[Cyberyeti]

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NS vul, teams

I played 5♣N on an auction of 1♣-(1♥)-1♠-(3♣)-5♣ and made 6 when they led a heart and I ruffed 3 hearts on the table.

My question is how do you handle the spade suit if they lead ace and another trump against 6♣ (E has Ax) ?

[CamHenry]

I'm no expert, but on that start doesn't A then run the J look good? I think I come to 6♣, ♥A, ♠AKT, and a ♥ ruff with dummy's last trump. If the ♠ behave (Q onside, no worse than 4-2, or singleton Q) then I make 12.

[uhhlv]

You need 4 spade tricks

Spade ace, spade to the king and a ruff wins against
- spade 3-3 (35%)
- queen doubl (16,3%)
- queen single (2,3%)
= 53,6%
So it is better than any kind of Finesse.

But the propabilities may change a little bit because of the bidding.

[CamHenry]

uhhlv, on 2013-June-10, 06:54, said:

You need 4 spade tricks

Why? You have six clubs after losing the A. You have the ♥A, you have a ♥ ruff. That's 8 tricks; three more from ♠ makes your 11.

It gets interesting at MPs, though...

[EricK]

CamHenry, on 2013-June-10, 06:57, said:

Why? You have six clubs after losing the A. You have the ♥A, you have a ♥ ruff. That's 8 tricks; three more from ♠ makes your 11.

It gets interesting at MPs, though...

Although the contract at the table was 5♣, the OP is asking how best to try to make 6♣.

[CamHenry]

EricK, on 2013-June-10, 07:14, said:

Although the contract at the table was 5♣, the OP is asking how best to try to make 6♣.

Oops, missed that detail! In which case I think spade A,K,ruff is best unless you play for a defensive error.

[c_corgi]

What did 3C mean? If it was a 3 card limit raise in hearts, for instance, it looks right to play West for Qxxx in spades.

[Cyberyeti]

c_corgi, on 2013-June-10, 08:21, said:

What did 3C mean? If it was a 3 card limit raise in hearts, for instance, it looks right to play West for Qxxx in spades.

Undiscussed, I asked, but guessed it was splinter raise.

[bigbenvic]

Cyberyeti, on 2013-June-10, 08:59, said:

Undiscussed, I asked, but guessed it was splinter raise.

I'm winning the 10 and playing small to the Jack of spades based on vacant spaces.

East is likely to hold 5♥ as west has raised, and he has 2 ♣ with 6 cards left to place the queen in. West is known to hold 1♣ and likely has 3♥ so 9 unknowns. On that basis it's 9-6 or 60% in favour of the Queen being in Wests hand.

The points aren't obviously all located by the bidding, after A♣ there are 14 unknown and there is no clear pointer that East requires more than half (7) of them to overcall so the queen could easily be in either hand. if East should have more than 2/3rds of the points left ie 9+ of 14 then that mitigates some of the vacant spaces data.

[rhm]

I doubt that the ♠Q affected opponents bidding.

Spades must break no worse than 4=2. If East is 1=5=5=2 there is no winning line.
West has splintered with 3 card support, so is not likely to hold more than 6 diamonds.
So East is likely to be either 3=5=3=2 or 2=5=4=2 giving West either 3=3=6=1 or 4=3=5=1
If you consider both distributions possible spades will break 3-3 47% of the time and 4=2 53% of the time.

Playing to drop the spade queen is now 65% and finessing West for the queen 59%

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

rhm, on 2013-June-11, 02:19, said:

I doubt that the ♠Q affected opponents bidding.

Spades must break no worse than 4=2. If East is 1=5=5=2 there is no winning line.
West has splintered with 3 card support, so is not likely to hold more than 6 diamonds.
So East is likely to be either 3=5=3=2 or 2=5=4=2 giving West either 3=3=6=1 or 4=3=5=1
If you consider both distributions possible spades will break 3-3 47% of the time and 4=2 53% of the time.

Playing to drop the spade queen is now 65% and finessing West for the queen 59%

Playing for the drop also works when East has a singleton queen. That adds an extra 2.5%.

In case anyone's wondering why Rainer's figures are so high, I think they're percentages of the hands where game is makeable, rather than percentages of all the possible hands. I think the actual chances of making are:
Drop: 55%
Finesse: 47%

I was quite surprised that the drop is so much better than the finesse. At the table I'd have finessed, thinking that the vacant spaces made it clearly better.

[c_corgi]

rhm, on 2013-June-11, 02:19, said:

...
West has splintered with 3 card support, so is not likely to hold more than 6 diamonds.
So East is likely to be either 3=5=3=2 or 2=5=4=2 giving West either 3=3=6=1 or 4=3=5=1
...

I would think that West is unlikely to have 6 diamonds if most of his honour strength is in diamonds, so the 3361 shape will include the QS a disproportionate amount of the time. Perhaps this is tenuous reasoning given the lack of agreements though.

[Cyberyeti]

At the table, I think we're going to have some unlucky experts, the actual other hands:

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