[lamford]

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Your methods are three weak twos and a strong NT. If you had doubled it would have gone P-P-XX to you. Is it just a guess? This hand really happened, in a 3-table small club game in Birmingham (West Midlands, not Alabama).

[Zelandakh]

I would think the most likely hand for Opener is 8 or 9 diamonds to the AKQ with aces and kings in the side suits so not a diamond. But from the other 3 there is not much to go on. Playing Journalist Leads I could try the ♠9 (showing the ♠10 and denying a higher honour).

[mfa1010]

♠ > ♣ >> ♥ >>> ♦

[billw55]

I'll remove the four picture cards, then fan the rest and offer declarer to pick one

Seriously, no idea, anything could be the only lead the beats it or the only lead the gives it away. I suppose I can try deception, maybe put out the ♠9 to conceal the ten.

edit: I like Zel's reason to not lead a diamond.

[Lord Molyb]

I'll wait for my partner to lead out of turn; failing that I'll lead ♠T

[lamford]

I led a club, on the basis that partner could not open a weak 2C, and this could therefore beat it more. Sadly, declarer had
A A A AKJxxxxxxx. Interestingly it did not matter what I led, as the other two results were 7NTxx= and 7NTx-5 on a non-club lead, outside my range, having not doubled. One of the oddest averages I have ever had.

[mfa1010]

Very cute. Pretty sure declarer would have had AKJxxxxxxx, A, A, A if it had been me.

My reasoning was:

I agree with Zel that ♦ is declarer's most likely suit. So that is out. When declarer redoubles then there is a chance he has missorted his red cards, making ♥ second worst . Between spades and clubs I thought that the instinct to shoot for a notrump contract is greater with a minor suit than a major suit, and that this might twist the odds a tiny little bid in favour of declarer having a long minor. But I like your inference that partner didn't open a weak 2M, didn't think of that.

[HighLow21]

Why on earth is diamonds righty's best suit?

My lead is a diamond, period. A lead from the queen is much more likely to be fatal than 4 to the jack.

edit: Even if Z's theory is correct this does not have to be fatal. Partner could have the singleton 10.

[Antrax]

HighLow21, on 2014-February-20, 13:24, said:

Why on earth is diamonds righty's best suit?

Because he's more likely to expect AKQxxxxx to run than AKJxxxx.

[kuhchung]

Antrax, on 2014-February-21, 00:36, said:

Because he's more likely to expect AKQxxxxx to run than AKJxxxx.

Advanced bridge!