[chasetb]

http://tinyurl.com/aa5h4be - I would transfer, but then I would Pass over 3♥, and resulting has nothing to do with it. If partner has a good hand, (s)he will super accept, and any other hand isn't good enough to go straight to game.

[Stephen Tu]

chasetb, on 2013-March-09, 22:28, said:

http://tinyurl.com/aa5h4be - I would transfer, but then I would Pass over 3♥, and resulting has nothing to do with it. If partner has a good hand, (s)he will super accept, and any other hand isn't good enough to go straight to game.

Was this IMPs? I think GIB is clearly right to gamble for game if IMPs. I think you are underestimating the power of 5-5 shape catching the right cards opposite. GIB is kind of unlucky to catch you on the 21 count with lots of KQs instead of more aces.

I did a sim, giving South 22-24 bal (+1 for 5+ suits since you promoted a 21), and 2-3 hearts, and out of 500 hands it picked up about 277 games vs. 130 making heart partials converted to going down. The rest, 3h is already down, it doesn't hurt that much, and sometimes it doesn't hurt at all because it can be say 5c - 1 vs. 3h - 1, clubs played a couple tricks better because big fit etc. I didn't take into account opps doubling, but I think it's going to be difficult for them to double.

And I think it's likely even better if South doesn't super-accept with all 4cd heart holdings.

[chasetb]

It is IMPs. I probably am wrong on this one based on the sim, but I would honestly have passed - I've run into WAY too many hands where partner's Support is garbage, and the 2nd suit is attacked immediately on opening lead and I suffer a Club ruff. I rarely super-accept over a 1NT or even a 2NT opening, but with the (21)22-24 HCP bal. hands I super-accept far more (though I bet it's still under 20%).

Change the Q♦ to the Q♥, and it changes the hand enough to where I WOULD force to game no questions asked.