[gnasher]

---

♦7 - ♦2 - ♦A - ♦8
♦3 - ♥5 - ♦6 - ♦5

3rd/5th if it matters.

Edit: Sorry, the bidding is inverted. South opened 1♥ and North raised tp 3♥.

[rhm]

Lack of entries seem to preclude a dummy reversal.

Cash one round of trumps with the ♥K.
If West shows out, hope East has at least three clubs, by ruffing the third club low and if East has more than 3 clubs by ruffing the next club with the ace, coming back to hand with trump finesses.

However if both follow there are now 2 lines:

Simple line: Cash the ♥Q. If both follow you are home. If not you need clubs 3-3

Line 2:

T4,5: ♣A,K
T6: club ruff.

If West shows out, assuming he does not ruff in, ruff low, return to hand with the spade ace and ruff another club, cash the trump ace and return to hand with a diamond ruff.

If West follows, still ruff low.
If East shows out, return to hand in spades, ♣ ruff low, heart ace, diamond ruff etc.

This line looses if trumps are 2-2 and clubs worse than 4-2
From the first 2 tricks it looks like diamonds are 4-4 West having ♦KJ76 and East ♦AQ43
So it is unlikely that clubs will be worse than 4-2 and trumps 2-2.
However, it also looses when West has 2 trumps and 4 clubs.
It wins when West has 3 trumps and either 2 clubs or 4 clubs

Line 2 seems to have a slight edge.

Rainer Herrmannd

[c_corgi]

rhm, on 2013-September-29, 08:35, said:

...
Simple line: Cash the ♥Q. If both follow you are home. If not you need clubs 3-3
...

Cashing the Ace instead also makes when a defender has 3 trumps and 4 clubs.

[aguahombre]

Will assume North is South, no big deal. Guessing this was a Fantunes auction from the 3H response with that collection. RHM seems to cover the play.

[gszes]

agree with rhm that dia appear to be split 44 but i do not wish to
sacrifice my automatic make if trumps split 22 so i go a slightly
different route.
trick 3 heart K (if trumps break 40 tell your partner to quit wishing you good luck)
trick 4 heart to A (if trumps break 22 hand is over but if they break 31 we still have
a chance if clubs break 33 or if the hand with the 3 trumps has 4 clubs and 2344
shape (which fits in nicely with our 44 dia split conclusion), All told this lop will
make 41.4 (22 trumps) + 37.3 (33 clubs) + (14% of 59 when trumps break 31
and long trumps have 4 clubs this is 8.3%) = 86% to 87% - 4.5% chance rho has
4 trumps grand total 83%. This is probably an underestimate since the evidence
for a 44 dia split seems pretty strong the odds of the hand with the long trumps
having 2344 distribution seem much higher than normal.

[rhm]

c_corgi, on 2013-September-29, 09:43, said:

Cashing the Ace instead also makes when a defender has 3 trumps and 4 clubs.

Correct
Start with a heart to the ace in case East has all trumps.
If he does try to ruff a club. You can make when East has 3 or 4 clubs.
If both follow to the first round of trumps draw another round and start ruffing clubs.
This looks best now, even though it looses if West holds three trumps and two clubs.
If West has all the trumps or East has two clubs and three or four trumps you can not make anyway.
Success is around 80%

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

gszes, on 2013-September-29, 10:18, said:

agree with rhm that dia appear to be split 44 but i do not wish to
sacrifice my automatic make if trumps split 22 so i go a slightly
different route.
trick 3 heart K (if trumps break 40 tell your partner to quit wishing you good luck)
trick 4 heart to A (if trumps break 22 hand is over but if they break 31 we still have
a chance if clubs break 33 or if the hand with the 3 trumps has 4 clubs and 2344
shape (which fits in nicely with our 44 dia split conclusion), All told this lop will
make 41.4 (22 trumps) + 37.3 (33 clubs) + (14% of 59 when trumps break 31
and long trumps have 4 clubs this is 8.3%) = 86% to 87% - 4.5% chance rho has
4 trumps grand total 83%. This is probably an underestimate since the evidence
for a 44 dia split seems pretty strong the odds of the hand with the long trumps
having 2344 distribution seem much higher than normal.

