Posted 2005-February-25, 13:22
I'm going to bid 3♦ here, even though I agree that this hand is only "worth" 2♠. Vulnerable, at IMPs, I would bid 2♠. Here's my reasoning:
Playing in a weak field, a lot of people will just count points. It's certainly true that this hand has a lot of losers, and if partner bids game I expect it to be a poor game more often than a good one. However, there's a great deal of value to being in the field contract here. We have to analyze the expected match points. Assuming that partner will accept a limit raise but will pass 2♠ (which is probably the most likely, and also most interesting situation):
(1) If we bid 4♠, we get a good score if it happens to make. We also get a good score if our (presumably weak) opponents misdefend and let it make. We will get a good score if partner's (superior to the field) declarer play allows the contract to make, and we will also get a good score if the contract is so bad that people are going down two, but some combination of partner's play and opponents defense allows him to hold it to down one.
(2) If we bid 2♠, both partner's declarer play and opponents' defense are taken out of the equation. Most tables will bid the game, and we will beat those where it went down and lose to those where it made. Unfortunately, weak players make more defensive mistakes than play mistakes, so even when the game is poor (as it often will be) it is likely to make at several tables.
So even if 4♠ is, on whole, a rather poor game, it seems like we could easily win by bidding it just because the field is there. I don't want to eliminate the influence of partner's play and opponents' defense.
At IMPs, I will bid what I think the hand is worth and trust teammates defense to beat it if they bid a poor game at the other table.
-- Adam
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit