[Stephen Tu]

---

Is West nuts? Should the 3♥ perhaps show better hand than 5H/12-19 given passed partner and 3 level, so make it less tempting for West to x?

[chasetb]

My problem with it is that the K♠ is garbage, and I wish that we had a second honor, or at least 98x. If GIB can't discount honor cards in partner's suit on Defense, then I agree in bumping the required HCP up to at least 15 (though with 5+ Hearts and 2+ in 8421 points, you can tone it down to 13+ provided 1- 8421 points in Spades).

[Stephen Tu]

chasetb, on 2013-March-10, 23:42, said:

My problem with it is that the K♠ is garbage, and I wish that we had a second honor, or at least 98x. If GIB can't discount honor cards in partner's suit on Defense, then I agree in bumping the required HCP up to at least 15 (though with 5+ Hearts and 2+ in 8421 points, you can tone it down to 13+ provided 1- 8421 points in Spades).

It really shouldn't be doubling on HCP; in theory it should be doubling on simulation, expected defensive tricks. I would double on less with more trump tricks + some defense vs. possible minor escapes, never on this hand with only 2 defensive tricks.

But if the sim is showing that doubling on this is profitable, then I think perhaps it is modeling way too aggressive souths, ones overcalling on random 3532 12 hcp? And maybe should be expecting 6+ suit from south rather than 5+, or with 5 cd suit then having much stronger hand/better shape than just 12 pts.

In general GIB seems rather aggro about penalty doubles & leaving in takeout doubles at 2 & 3 levels, not leaving margin for error given that they are doubling opps into game, esp. at imps. Maybe it needs to be tweaked to do what humans are taught to do, pull takeout doubles when only one trick set is expected on average, leaving room for defensive error. It shouldn't be simulating based on results of double-dummy defense since it is unlikely to achieve that in practice.