[nate_m]

It is not close at all. If LHO has K fourth or longer we are basically 100% given we only need them to hold the diamond or club guard. If they have a short K we still get to try for Qx. Another way to see it is that playing for the drop only gains when RHO holds the spade K and Qx, which is 8% without factoring early play. It should be obvious that the spade finesse has more gaining cases. Even if we were 25% to make after trying diamonds (I would be shocked to see the actual odds much below 40% and the majority of that 40% are gaining cases) it is still very clear to play on diamonds without risking slow play penalties.

Considering using SOTM considerations to drop Qx? Now THAT will get you slow play penalties . That's also a really bad idea in this particular example because you need the lead...

[Fluffy]

So did the squeeze work?

[phil_20686]

gszes, on 2014-February-13, 13:19, said:

I would also start with winning the heart K and leading a club to the A. I am unsure though that
hoping the spade K works (in case the diamonds fail) is the best line. Even if the spade works
we need that 4th spade to come in and that would require the player that held the 4 spades to
also hold the club Q (if not we have only 3s 3h 3d 2c). If lho is holding the 4th spade we are
toast since they would pitch after us in any squeeze anyway so we are reduced to hoping rho has
4+ spades (along with the K) and the club Q. This means before we cash even 1 dia trick we need
decide between trying for the squeeze or intending to try and drop the club Q.

Assuming RHo has both missing black honors is a 25% shot and it also has to be that rho has 3+
clubs along with 4+ spades (since with 2 clubs the Q is dropping anyway even w/o the spade finesse.
When we take all of that into consideration I think it is awfully close between trying to play for
the squeeze or play for the drop of the club Q. If this was IMPS the heart lead would convince me
to strongly consider playing for the drop. At MP where the reasoning behind the lead could be nothing
more than someone trying to salvage some MP (with a hopeless defensive hand) in case the opps can
score 13 tricks off the top w/o a heart lead I would be much more inclined to go for the squeeze
and if it works I can practice restraint by NOT thanking lho for their very friendly heart lead.

If you can go through all this fast enough not to get penalized for slow play make sure you let
me know so I can avoid your table in the future:). ONE MORE THING to consider no matter if this is
IMPS or MP. Deciding to go for the drop is a highly dangerous route since you are going to have
to pitch the QJx of spades and lead to the A to try the drop. If you are wrong you will end up
limited to 3h 1s 3d 2c and go down 3 whereas choosing the squeeze LOP will never result in you
going down more than 2. This may seem like small stuff compared to making but if dia fail to
drop we do not expect to make much more than 1 in 6 times anyway so chucking an extra 3-5 IMPS
the 5 times we fail makes playing for the drop dramatically more expensive in the long run than
playing for the squeeze.

Taking all of this into consideration I am back to following Nate-m LOP and go for the squeeze.
UNLESS I needed a top at MP or a swing at IMPS SOTM then I would play for the drop.

You have forgotten that the diamond T is also a threat.

Also, the K of spades is most likely with the long spades, so when the spade K is onside, it is significantly more likely that east holds the long spades.

[Lord Molyb]

Fluffy, on 2014-February-14, 03:33, said:

So did the squeeze work?

Sort of.
I was dummy and east held ♠T9xx ♥6 ♦Jxxx ♣Qxxx, so the contract is technically unmakable.
Partner ran his three heart winners and east didn't want to discard his spades in case declarer had AKQx of spades, so he discarded 2 clubs and a spade. Unfortunately, partner still misplayed it for down two.

[Fluffy]

phil_20686, on 2014-February-14, 04:22, said:

You have forgotten that the diamond T is also a threat.

I was ging to say the same however it is only a threat against a 4540 shape on west, not so likely.

[HighLow21]

Lord Molyb, on 2014-February-12, 07:09, said:

6NT is not a hopeless contract, but there are only 9 top tricks- ♠A, ♥KQJ, ♦AKQ, ♣AK. There are, however, opportunities to get 3 extra tricks. How do you go about it?

Also, why do my pickup partners on BBO always leave whenever they get a minus score?

The squeeze on righty has already begun, if there is one. (Even if there isn't, there is still pressure, as he is already discarding my long suit. And when declaring I love pressuring my opponents.)

I play another heart to force another discard from righty. If it is a diamond, I try to run those, and if that fails, I hook a spade. If not a diamond, I take the spade hook--a priori, it is a 3 to 2 favorite. I like my chances a lot if the spade hook wins. (Back to dummy with the club, take the last heart and diamonds, watching the discards carefully, and by then I should know what to do.) If the spade hook fails, so be it, but I still have 11. (I realize I could lose a spade, a heart, and a diamond with this combo, but that would be one heck of an unfortunate parlay.)

