[Fluffy]

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♦2 lead (3rd/5th) to the ace
♣Q is returned

at 1€/IMP this hand was not funny for me, how do you play now?

[eagles123]

win with K♣ in south
low ♥ to the ace
ace♣ throw ♦
then play ♠


hope to lose A♠ K♥ and the original ♦ but I know it's never that easy

[FrancesHinden]

We might like to believe that diamonds are 5-1, but RHO might well switch from Axx of diamonds in case you are, say, 7222 and are about to discard a club on a diamond.

Line 1: CK, HA, CA, spade. This goes off when someone has Kxx in hearts or Kxxx of hearts plus the SA and their partner doesn't have a singleton spade.
Line 2: CK, spade. This line is on the heart finesse, although it goes off when the lead was a singleton and they get a trump promotion. This is a bit randomly implausible.

So line 2 gains with Kxx of hearts onside (6 holdings) and loses to Kx (4 holdings) offside. It also gains with Kxxx onside plus the SA.

It's too late at night to think hard about alternative layouts and inferences from the lead, so I'll go with line 2 even though the 4-1 spade holdings level things up a bit. Line 2 also gains when RHO has singleton DA and the SA.

[Codo]

I will finesse hearts at once. If the finesse lose, I am obviously down without a wonder- like 5-1 diamonds.
If the finesse wins, I can discard a diamond before I draw trumps..

[gszes]

i cant easily bite on the concept that lho has underled the dia K any less than
they might have underled the heart K. It seems to me rho (holding AKx in dia)
is desparately trying to forge an entry into lho hand so lho can lead a heart
and (at the same time) attacking an entry to the diamonds. Rho may or may
not have the spade A but the defense would seem to make more sense with
the spade A since entries to lho hand would appear to be extremely limited
that way.

trick 2 win club K (a nasty shock to rho plans) and immediately attack trumps.

I can ruff the club A as an immediate entry back to hand to pull trumps and then
set up diamonds with the heart A as an entry depending on how the defense
proceeds.

there are 3 key honors here SA

this lop goes down when
lho holds DK and rho holds SA and HK
lho hold DK SA and rho holds HK

and the defense is perfect (what else do you expect from a bbo forum reader)

makes

when lho holds the spade A and rho holds the heart K and dia K
when rho hold all 3 key cards

so it would seem that this lop wins a bit less than 50% of the time

but it also makes


any time the heart K is with LHO for an additional 50%

aside from some small % possibilites of a trump promotion this lop appears to be
close to 75%.

[rhm]

FrancesHinden, on 2013-March-27, 17:14, said:

Line 2: CK, spade. This line is on the heart finesse, although it goes off when the lead was a singleton and they get a trump promotion. This is a bit randomly implausible.

So line 2 gains with Kxx of hearts onside (6 holdings) and loses to Kx (4 holdings) offside. It also gains with Kxxx onside plus the SA.

It's too late at night to think hard about alternative layouts and inferences from the lead, so I'll go with line 2 even though the 4-1 spade holdings level things up a bit. Line 2 also gains when RHO has singleton DA and the SA.

Does this line not also gain most of the time when RHO has the trump ace irrespective of where the ♥K is?
If the ♦2 was 3rd/5th and West can return a diamond you get 2 discards assuming the ♦2 was not singleton.

Rainer Herrmann

[cherdano]

rhm, on 2013-March-29, 14:00, said:

Does this line not also gain most of the time when RHO has the trump ace irrespective of where the ♥K is?
If the ♦2 was 3rd/5th and West can return a diamond you get 2 discards assuming the ♦2 was not singleton.

Rainer Herrmann

Aren't we always making when diamonds are 3-3? If LHO wins ♠A, he is in a strange Morton's fork: he can cash ♦K and set up pitches for our hearts, or he can play a heart through, in which case we go up, pitch a diamond on the ♣A, ruff a diamond and pull trump.
Seems to me Frances' line 2 only goes down with diamonds 5-1, LHO with ♠A and ♦K, and RHO with ♥K.

[karlson]

I agree with playing a trump, but it's not as simple as rhm and cherdano make it sound -- if either hand wins the ♠A and comes to lefty's ♦K for a heart through, we have to hook since there's no late entry to the diamonds.

They may well not find this defense (e.g. will lefty know who has the last diamond? probably he should, but...).

[cherdano]

karlson, on 2013-March-30, 03:44, said:

I agree with playing a trump, but it's not as simple as rhm and cherdano make it sound -- if either hand wins the ♠A and comes to lefty's ♦K for a heart through, we have to hook since there's no late entry to the diamonds.

They may well not find this defense (e.g. will lefty know who has the last diamond? probably he should, but...).

Rainer's point was that if RHO wins ♠A and plays a diamond to LHO's king, and if we trust the lead, then diamonds are 3-3, so we can go up ♥A on the heart return, pitch two hearts on ♣A and ♦Q right away, go back to hand with a heart ruff, and finish pulling trump.

[karlson]

cherdano, on 2013-March-30, 05:54, said:

Rainer's point was that if RHO wins ♠A and plays a diamond to LHO's king, and if we trust the lead, then diamonds are 3-3, so we can go up ♥A on the heart return, pitch two hearts on ♣A and ♦Q right away, go back to hand with a heart ruff, and finish pulling trump.

You're right, my bad.

[Fluffy]

RHO had missdefended, he had

♠xxx
♥x
♦AK9xx
♣QJxx