, on Feb 27 2005, 04:46 PM, said:

The opps rate to have a minimum of 7 spades between them
I hold another 5

Are you sure about that? Responder transferred to spades, but then didn't seem to let the partnership get out in 6♠ even if opener had some preference for playing in spades. The transfer might simply have been a misdirection. Or, maybe responder has three kings and figured he could find out everything he wanted to know by setting spades and asking for keycards (whoops, I have a king, I guess that's not it). I don't know, but I'm far from confident that responder actually has spades.

Unlike Free, I'm far from confident that a heart lead kills them even if partner does have the queen. And, a heart lead could easily blow up a trick, possibly declarer's 12th.

I'd probably lead a middle spade, like hrothgar. Mostly because it looks like the lead least likely to give away a trick or take away a guess from declarer.

Tim

[TimG]

Jlall, on Feb 27 2005, 04:48 PM, said:

my 5 spades are to the 9. So they still have spade tricks. Further, all minor suit finesses are on

You mean dummy can't hold some minor suit kings?

[hrothgar]

Jlall, on Feb 28 2005, 12:48 AM, said:

my 5 spades are to the 9. So they still have spade tricks. Further, all minor suit finesses are on

Agreed. They have 5 Spade tricks. With this said and done, a Spade lead isn't going to blow a trick. The Heart lead could very easily be into a tenace...

The Heart lead will work spectacularly well if partner has the Ace. Its likely to break the contract if partner has the Heart Queen soemthing on the side. However, I think that its more likely that the opponents hold the Ace and King of Hearts than that partner holds the Ace or Queen.

I could be wrong, especially given the opponent's Spade length. It would be interestng to see a simulation.

[hrothgar]

TimG, on Feb 28 2005, 12:56 AM, said:

hrothgar, on Feb 27 2005, 04:46 PM, said:

The opps rate to have a minimum of 7 spades between them 
I hold another 5

Are you sure about that? Responder transferred to spades, but then didn't seem to let the partnership get out in 6♠ even if opener had some preference for playing in spades. The transfer might simply have been a misdirection.

Guess it is kinda hypocritical for me to trust the opponent's auctions

[flytoox]

I lead Cx. Pd has singleton spade. Both spades and hearts are dangerous suits. Leading DT is quite safe in theory, but it might cost a trick. I thinnk Cx is very safe. If declarer need a club finesse, it is always on.