You can not add 37.3 to 41.4 since you count the case where clubs are 3-3 and trumps 2-2 twice.

Rainer Herrmann

[Cascade]

I suspect north didnt open 1♥

[Lord Molyb]

Cascade, on 2013-September-29, 17:45, said:

I suspect north didnt open 1♥

probably didn't use blackwood either

[nige1]

gnasher, on 2013-September-29, 03:26, said:

♦7 - ♦2 - ♦A - ♦8
♦3 - ♥5 - ♦6 - ♦5

3rd/5th if it matters.

---

Agree with Lord Molyb: North took some good views in the auction
and go with rhm et al on the play:
Ruff 2nd ♦. ♥A (in case LHO is void). ♥K
If ♥ are 2-2, then claim 3♠, 7♥ and 2♣. Otherwise...
♣AK. Ruff a ♣.
If ♣ are 3-3, then claim 2♠, 6♥ and 4♣. Otherwise...
♠A, ruff a ♣, ♠K, hoping that player with 3/4♥ has 4♣ and 2♠

[gnasher]

I think we can get to the right line without doing any arithmetic.

If we compare these two lines:
(1) ♥K, ♥A, play clubs
(2) ♥K, play clubs

If neither the 9 nor the jack appears on the first round of trumps:
(1) gains over (2) when clubs are 4=2 and hearts are Jx-9x or 9x--Jx.
(2) gains over (1) when clubs are 2=4 and hearts are J9x-x.

The club breaks cancel, so we are just comparing heart breaks. (1) works nearly twice as often as (2), so (1) is better. (It's only nearly twice as often because of the vacant-spaces effect.)

If RHO plays the 9 on the first round of trumps:
(1) gains over (2) when clubs are 4=2 and hearts are xx-J9 (and RHO didn't falsecard with the jack).
(2) gains over (1) when clubs are 2=4 and hearts are Jxx-9.

Now the heart breaks are numerically equal, so the vacant-spaces consideration becomes significant, and (2) is better than (1).

Regarding catering for four hearts in East:
- If he has only three clubs we can safely start with ♥K
- If he is 2434 or 3424 we can ruff two clubs and then use dummy's spade winner to trump-coup him.
Hence the suggestion of starting with ♥A is catering only for 1444, when RHO will be 7042. That seems unlikely, so I think it's better to start with ♥K, allowing us to play with the odds when ♥9 appears from East.

[gnasher]

This was played in slam twice. According to the Vugraph records, Nunes played ♥K then clubs; Nevena Senior played ♥KQ (which I think can never gain over ♥KA).

[gszes]

rhm, on 2013-September-29, 16:15, said:

You can not add 37.3 to 41.4 since you count the case where clubs are 3-3 and trumps 2-2 twice.

Rainer Herrmann

sigh correct should have been (37.3 X remaining 58.6 when trumps do not break 22) or 22 (odd) %
making the total of around 68% instead of 83. It always amazes me to see myself process one
arithmetic problem properly and improperly in the same problem sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

[nige1]

gnasher, on 2013-September-30, 04:07, said:

Hence the suggestion of starting with ♥A is catering only for 1444, when RHO will be 7042. That seems unlikely, so I think it's better to start with ♥K, allowing us to play with the odds when ♥9 appears from East.

Gnasher may be right again --- I thought I'd found another situation where ♥A first is necessary - when RHO is 2425. But after starting with ♥K, RHO still falls victim to Gnasher's trump coup:
♦ ruff, ♥K, ♣AK, ♣ ruff, ♠AK, ♣ ruff, finishing with a pretty cross-(over)ruff.
(which still works if ♠Q is replaced with a small spade).

[Fluffy]

nige1, on 2013-September-30, 21:48, said:

Gnasher may be right again --- I thought I'd found another situation where ♥A first is necessary - when RHO is 2425. But after starting with ♥K, RHO still falls victim to Gnasher's trump coup:
♦ ruff, ♥K, ♣AK, ♣ ruff, ♠AK, ♣ ruff, finishing with a cross-(over)ruff.

Nice try but it is impossible that diamonds are 6-2 (west would had underled KQJ)