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A reasonable punt?

#1 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2014-February-27, 17:29

KQ
KQJ
AJ10x
AJxx

Playing MPs, NV vs V, partner opens 3H in second seat. Third seat passes. I reasoned that:
- he wouldn't open 3H in that position with such poor hearts if he didn't have anything outside
- someone must have spades, so I can likely make a spade ruff
- after losing SA, other tricks come from 7 hearts, SK, spade ruff and AKA in minors

3S would be natural, 4C a cuebid. I opted to punt and went straight to 6H (asking for the keycard first, just in case...) Does that seem reasonable?

ahydra
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#2 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-February-27, 18:34

View Postahydra, on 2014-February-27, 17:29, said:

KQ
KQJ
AJ10x
AJxx

Playing MPs, NV vs V, partner opens 3H in second seat. Third seat passes. I reasoned that:
- he wouldn't open 3H in that position with such poor hearts if he didn't have anything outside
- someone must have spades, so I can likely make a spade ruff
- after losing SA, other tricks come from 7 hearts, SK, spade ruff and AKA in minors

3S would be natural, 4C a cuebid. I opted to punt and went straight to 6H (asking for the keycard first, just in case...) Does that seem reasonable?

ahydra


Ace 7th is way more than what i need for a 3 level preempt at these colors. This does not mean i would just sign off in game of course, Even a Q in a minor suit makes it a playable slam, not one that we are proud of but still.... This type of hands are nightmare hands for people like me who has wide range of preempts, i have to confess. But i do not employ my preempt style catering for monsters pd may hold.
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#3 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-February-27, 18:45

This is a 4H bid. You may make 6, but you are more likely to go down.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#4 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-February-27, 19:03

View Postthe hog, on 2014-February-27, 18:45, said:

This is a 4H bid. You may make 6, but you are more likely to go down.


I'd rather worry about missing a grand than going down in 6 if preempt was made by you Posted Image
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#5 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2014-February-27, 19:15

View Postahydra, on 2014-February-27, 17:29, said:

Playing MPs, NV vs V, K Q K Q J A J 10 x A J x x
Partner opens 3H in second seat. Third seat passes. I reasoned that:
- he wouldn't open 3H in that position with such poor hearts if he didn't have anything outside
- someone must have spades, so I can likely make a spade ruff
- after losing SA, other tricks come from 7 hearts, SK, spade ruff and AKA in minors.
3S would be natural, 4C a cuebid. I opted to punt and went straight to 6H (asking for the keycard first, just in case...) Does that seem reasonable ahydra
IMO 4 (if keycard) = 10, 4 = 9, 4N (RKC) = 8, 6 = 6. But depends on pre-empt style.
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#6 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2014-February-27, 22:46

Nah, I have given up trying to guess what 3H might look like to BBF'rs, but at these colors no way opposite my partner.
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#7 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-February-28, 00:03

View PostMrAce, on 2014-February-27, 19:03, said:

I'd rather worry about missing a grand than going down in 6 if preempt was made by you Posted Image


One guy I played with occasionally would open 2H on Jxxx. 3H at this vul on Txxxx
I played against him in a match and the bidding went

2 2NT
3 3
3H

All pass and off 1
Pd held a flat 23 count

2NT enquiry, 3C = bad, 3D = how bad, 3H = very bad.

In case you think this guy is a patzer, David Bird modelled Bro Hermann in the Abbot series on him.

Back to the original problem.
Would not anyone open 3H nv vs vul on say

xxx
Axxxxxx
x
xx

Even give the opener Q of C and it is on a hook or a squeeze, and how will you find out about the CQ?
Normal KC is a waste of time as well. So you find out pd has one KC, so what? You are better placed if you play Weak KC responses.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#8 User is offline   Antrax 

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Posted 2014-February-28, 02:18

View PostMrAce, on 2014-February-27, 18:34, said:

This type of hands are nightmare hands for people like me who has wide range of preempts, i have to confess. But i do not employ my preempt style catering for monsters pd may hold.
Can't you just play something like Ogust/feature ask over 3-level preempts too?
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#9 User is offline   MickyB 

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Posted 2014-February-28, 03:35

- You are much more likely to hold an 8-count than a 4-count a priori; this is especially true for shapely hands
- Dealer passing increases the difference in relative frequencies

It is unclear to me whether those who are saying they need very little for 3H here are advocating weak preempts (eg 3-7 points) or wide-ranging preempts (eg 3-9 points); I think the former is clearly bonkers [I'd prefer the higher frequency of 5-9] and the latter is questionable [will your 3H opening on QJxxxxx and out show a profit when partner plays the odds and assumes that you have an ace more?]
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#10 User is offline   the_clown 

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Posted 2014-February-28, 04:12

I would just bid 4. Even if partner has a great hand like xx A109xxxx Kxx x we still need to find the diamond queen.
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#11 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2014-February-28, 05:53

I'm with MickyB in that our pre-empts are as wide ranging as most but absolutely NOT in 2nd chair.

