[Fluffy]

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I've read that Bocchi claims that he and another 3 world champions think a club lead is automatic. I find a club to be the last suit I'd lead with diamond first, is there something I am overlooking?

[Antrax]

Haha I get to post in the expert forum!

http://www.bridgebas...lead-from-bali/

[Fluffy]

Thanks althou I am more interested on non UI matters, just want to know what is the normal lead with this cards, because I seem to differ with world champions and want to understand why.

[dboxley]

It sounds like all of the opponents' club cards will be in dummy and he may have a singleton in his hand. If he has alternative plays for the contract, he will be very reluctant to take a finesse at trick one in a grand.

[mikeh]

I'm no world champion and never will be and maybe that's why I think that a club lead, altho the lead I think I'd make, isn't 'obvious'.

I gather the 3♠ call was natural so we are never leading spades.

As between the minors, I can't think of a situation in which leading a diamond ever creates a losing option for declarer at trick one (unless partner is ruffing).

Clubs, otoh, may, and it is a tiny 'may', give him a decision to make. Consider AKJ(x) in dummy and a stiff in hand, and the rest of the hand gives him a good, but not happening, chance for his contract with only 2 club winners...he will or at least may decline the 1st round hook....nobody likes to go down in 7 at trick one on a finesses.

I have to say that I find it hard to construct such a hand, since my spades are almost as bad as they could be....only xxxx(x) would be worse.

However, when the decision is between two choices and I can think of some reason for one and none for the other, the choice seems clear (tho not obvious)

I have no idea if Bocchi was thinking this way

[dboxley]

mikeh, on 2013-September-30, 10:52, said:

I'm no world champion and never will be and maybe that's why I think that a club lead, altho the lead I think I'd make, isn't 'obvious'.

I gather the 3♠ call was natural so we are never leading spades.

As between the minors, I can't think of a situation in which leading a diamond ever creates a losing option for declarer at trick one (unless partner is ruffing).

Clubs, otoh, may, and it is a tiny 'may', give him a decision to make. Consider AKJ(x) in dummy and a stiff in hand, and the rest of the hand gives him a good, but not happening, chance for his contract with only 2 club winners...he will or at least may decline the 1st round hook....nobody likes to go down in 7 at trick one on a finesses.

I have to say that I find it hard to construct such a hand, since my spades are almost as bad as they could be....only xxxx(x) would be worse.

However, when the decision is between two choices and I can think of some reason for one and none for the other, the choice seems clear (tho not obvious)

I have no idea if Bocchi was thinking this way

I think that's exactly the same thing I said, but longer.

[mikeh]

As you might guess from the length of my post, I was typing it (and making some changes to it) when you posted yours: I wasn't ripping you off

[ggwhiz]

It might be as simple as pard only needs the club jack to make it safe with the bonus of declarer being short and not willing to play the jack at trick 1 from the dummy (I would lead something like the 8).

Leading a diamond could blow the suit up if pard has Qx or Jx with 4 of them including the 9 in dummy.

Disclaimer: Only a chumps best guess.

[Fluffy]

so declarer cannot have club void nor a club honor with 2 or 3?

[mikeh]

Fluffy, on 2013-September-30, 15:31, said:

so declarer cannot have club void nor a club honor with 2 or 3?

Many pairs can show a void in response to keycard and if LHO has a hole in clubs, he has good diamonds and RHO will pitch on that suit...after all, he is known to be short in the minors, having bid both majors

[Fluffy]

Bocchi explained this:

If west had diamonds they would most likely be in 7NT as they are probably solid. So if partner ruffs something it is more likely to be clubs than anything else. Resuming, Madala read that dummy had a long suit and he played for it to be clubs.

[jdeegan]

Any idea what the opponents' bidding showed?

[Fluffy]

dummy showed heart supoprt, declarer showed 5+ hearts 4 spades, 2 keycards including trump queen (I got the answer to blackwood wrong on my diagram).

[jdeegan]

Fluffy, on 2013-October-02, 12:03, said:

dummy showed heart support, declarer showed 5+ hearts 4 spades, 2 keycards including trump queen (I got the answer to blackwood wrong on my diagram).

I guess that rules out a spade lead. It is between a diamond and a club. Some earlier posters suggest that a club is better because declarer may have a stiff club and will almost always eschew a first round finesse if he/she has any alternatives (with no alternatives, you are screwed anyway). I agree. Maybe a mildly deceptive club spot is the ticket here since declarer may have two clubs and need to develop a thirteenth trick. You want to try to convince him/her that the ♣Q is offside and that the suit is splitting 4-3.

The situation looks bad for us unless partner has a natural trump trick. The ♣Q is almost surely onside, any spade hook is on and any minor suit squeeze is probably going to work as well. Maybe a club opening lead will take out a crucial entry assuming declarer has a stiff. Maybe it will convince him/her to go for a 'normal' club division or possibly a diamond division. Anything but the successful spade hook. This argues against the passive diamond lead.

It seems to me that a club and a diamond lead are equal in terms of partner having a void. A void in either minor is rare. A void with no Lightner double is even rarer. On a percentage basis the club lead makes more sense, at least to me.

What a surprise! A top level, world class player and three of his counterparts appear to be correct.