Cyberyeti, on 2013-April-02, 06:25, said:
Partner could have Ax, Axxxx, KQxx, xx where the small slam is laydown and the grand is good, he could equally have x, KJxxx, Jxxx, AKQ where even 4 is no play without a club lead or the spade honours crashing.
How likely is it that opponents with 11 clubs between them and all club honors would keep quiet.
3
♣ scares me because they may have a very cheap save in clubs.
Cyberyeti, on 2013-April-02, 04:52, said:
Edit:- Basic system is Acol weak no trump, but I suspect that doesn't matter much.
It certainly does.
With 2-5-4-2 and a club honor I would not expect partner to bid 2
♦ if in 1NT rebidding range. So if 2-5-4-2 partner is minimum.
But otherwise 2
♦ is more likely to show an unbalanced hand. Guess where your partner is likely to be short.
Of course if partner has a singleton spade (a big if) there is still a 50% chance that his spade singleton is an honor, but slam may still not be good.
The choice is between 4
♠ and 5
♠.
My choice is 4
♠.
I would not expect partner to pass with good spade support (say
♠AK), because I did not bid 4
♠ (no kickback for me) immediately and 1
♠ followed by 4
♠ must show a hand too strong for an immediate 4
♠ bid, in particular when partner rebid made it likely being short in spades.
Rainer Herrmann