That discussion makes it a "reasonable" punt but by no means clear cut especially at MP's.
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#12 User is offline   wanoff 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 04:07

There's no need to punt but you're obviously worth a look.
If 4 gets 4 you can try 4.
With no further encouragement I'd give up.
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#13 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 08:54

View PostAntrax, on 2014-February-28, 02:18, said:

Can't you just play something like Ogust/feature ask over 3-level preempts too?


You can of course, but they will all come with a prize. I am sure BBF theoreticians may come up with some fancy stuff. I personally do not create things each time my system or style fails miserably. I know there are hands that are not friendly with my system or style, i accept them the way they are and just move on to the next board. If the system or style fails frequently, then it needs to be reconsidered of course.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#14 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 09:45

I play 4 short ask and 4 ace ask, don't think they will solve the problem here.
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#15 User is offline   jmcilkley 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 11:31

In 1st or 2nd seat I like a preempt to be a good suit, 2 of the top 3 honours - for exactly this reason Partner has not passed and may have a big hand and if the preempt could be weak he will not know how to proceed.
If a partner I trusted opened 3h on this, missing K, Q and J, then I would wonder what was going on. Maybe he also has an ace. Axx in spades as well as A 7 times in hearts would make a sure slam so I would certainly go looking for it with 4nt and expect to hear 2 keycards. Surely h could not also have a K in a minor as with 10 points and 7 hearts he would open 1h. So the grand can;t be on.

View Postahydra, on 2014-February-27, 17:29, said:

KQ
KQJ
AJ10x
AJxx

Playing MPs, NV vs V, partner opens 3H in second seat. Third seat passes. I reasoned that:
- he wouldn't open 3H in that position with such poor hearts if he didn't have anything outside
- someone must have spades, so I can likely make a spade ruff
- after losing SA, other tricks come from 7 hearts, SK, spade ruff and AKA in minors

3S would be natural, 4C a cuebid. I opted to punt and went straight to 6H (asking for the keycard first, just in case...) Does that seem reasonable?

ahydra

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#16 User is online   awm 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 12:15

I'd try to cuebid. The possible hands seem to include:

1. ATxxxxx and out, game is the limit.
2. ATxxxxx and a side queen, slam is on a finesse at best (i.e. xx ATxxxxx xx Qx doesn't really offer any play)
3. ATxxxxx and a side king, slam is on a finesse at worst (i.e. xxx ATxxxxx Kx x is virtually cold).
4. ATxxxxx and the spade ace, slam is cold if spades are Axx and will have some play if spades are Ax.

Seems like you basically want slam if partner has a side ace or king, and cuebidding will normally figure this out for you.
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#17 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 13:37

Partner's hand was xxx ATxxxxx Qx x. Lead SA and unfortunately the DK was offside this time. :(

Trying 4C in the hope of 4D was probably safer - pity there's no cuebid available to check for clubs as well though. So...

1) should 3S be a cuebid / inviting cuebids, rather than NAT GF? After all, angling for 4M after a 3m opening is reasonable, but converting a major to a major doesn't gain much unless the other major has a better fit.

2) what is 3H-5H?

ahydra
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#18 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 20:03

View Postahydra, on 2014-March-01, 13:37, said:

Partner's hand was xxx ATxxxxx Qx x. Lead SA and unfortunately the DK was offside this time. :(

Trying 4C in the hope of 4D was probably safer - pity there's no cuebid available to check for clubs as well though. So...

1) should 3S be a cuebid / inviting cuebids, rather than NAT GF? After all, angling for 4M after a 3m opening is reasonable, but converting a major to a major doesn't gain much unless the other major has a better fit.

2) what is 3H-5H?

ahydra


No 3S should be natural. This is FAR more useful.
5H is bid slam if your Hearts are good.
Serves you right for not playing weak key cards or for being a super optimist.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#19 User is offline   Antrax 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 22:21

View Postthe hog, on 2014-March-01, 20:03, said:

Serves you right for not playing weak key cards or for being a super optimist the wrong opponent holding the K.
FYP
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#20 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-March-01, 23:41

View PostAntrax, on 2014-March-01, 22:21, said:

FYP


So you would rather bash a slam, 50% at best, than find out if pd held the H ace and a minor suit K? Ok!
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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