[LghtnngRod]

IMP

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Not easy to make 4H on Spade lead or Spade switch at trick 2, but it is there, although with a following wind with a 3-3 Club break. But do you agree that you should be there? I doubt that anyone could stop in 3H if they bid at all over 3D.

[Hanoi5]

Hindsight is always 20/20 but I'd blame North as I think it's easier for him/her to enter the bidding than for South.

[ggwhiz]

I want to vote for options 1 and 2

The winning defense to 4♥ is not that obvious given that the defense to 3♦ doesn't exist.

Not that it matters much to me but imps or mp's?

[LghtnngRod]

Hi and thanks.
I set up the poll so that you can vote for multiple options.
IMP . Stated in OP but not easy to spot.
I should have included a separate poll option to ask if you agree with North’s pass, independently of whether South should then protect. Never mind, it looks like it would not collect many votes.
To the doublers, I take it that you also double with xx of diamonds instead of Qx (hand otherwise the same)?

[ggwhiz]

LghtnngRod, on 2014-March-02, 09:12, said:

I take it that you also double with xx of diamonds instead of Qx (hand otherwise the same)?

Yes I do on the theory that a few things can go right (our contract, push them up, get a better lead against 3nt from a shorter but good holding in a major etc.) vs. one that can go wrong.

Mind you the one that can go wrong could be a large number.

[aguahombre]

I strongly disagree that North should have acted in direct seat.

South's pass which ended the auction gets the charge (Zero Imps charge, but big at MP); right or wrong in theory is not relevant, IMO, to ATB on a particular hand. If the final pass worked out, South gets the credit.

If North had perpetrated a takeout double in direct seat, then he would get the credit for his choice whether I like the choice or not.

We had another thread a while back about balancing 3H with a hand similar to South's. Lots of players would; I would hate it and probably do it, for a matchpoint result of -100 vs minus 110 or any Imps push. since North would raise to 4.

[HighLow21]

Hanoi5, on 2014-March-02, 08:02, said:

Hindsight is always 20/20 but I'd blame North as I think it's easier for him/her to enter the bidding than for South.

Completely disagreed.

When it's North's turn to bid, he has no idea how the other points in the deck are distributed.

When it's South's turn, he knows 2 things:
(1) He has a lot of tricks in hearts.
(2) North has values and almost certainly sufficient support to venture 3♥.

Doubling 3♦ on the North hand risks getting slaughtered while bidding on the South hand is much, much safer.

[HighLow21]

ggwhiz, on 2014-March-02, 10:22, said:

Mind you the one that can go wrong could be a large number.

That's precisely the point. It's not ONLY that several things can go right and only one wrong. It's that combined with the likelihood and severity of the punishment if they do go wrong vs. the benefits if they go right.

And in North's seat, I feel the risks far outweigh the benefits of acting. I simply hate taking -1100s.

[MrAce]

To me N had an auto DBL.

[cherdano]

HighLow21, on 2014-March-03, 02:56, said:

Completely disagreed.

When it's North's turn to bid, he has no idea how the other points in the deck are distributed.

When it's South's turn, he knows 2 things:
(1) He has a lot of tricks in hearts.
(2) North has values and almost certainly sufficient support to venture 3♥.

Doubling 3♦ on the North hand risks getting slaughtered while bidding on the South hand is much, much safer.

I agree with this - I don't think a 3424 12-count is a 3-level takeout double.

From South's point of view, the most likely result of overcalling 3♥ is going down in 4♥ rather than letting them make 3♦ - but the upside of making 4♥ is much bigger than the upside of beating 3♦.

[MrAce]

cherdano, on 2014-March-04, 08:20, said:

I agree with this - I don't think a 3424 12-count is a 3-level takeout double.

I have couple of things that i disagree

1- Totally trashing the full value of Qx just because they preempted this suit. In fact if you happen to end up in defense, it is probably guaranteed trick if they had only 9 diamonds.. It may even have some values when your side declare. Obviously it does not when seeing pd's hand. I have not seen any hand evaluation method which trashes the full value of an honor card, yet a lot of players do this all the time.

2- Not taking action in direct seat maybe costly. As it happens, as E, someone else could bid 3 NT and leave no chance for NS to bid anything, taking his 8 tricks or perhaps making his 3 NT. All it needs is 1 defensive mistake after a panic lead. Bailing -100 when -620 is very likely holding xxx ♦ and Ax ♥

[1eyedjack]

MrAce, on 2014-March-04, 08:56, said:

1- Totally trashing the full value of Qx just because they preempted this suit. In fact if you happen to end up in defense, it is probably guaranteed trick if they had only 9 diamonds.. It may even have some values when your side declare. Obviously it does not when seeing pd's hand. I have not seen any hand evaluation method which trashes the full value of an honor card, yet a lot of players do this all the time.

While it is true that, as you say, the D:Qx may have some offensive value, the tenor of your objection appears to be that it would likely be rather more valuable in defence. That analysis seems to argue for passing, as to double would increase your chances of ending on the declaring side. But your preference seems to be for doubling, which seems perhaps inconsistent with the above statement.

[ggwhiz]

MrAce, on 2014-March-04, 08:56, said:

I have couple of things that i disagree

I have a couple more but the fact that the diamond Queen will most often score on defense after a double is a big one, (potential game swing) and if you quietly surrender 6-7 imps on a double partscore swing it only takes 2 to cover all but the most unlikeliest of penalties.

A simulation would be interesting but give the pre-emptor something like an 8 count and I suspect that a very small minority of hands for partner that are even a fair bit below their average share would have the kind of shape that the opponents can double.

Besides, if you do that against me I'll go into beast mode and you can forget about any easy/free run auctions for the rest of the match.

[HighLow21]

ggwhiz, on 2014-March-04, 12:18, said:

I have a couple more but the fact that the diamond Queen will most often score on defense after a double is a big one, (potential game swing) and if you quietly surrender 6-7 imps on a double partscore swing it only takes 2 to cover all but the most unlikeliest of penalties.

A simulation would be interesting but give the pre-emptor something like an 8 count and I suspect that a very small minority of hands for partner that are even a fair bit below their average share would have the kind of shape that the opponents can double.

You forgot a very important piece in your analysis--the 6-ish IMPs swings that you lose the other way. I.e., they can't make 3♦ and we go down as well.

The Qx is a defensive asset primarily. A stronger argument for passing.

Finally don't forget, partner is still over there. He will have complete information if it is passed through to him, and he'll be better equipped to decide whether it is best to compete. As it is.

[ArtK78]

I would pass in direct seat with the North hand and balance with the South hand.

The North hand is on the low end of marginal when it comes to acting over a 3♦ opening in direct seat. I would consider a double to be highly aggressive.

Assuming that you do not act aggressively in direct seat over a preempt, then the South hand must balance. You could be missing a game by not balancing, or there could be a double part score swing (6 IMPs) if both 3♦ and 3♥ make. Even if North raises to game and you go down, it is possible that the board will be a push.

If South had only 5 hearts the balance is not as clear, but is probably still right.

[the hog]

cherdano, on 2014-March-04, 08:20, said:

I agree with this - I don't think a 3424 12-count is a 3-level takeout double.

From South's point of view, the most likely result of overcalling 3♥ is going down in 4♥ rather than letting them make 3♦ - but the upside of making 4♥ is much bigger than the upside of beating 3♦.

These posters have it right. The Nth hand is not worth a double. The Q♦ is likely trash and the shape is not great.