Posted 2013-May-25, 19:54
There are some clues here that have not been discussed.
We have 19 HCP and a pre-empting OPP lacking AKQJ. Does he psyche -- is it possible he has a pre-empt in spades given that so many are missing and no one has come in to show them? LHO should have at least 8 HCPs here unless it is a psyche with KQJxxxxxx(x) in spades. That leaves 13HCP for P and RHO. In the absence of any other information split them evenly, 7 and 6.
We have RHO who coyly passed over this pre-empt, when she might have advanced especially with a Yarborough. She cannot possibly know that we are so hopelessly stuck. She also likely has 5 or 6 spades but did nothing -- which would be customary even looking at strength facing a pre-empt where she has no fit. We have a partner who passed despite shortness in the pre-empted suit and so is much less likely to have as many as 13HCP.
We have a first seat opener whose pre-empt should be sound, but obviously isn't. This being MPs it is fairly safe to assume that we are already in a top or bottom situation, so we should do our best to get a top out of it -- and not worry about the improbable but possible down 5 doubled. We are unlikely to get a top without the game bonus or an equivalent penalty defensively. If 3hs is miraculously the right place, then every other pair in the room will be in a comfortable partial making 3 hearts.
I think the chances of finding partner with any considerable strength is fairly low. Hopefully he will assume that we already put him on 7 HCPs when trying to figure out how to deal with this pre-empt (he should). He may have a K more, but there is no reason to put every missing point in his hand and even if they are there, we are not in too bad shape with a fit somewhere (note that as little as Th stiff may be enough of a fit to manage this hand in either Hs or Cs). I do expect partner to have at least 5 spades and possibly 6 or 7, but it is even more likely that one or both opponents have considerable spade stacks.
I expect partner will start thinking (always but especially) when I do something like double and he is looking at D shortness while responder did nothing to advance the auction.
We would like P to be declarer if at all possible to avoid the deadly opening suit preference ruff, return, ruff, etc.
I am going to start with a x, expecting partner to call 3s (unimpeded) upwards of 75% of the time. I am cue bidding 4d over 3H or 4c (accepting and slam seeking). I am reading 3NT as asking me to pick a suit and I will be happy to choose 4h's, not expecting the auction to end there -- seriously, someone has to have the spades, don't they? If Partner jumps in h's or clubs, I put him in 6. If partner cue bids 4ds I am signing off in 4h (duplication in the worst way).
So that leaves the spade bids to deal with. I am converting 3s to 4h and then to 5c if he persists. I am converting 4s to 5c, although this could be bad (AKQxxxx, x, xx, xxx). Doubled or not, btw on these auctions.
On the off chance that our table's auction is standard, I expect to have company in whatever the final contract is.