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unrevealing slam

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 12:18



opps are expert, partner is not, lead is 5 (3rd/5th)
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 12:29

Suspect I just prosaically go up with the A and run the 9 might depend pairs/teams.

Why am I not in 6, really don't like the 2 opener or the methods here, we play 2-2N F4N unless a suit is known to be open, so 2-2N-3-3N is forcing and I can bid 4 nat now.
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#3 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 13:02

AK, diamond ruff with the 8. If Q drops, play AK then throw the last heart on the diamond. Otherwise cross in clubs and run 9. Go down when LHO imaginatively plays Q from Qxxxx with a singleton spade.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#4 User is offline   Alik1974 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 14:17

Non-expert partner's 4NT over 3 might mean that he has like 3 or 4 small . The auction would call for a trump lead, however opening leader chose a . There are a few reasons why he chose this lead :
  • he has the tripleton trump Q (and possibly not the A, as he might have led this card instead)
  • he has the doubleton trump Q
  • he has at most one trump and does not want to give out the trump position (again I'd say he lacks the A)
  • his is a singleton

I would play A and try either of these (depending on the mood) :
  • a deceptive 10, intending to pitch a on the K next (unlikely to fool expert defenders, but only costs if lead is singleton)
  • play the 9 intending to finesse

I write some unusual articles about bridge in my bridge blog.
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#5 User is offline   SteveMoe 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 14:44

I'd try:
A, ruff, A
If nothing interesting happens I play Q to K and hook the .
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#6 User is offline   TWO4BRIDGE 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 14:44

View PostCyberyeti, on 2013-February-16, 12:29, said:


Why am I not in 6, really don't like the 2 opener or the methods here....


2C - 2D! ( waiting, but positive )
2S - 2NT
3C - 4C
4D! ( kickback ) - 4NT ( 3rd step = 2 - Q )
6C

or
1S - 1NTF
3C - 4C
4D! ( kickback ) , etc
Don Stenmark
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( 1M-1NT!-3m-?? )." ....Justin Lall

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#7 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 15:08

View PostTWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-February-16, 14:44, said:


1S - 1NTF
3C - 4C
4D! ( kickback ) , etc

Not playing 2/1 I suspect our auction starts 1-2-4(kickback) :)
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#8 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 15:40

Jst out of curiosity, what percentages would you give to each:

Q with west

Q with west
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#9 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-February-16, 19:05

View PostAlik1974, on 2013-February-16, 14:17, said:

[list][*]a deceptive 10, intending to pitch a on the K


I'm in the mood for a heart.
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#10 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2013-February-17, 04:05

Both Nth and Sth, but especially Nth are butchers in the bidding. I run the S9.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#11 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2013-February-17, 05:36

I am having a lot of debates on this hand, so please answer the questions.

Another one:

Switch K and J for A 4 making the suits:

K9
KJ107

AJ10843
A

How do you play trumps after a A lead?


What about 5-3?

K94
A107

AJ1083
KJ
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#12 User is offline   Alik1974 

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Posted 2013-February-18, 01:20

View PostFluffy, on 2013-February-16, 15:40, said:

Jst out of curiosity, what percentages would you give to each:

Q with west

Q with west


I'd say


Q with West : 55%

Q with West : 20%
I write some unusual articles about bridge in my bridge blog.
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#13 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2013-February-18, 02:39

I wouldn't be surprised if LHO has underlead Q with the Q on the side. However, putting all my money on that assumption is too risky. So I'll take the Ace and run 9.
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#14 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2013-February-18, 18:51

View PostFree, on 2013-February-18, 02:39, said:

I wouldn't be surprised if LHO has underlead Q with the Q on the side. However, putting all my money on that assumption is too risky. So I'll take the Ace and run 9.


that makes 0 sense. you're putting all your money on the Q of S instead.

if you want to make a better case for rising with the ace, it offers a modest combination of chances option - the trump finesse or ruffing out the Q of D and getting 2 quick pitches if trumps are 3-2. i would say this is not likely enough to upset me if i thought there was a particular reason to play for 1 queen or the other.

as it happens, i would always bet on the Q of D being with the leader - something like 70-80% (i'm clueless at bridge maths) at a guess. people like leading from honours versus slams in hopes of building a trick and if he didn't have the queen he could have chosen some similar filth from which to lead, definitely in clubs and most likely in hearts, a la PoRC.
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#15 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2013-February-18, 22:14

Agree with the Wank.

Don't think the quality of the opponents would be part of Declarer's thought process after seeing his 2C opener or the 2nt response. Certainly, Fluffy was neither North nor South.
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#16 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2013-February-19, 02:08

I was south :), Don't really know why I open 2 clubs, its completelly against my style, but I did. At least it will serve as a reminder not to do it again ever.
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#17 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2013-February-19, 09:26

View PostTWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-February-16, 14:44, said:

2C - 2D! ( waiting, but positive )
2S - 2NT




That's what I like. Never bid 2NT directly after a 2 opening.
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#18 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-February-19, 10:20

As a general rule, decent players lead aggressively against slams, but there are several caveats here:

1. They are leading round to a 2 opener, which makes it less attractive to attack.

2. North has not shown a trick source, so it is less likely they need to attack.

3. They know we are off a key card, so West is playing partner for, specifically, the diamond king and an ace to get in with. Otherwise, the lead is likely to just be spew.

4. If West has the spade queen, the chances of them attacking are lower still - they will try and find partner's ace.

Depending on the level of West's expertise, I would be inclined to downgrade the chance he has the Q considerably.
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#19 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2013-February-19, 10:26

but below 50% phil? note that the bidding never said that 1 keycard was missing, its 3 + responder ones, and he is not very reliable.
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#20 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-February-19, 10:39

View PostFluffy, on 2013-February-19, 10:26, said:

but below 50% phil? note that the bidding never said that 1 keycard was missing, its 3 + responder ones, and he is not very reliable.


Well it would seem odds no to bid 5NT in an unlimited auction even for an unreliable player. It would be more likely he would do it with a key card missing. :ph34r:

Yes, under 50% if West is VERY good. He will anticipate a random collection in dummy and just try and server the ball into the middle of the court.

I've been trawling through a lot of Vanderbilt, Spingold, USBC, Europeans and World Championships, and attacking slams leads are way less common than I previously thought (no quantifiable data yet).
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