[Walddk]

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2♦ was a one-round force.

You lead ♠K (asking for reverse count) and partner follows with the 2, declarer with the jack. There is one more spade to cash of course, so you do that. Now the trick three decision. We may not be able to defeat the contract, of course, but if we can, what do you suggest?

[ahydra]

I'm playing partner for an Ace, since there are only 20 points outstanding, and declarer might well have opened 2C with a ton of hearts and close to 20 HCPs.

Can we play the ♣7 hoping declarer misguesses when partner has the ♣A?

Or maybe try for a diamond ruff when partner has the ♦A?

Or try a spade, attempting a wild uppercut attempt where declarer has ♥AKQ9xxx and partner the J10 (or similar), so that partner ruffs high and you make your ♥8? (This requires partner to have the DA or declarer to have singleton DA, of course)

I'm probably missing something here since I think any of these could be right. I'll try for a diamond ruff at IMPs and try a club at MPs (gotta cash that CA before it goes away). You may now proceed to laugh at my venturing into the expert forum.

ahydra

[Phil]

If any of us had this at the table, I think a diamond would be automatic. It works when partner has either red Ace, and declarer has at least two diamonds. When declarer has one diamond, we still might beat the hand with an uppercut when partner has two hearts higher than the 8.

A spade needs a parlay like ♥JT9.

A club needs partner to have the ♣AJ.

[kenrexford]

Let's go really strange theory here. (Why not?)

Partner sees three spades on Dummy. His failure to raise spades suggests not having three spades with partner, especially if he has values for a raise (and thus expects me to work that out). Hence, he presumably is known to have one or two spades.

Partner also can be relatively assured that even with two spades the second one would not be ruffed, as he would not likely expect me to have seven spades.

Thus, his count is actually somewhat irrelevant, notwithstanding the agreements. Granted, I might have only five spades, where I need to know whether Opener has three or four of them, but then how is that information useful? So, again, it seems like count is truly non-essential, despite the agreements.

Because partner will expect me to play the second top spade no matter what he plays, he also knows that I will either know to lead a third round of spades or not by what everyone plays and what I actually have (five or six spades). Thus, again, count seems irrelevant.

If, however, he can work out that I will cash two spades, perhaps expecting a stiff but then being surprised, and then have a decision when I hold six spades, as this problem illustrates, then perhaps partner's cards should really not be count but instead should be suit-preference?

This is of course expecting a lot. If the facts turned up strangely with partner showing 1 or 3 spades but turning out to have two, then the message might be clearer. Hence, it might be possible for partner to make a crafty diamond signal if he has the diamond Ace (or the trump Ace), but less so (with the given methods) a crafty club signal, as the "crafty club signal" would just be normal cards for when partner is just showing count and not being creative.

I mention all of this solely as a curiosity of theory.

[phil_20686]

There are 6 hearts out higher than the 8. if Partner holds two of them a spade gains us a trump trick. He needs as little as T9. If declarer over ruffs, he as then he only three top trumps to beat my ace.

Partner could have Q9 or K9 or AT or anything.

I too suspect that partner has a minor suit ace. Declarer could be as strong as AKQ-8th and an ace maybe.

If partner has the club ace, should we not play him for something like: xx Q9 xxxx Axxxx, In that case a spade is necessary.

Obviously partner could have the diamond ace.

Basically boils down to, do you think its more likely that partner has the diamond ace, and declarer has five of the six big hearts, or that partner has two of the 6 top hearts, and either minor suit ace.

It feels close to me.

[ahydra]

Spade works when partner has two of top 6 hearts plus the DA or CA
Diamond works when partner has the DA or the HA, plus declarer has at least two diamonds.

Doing a bit of maths it seems like the probability partner has enough in hearts is 2/7 (assuming declarer has seven including the AK), perhaps a bit less given that declarer might have eight. The odds on diamonds splitting declarer 2, 3 or 4 and partner 4, 3, or 2 look like around 66.7% using RP's vacant spaces calculator. So I'd say the odds favour the diamond.

ahydra

[gnasher]

A diamond works when parner has ♥Kx or ♥Qxx too.

[JLOGIC]

How could we not play a diamond?

[JLOGIC]

phil_20686, on 2012-September-18, 11:05, said:

There are 6 hearts out higher than the 8. if Partner holds two of them a spade gains us a trump trick. He needs as little as T9. If declarer over ruffs, he as then he only three top trumps to beat my ace.

Partner could have Q9 or K9 or AT or anything.

I too suspect that partner has a minor suit ace. Declarer could be as strong as AKQ-8th and an ace maybe.

If partner has the club ace, should we not play him for something like: xx Q9 xxxx Axxxx, In that case a spade is necessary.

Obviously partner could have the diamond ace.

Basically boils down to, do you think its more likely that partner has the diamond ace, and declarer has five of the six big hearts, or that partner has two of the 6 top hearts, and either minor suit ace.

It feels close to me.

lol what? You should consider what holdings that playing a spade wins on, compared to what holdings playing a diamond wins on, and throw out the ones that are irrelevant (that both win or both lose on). I think you will see that it is not remotely close.

[CSGibson]

diamond. Club needs more to be right, and either could go away, but if partner has the club ace and a trump trick, we still achieve par; if partner has the diamond ace and a trump trick, we need to shift now to start getting ruffs.

