[daveharty]

---

Matchpoints.

[billw55]

1NT, which also keeps the majors in play and is less of a distortion than double. The spots make up the values.

[gszes]

1n very reasonable here passing if singleton is a major

[PhilKing]

Pass. If lefty bids 1NT and that comes back to me, double, showing this approximate pattern and point count.

This old chestnut comes up in the Bridge World every now and again, usually over 1♣, which is slightly different, since we anticipate passing and doubling when they find their fit. The diamond variant, where we anticipate doubling 1NT (which suggests clubs) appeared in February 1990, for instance. Double is the winner when we have weaker diamonds but the same shape (October 2001, for instance).

[the_clown]

What phil said.
By the way, I would rather double than bid 1N, at least when I X we are going to find our major suit fit.

[Free]

Easy pass imo, planning to Dbl later.

[mr1303]

Pass first, then double 2C for takeout

[MrAce]

To me spots matter a lot, put me down for 1nt

[lalldonn]

I hate anything but pass.

[the hog]

To me tricks matter a lot. Put me down for pass. This is clear in my opinion. Double is better than the very poor bid of 1NT.

[rhm]

the hog, on 2013-March-30, 19:15, said:

To me tricks matter a lot. Put me down for pass. This is clear in my opinion. Double is better than the very poor bid of 1NT.

I am a passer. but it is close between pass and 1NT. Sure, 1NT could work out poorly but so can pass and chances are good that 1NT will work out quite well.

Rainer Herrmann

[han]

I want to start doubling on hands like this.

[daveharty]

I totally understand where the passers are coming from, and if you get one of your hoped-for auctions,

1D -- 1NT; pass
or
1D -- 1NT; 2C

then it has undoubtedly worked out for the best. But I'm really curious how often that will actually pan out. I did a quick, crude simulation at playbridge.com, dealing out 64 hands with East holding the above cards and North holding 12-21 HCP, 4+ diamonds, and no 5cM. I threw out 16 of the hands because either West would have opened the bidding (6 cases) or North would have opened 1NT (10 cases). I looked at how the auction might have gone on the remaining 48 deals, assuming East passes over 1D. Obviously this is too small a sample to be very significant, and I'm sure the parameters could be tightened a bit, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless:

East's "hoped-for" auctions would occur, in my judgment, in only 9/48 cases (19%).

In 21/48 cases (44%), the auction would proceed 1D-1M; 1NT back to East. In another 2 cases, the auction would go 1D-1H; 1S back to East, and in another case, the auction would go 1D-1S; 2C to East. So in a full 50% of the cases, South would respond 1M.

In 14/48 cases (29%), I judged that 1D would be passed around to partner. I found these the most difficult to judge, but based on my personal criteria for taking balancing action in this situation, I judged that partner would pass out 1D in 6 cases (13%), and balance in 8 cases (17%). Usually this balancing action would be a double, although in a couple of 10-11 point cases it might be 1NT. Twice I judged that partner would balance with 1M.

I didn't look at whether passing or some other action would be more "successful." All I was interested in was how often the auction would proceed in such a way as to allow East to make a delayed double to accurately describe his hand. Taking everything into account, maybe passing is the percentage action, but it does seem like the auction will continue awkwardly for East a high percentage of the time given an initial pass.