[ahydra]

Here's a problem I seem to come up against quite often. You're playing MPs (this is less of a problem at IMPs, but still exists) and suspect the opponents have overbid, but can't justify a double, so you pass and hope partner will recognise the same thing and double, only they don't, leaving you wish you'd not wimped out in the first place.

Typical example from tonight's game (MPs, NS vul, dealer East, some spots approximate)

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Whose job is it to double 4H here? Or should someone bid 4S? (4H went two off while 4S was making at some tables. Dummy had Axx AJxx 10xx xxx, leaving declarer with x K10xxx Qx AJxxx, so you make 4S if you drop the DQ)

ahydra

ps. While we're at it, can someone calculate the odds of me getting no hand bigger than 14 HCPs for 48 hands in a row?! :/

[akwoo]

You need to discuss the following general principle with partner:

At MPs, anytime you have pushed the opponents into a game they wouldn't bid otherwise, you must double (or bid on).

If your opponents are in a game most of the field is not in, then one of two things will happen:

A: They make. Since most of the field is not in game, they get a near top. If you double, they get a top instead of a near top.

B: They go down. Undoubled, this might be roughly an average score, since you might be making your contract. Doubled, they get a near bottom.

So, at MPs, it is odds on to double in this situation. You only lose about 15-20% of a board if you are wrong, and stand to gain 40-60% of a board if you are right.

There is an important corollary to this, which is that you should not push opponents into game if you're not willing to either double or bid on.

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In this case, I think South should double. If North got this undoubled, he or she might very well pull to 4S instead of doubling.

[mikeh]

I suggest you give a closer look at the hand. I am not 100% sure I would play this way, but if I reached 4♥ from the East side and got, say, a high spade lead, I would probably win and realize that I have to play on clubs.

The failure to lead a top diamond would persuade me that N has at least one top diamond, along with 5 spades headed by at most the J.

I would therefore place S with a club honour, and I cannot bring the suit home unless it is stiff, or S has KQ tight.

So at trick 2 I lead a club to the A.

Having now established that S has short clubs, I'd be inclined to play him for the heart length. So heart K, low to the J, and pull the last trump. A club off dummy leaves N with no winning option. I have the entries to ruff either spades or (eventually) diamond to my hand, ruff a club in dummy and return to my hand to claim 10 tricks.

The fact that (apparently) nobody in your club made more than 8 tricks is not a reason to start doubling makeable contracts.

Anyway, leaving aside the question of the play of the hand, I wouldn't double as N or S.

N's 3♠ call is commonly played, by good players, as competitive, with no game interest (double would be a game try), so S has no strong reason to think that the hand belongs to NS. I'd expect a 3♠ bid on as little as Axxxx x Qxxx xxx, and now the odds are surely against beating 4♥. Even as it was, that club 10, which played little role in the auction, was critical to the result, at least for those who went down.

[ahydra]

Whoops, this was actually board 1, not board 2 - so the vul should be "none vul" and we need to insert another pass by North at the beginning of the auction.

Frequencies were

1x 4H E -2 (us)
3x 4S NS =
2x 3S N +1
1x 4S N -1
1x 4S N -2

So as it happens, nobody else was allowed to play 4H.

ahydra

[gszes]

14 HCP sigh and you GRIPE such riches are beyond my meager imagination-- I took up
answering forum questions so I could PRETEND I had 14 HCP or more:))))))))))))))))))))

I fail to see why north did not bid 4s over 3h. they have a perfectly placed singleton
(hearts) a 9 card trump fit and 7 hcp in the minors. Surely if they had 4 spades and
p opened 1s they would jump to 4s over a 2h overcall right? This is the same situation
but better since the heart singleton looks even more golden (unfortunately is it not)
than in the other example. Blame south and neither of these hands should be
considering an x of 4h sheeshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[suleiman22]

I definitely think that South, knowing he/she has a nine-card spade fit with partner, should bid 4♠ here. 4♥ gives a minimal gain if it is not made and as South you are not even sure if they will or not. 4♠ seems like it is a fine contract that even playing just from south's position with no knowledge of partner's hand I would bid 4♠.
Suleiman

[ahydra]

suleiman22, on 2013-September-26, 05:35, said:

I definitely think that South, knowing he/she has a nine-card spade fit with partner, should bid 4♠ here. 4♥ gives a minimal gain if it is not made and as South you are not even sure if they will or not. 4♠ seems like it is a fine contract that even playing just from south's position with no knowledge of partner's hand I would bid 4♠.
Suleiman

How does South know of the 9-card fit?

ahydra