Here's my opinion on why partners leave after a minus (especially if they take the minus as dummy when a plus was possible, and especially on a big momentous hand like a failed slam or allowing a doubled contract through): on BBO there are a ton of terrible players. A reasonable heuristic is to leave immediately if you get a bad result, especially if you haven't had a chance to evaluate that partner and see signs that he/she is actually a decent player. I do it all the time, because I hate taking 10 IMP losses for which I am blameless. And people have done it to me--I take a 10-IMP loss on a difficult, incorrect guess, and they run away. Sure, in this case, I'm actually a good player, but they don't know that. All they know is that they got a bad result with me and as a result, from their perspective, it's much more likely that I'm a fool than that I'm a good player who happened to lose 10 IMPs on the one hand they sat down for. If they only have seen this one hand, my odds of being a fool have increased from, say, 20% to 80%, and they leave based on that data. (Call it Bayesian analysis with a very small prediction sample.)

They are also far more likely to leave in that case if they themselves are bad players. This is because they are much less likely to differentiate between a "bad guess/hard luck -10 IMPs" and a "you're a terrible player -10 IMPs."

In this case, your partner played the hand and probably ran away because (1) he couldn't follow your bidding logic, (2) he was embarrassed, (3) he blamed you for putting him in a difficult contract in which he failed.

[HighLow21]

cherdano, on 2014-February-12, 17:43, said:

Why?

I think the main reason to lead ♥A is the thought that partner might have the ♥K.

No it's more likely that the player isn't very good and "is playing the Ace to see dummy." :-)

[johnu]

HighLow21, on 2014-February-20, 13:41, said:

I play another heart to force another discard from righty. If it is a diamond, I try to run those, and if that fails, I hook a spade. If not a diamond, I take the spade hook--a priori, it is a 3 to 2 favorite. I like my chances a lot if the spade hook wins. (Back to dummy with the club, take the last heart and diamonds, watching the discards carefully, and by then I should know what to do.) If the spade hook fails, so be it, but I still have 11. (I realize I could lose a spade, a heart, and a diamond with this combo, but that would be one heck of an unfortunate parlay.)

If they don't discard a diamond, you will go down when diamonds would have run and the spade finesse + squeeze doesn't work.

By cashing a third round of hearts immediately, you destroy the transportation needed to take 2 spade finesses and also unblock the ♣K. Since the ♣K hasn't been played, you could still have a spade-club squeeze against East but you would have to guess the distribution, and you haven't rectified the count done a Vienna coup for a diamond-spade squeeze so that squeeze isn't possible now. Read the nate_m's first post for the best percentage line.

[HighLow21]

johnu, on 2014-February-20, 14:32, said:

If they don't discard a diamond, you will go down when diamonds would have run and the spade finesse + squeeze doesn't work.

By cashing a third round of hearts immediately, you destroy the transportation needed to take 2 spade finesses and also unblock the ♣K. Since the ♣K hasn't been played, you could still have a spade-club squeeze against East but you would have to guess the distribution, and you haven't rectified the count done a Vienna coup for a diamond-spade squeeze so that squeeze isn't possible now. Read the nate_m's first post for the best percentage line.

Possibly, but perhaps I'm overly influenced by the fear of going down more than necessary. I have a bias towards pressuring the opponents early rather than playing for a short-suited drop (precisely Jxx with either opponent is what percentage? Maybe 20%? it's about as likely as Jxxxx in this scenario) and as I said, I love my chances if the spade finesse works.

I did read his line and I agree it is also a good one.

[johnu]

HighLow21, on 2014-February-20, 15:06, said:

Possibly, but perhaps I'm overly influenced by the fear of going down more than necessary. I have a bias towards pressuring the opponents early rather than playing for a short-suited drop (precisely Jxx with either opponent is what percentage? Maybe 20%? it's about as likely as Jxxxx in this scenario) and as I said, I love my chances if the spade finesse works.

I love my chances when diamonds run and I don't need a spade finesse plus squeeze I also love my chances when I play my cards in the right order to execute a squeeze and give myself the best chance of making a slam (which may not be bid at the other table(s))

HighLow21, on 2014-February-20, 15:06, said:

I did read his line and I agree it is also a good one.

One of the lines is a good one

[HighLow21]

johnu, on 2014-February-20, 16:58, said:

One of the lines is a good one

M'kay then. Nice to meet you too.