[lalldonn]

JLOGIC, on 2012-September-18, 13:00, said:

How could we not play a diamond?

This was my thought exactly. I must really be missing something about this problem.

[phil_20686]

JLOGIC, on 2012-September-18, 13:04, said:

lol what? You should consider what holdings that playing a spade wins on, compared to what holdings playing a diamond wins on, and throw out the ones that are irrelevant (that both win or both lose on). I think you will see that it is not remotely close.

Ok, assume partner has two hearts and a minor ace, if the hearts are randomly chosen from the 9 missing hears, then there are 30/72 = 42% chance he has two hearts higher than the 8. So playing a spade wins roughly 42%, and playing a diamond wins roughly fifty percent.

Obviously a diamond is probably better than that, so maybe it really isnt that close after all.

[PhilKing]

phil_20686, on 2012-September-18, 15:26, said:

Ok, assume partner has two hearts and a minor ace, if the hearts are randomly chosen from the 9 missing hears, then there are 30/72 = 42% chance he has two hearts higher than the 8. So playing a spade wins roughly 42%, and playing a diamond wins roughly fifty percent.

Obviously a diamond is probably better than that, so maybe it really isnt that close after all.

Sometimes partners 2-card heart holding includes the king or ace, so you don't need the diamond ace, or any minor-suit ace for that matter, for the diamond switch to work.

Anyway, I cash another spade in case partner has a singleton! Then, if partner follows, I switch to a diamond.

I'd like to know something about South, though. It feels like he probably has a 3 Heart rebid. Maybe he's worried that 3 Hearts is just inv in competition ...

[FrancesHinden]

removed rubbish analysis

This post has been edited by FrancesHinden: 2012-September-18, 15:52

[Walddk]

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I would also think that a diamond switch looks the percentage move. No luck as you see, declarer will take the rest. But this is not the end of the story. East huddled for 15-20 seconds before playing ♠2. West cashed another top spade and switched to a club, the killing defence.

Declarer wasn't happy and called the director. East admitted to having paused for perhaps 10 seconds before playing the 2, because he wasn't sure if the king asked for attitude or count. E-W have been partners for about a year.

What is your ruling? Did they get lucky, or did East pass UI, suit preference signal for clubs?

[dwar0123]

Walddk, on 2012-September-18, 16:54, said:

Declarer wasn't happy and called the director. East admitted to having paused for perhaps 10 seconds before playing the 2, because he wasn't sure if the king asked for attitude or count. E-W have been partners for about a year.

What is your ruling? Did they get lucky, or did East pass UI, suit preference signal for clubs?

What is their normal tempo on opening lead, pausing for 10-20 seconds isn't that unusual when you first see the dummy.

The club doesn't seem a realistic choice unless you interpret that spade as suit preference, perhaps it was how he huddled that transmitted the ui? Or is the partnership good enough to know that the spade count was immaterial and thus suit preference was the signal, this doesn't seem the case with the explanation given by east. But perhaps west just took the view that it was and got lucky, in which case it goes back to what is their normal tempo. If they normally pause then shrug, to bad for declarer.

[Walddk]

dwar0123, on 2012-September-18, 17:28, said:

What is their normal tempo on opening lead, pausing for 10-20 seconds isn't that unusual when you first see the dummy.

The club doesn't seem a realistic choice unless you interpret that spade as suit preference, perhaps it was how he huddled that transmitted the ui? Or is the partnership good enough to know that the spade count was immaterial and thus suit preference was the signal, this doesn't seem the case with the explanation given by east. But perhaps west just took the view that it was and got lucky, in which case it goes back to what is their normal tempo. If they normally pause then shrug, to bad for declarer.

Well, a pause for 10-15 seconds after a card had been called from dummy in normal tempo is a long tank in my world. Besides, the 2 would have been the card no matter what when playing UDCA (my opinion). Although East claimed that they would not give a positive attitude signal from two small, as the King could be from KQ empty.

[JLOGIC]

Was there a BIT? Ok, let's suppose there was.

Was there UI? Yes, but the only UI was that east had 2 spades rather than a stiff. This is irrelevant on this hand as west had 6 spades, if west had 7 spades then the UI would become relevant if west did not try to cash another spade.

I do not see any damage because a slow S2 does not suggest a club shift. It is possible south thinks that EW are cheating and have some agreement that when you have a doubleton you can give suit preference by following slowly or quickly, in which case he should file a recorder form and if there is a pattern of that EW can be busted, but they cannot really make that argument openly and the director cannot assume that if there is no pattern.

FWIW, east gave a reasonable explanation of what he was thinking about. His tank would have been the same with the DA or the CA, so west just made a bad play and got lucky and declarer is whinin about it imo.

[JLOGIC]

dwar0123, on 2012-September-18, 17:28, said:

What is their normal tempo on opening lead, pausing for 10-20 seconds isn't that unusual when you first see the dummy.

This depends on how fast declarer played at trick 1. If declarer took a normal/correct amount of time like 30 seconds at trick 1 and then east thinks for 10-15 more seconds, that is a BIT. If declarer fast played trick 1 then easts hesitation was not a BIT.

[benlessard]

In my experience when the lead ask for count and a player play too slow, its because hes trying to give suit pref instead of giving count ive unfortunatly see that more than once. So If EW are experienced players I would assume that EAST know that the K ask for count and I would roll back to 5H making 5.