[Free]

Scoring: MP

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Bidding went:

2♦ - Dbl - pass - 3♦
pass - 5♦ - all pass

2♦ was multi, showing a weak hand in either Major, Dbl showed ♦.

Tricks 1&2:
♣T - 2 - K - 8
♣A - J - 4 - 6
♣3 - ?

- Where do you place ♦J?
- How do you think the ♦s are divided?
- How do you play?

[Fluffy]

This looks liek a total guess

if you are 100% sure ♣10 is from doubleton the % play is to ruff with ♦K, you will win with either ♦J second or bare wich is better than 50%.

[joker_gib]

Agree with Fluffy :-) and I go for ♦K which I think is the right play !

[inquiry]

Yuck.

Ok, you have three lines.

Line one.
Ruff with King, play diamond ace, re-enter hand, and hook west for the diamond JACK

Line Two.
Ruff with the king, and play diamond AQ.

Line Three.
Ruff with the nine, and when that wins cash the diamond KAQ.

We can eliminate a few of these lines. First, Ruff with the king, diamond ACE, heart Ace and hook a diamond. You are playing WEST for 6-2-3-2 or 2-6-3-2 with the diamond Jack. Using vacant space math (8 known cards WEST (2C, 6M) to six known cards EAST (2 in major, 4 in clubs), this is a losing proposition, as the odds of this specific distribution is only 10.6%. So line one is out.

So do you play for the 2-2 ♦ split (or singleon jack) by ruffing high, or do you ruff low (with the nine), playing EAST for J, Jx, or Jxx (you can not handle Jxxx). From a mathematical standpoint, ruffing with the king and playing for 2-2 (or stiff jack) is slightly better than ruffng with the nine (54.8% versus 51.2%).

So, I ruff with king and play diamonds from the top.

Ben

[flytoox]

Fluffy, on Nov 22 2004, 12:28 AM, said:

This looks liek a total guess

if you are 100% sure ♣10 is from doubleton the % play is to ruff with ♦K, you will win with either ♦J second or bare wich is better than 50%.

I think the lead is CK, rather than C Ten, from Kx of clubs. Pd played C Ten encourage.

[Free]

Lead was ♣10...

[Chamaco]

Free, on Nov 21 2004, 09:41 PM, said:

- Where do you place ♦J?
- How do you think the ♦s are divided?
- How do you play?

The problem is identical to finding the Q when you have 9 cards and the other missing honors (since if you ruff high you have to rely on the drop- as opposed to the 50% finesse).

So I'll treat the problem in exact the same ay as finding the trump Queen.
If the choice was blind, the drop offers about 52% as opposed to about 50% for the finesse.

However here we have other clues from the bidding:
1- 2D multi by LHO modifies the odds (vacant spaces)
2- when there evidences of unbalanced hands (e.g. presence of singletons), it is usually right to finesse rather than play for the drop (see for example "Why you lose at bridge" by SJ Simon).

So I ruff with the 9 of trumps.

[kgr]

Quote

You are playing WEST for 6-2-3-2 or 2-6-3-2 with the diamond Jack. Using vacant space math (8 known cards WEST (2C, 6M) to six known cards EAST (2 in major, 4 in clubs), this is a losing proposition, as the odds of this specific distribution is only 10.6%. So line one is out.

You know West has 6 card Major, 2 card Club and Max 3 in other Major. Or does this West open 2♦ with 6-4 in the Majors.
I Think West and East are:
xxx=xxxxxx=xx=T4 & xxxxx=xx=xx=AK53
or
xx=xxxxxx=xxx=T4 & xxxxxx=xx=x=AK53
and not:
xxxx=xxxxxx=x=T4 & xxxx=xx=xxx=AK53
=> I ruff high, cash D A and finess West for the J later.

[inquiry]

kgr, on Nov 22 2004, 12:24 PM, said:

Quote

You are playing WEST for 6-2-3-2 or 2-6-3-2 with the diamond Jack. Using vacant space math (8 known cards WEST (2C, 6M) to six known cards EAST (2 in major, 4 in clubs), this is a losing proposition, as the odds of this specific distribution is only 10.6%. So line one is out.

You know West has 6 card Major, 2 card Club and Max 3 in other Major. Or does this West open 2♦ with 6-4 in the Majors.
I Think West and East are:
xxx=xxxxxx=xx=T4 & xxxxx=xx=xx=AK53
or
xx=xxxxxx=xxx=T4 & xxxxxx=xx=x=AK53
and not:
xxxx=xxxxxx=x=T4 & xxxx=xx=xxx=AK53
=> I ruff high, cash D A and finess West for the J later.

Nooooooooo

This is only 10% chance. Much better to ruff with the nine or ruff with King and play for 2-2 diamonds. And that is BEFORE thinking about EAST, with a stiff diamond passing 2♦x. If EAST was looking at either

xxxxxxx
xx
x
AKxx

or

xx
xxxxxx
x
AKxx

He would bid over 2♦ finding the 8 card fit with ruffing values and tricks... EAST clearly has at least two diamnonds on the bidding. imho.. but even ignoring that, do the vacant space math.

Ben

[pclayton]

With the trump promotion, the Jack essentially becomes a Queen.

In bridge table math - West has 8 (6 hearts and 2 clubs) and East has 6 (4 clubs and 2 hearts) unknown cards.

I've always been taught not to hook with 9 unless there is a 3 card (or more differential) - old Bridge World article.

Ruff high and bang down A-Q. Nice to know my play matches Ben's calculator

[Free]

kgr, on Nov 22 2004, 05:24 PM, said:

You know West has 6 card Major, 2 card Club and Max 3 in other Major. Or does this West open 2♦ with 6-4 in the Majors.
~snip~

This was the first time I played against these opps (I think). So I have NO IDEA if they open with 5 cards as well, or even 7 card suits, or with 6-4 in the Majors,...

[inquiry]

pclayton, on Nov 22 2004, 01:46 PM, said:

With the trump promotion, the Jack essentially becomes a Queen.

In bridge table math - West has 8 (6 hearts and 2 clubs) and East has 6 (4 clubs and 2 hearts) unknown cards.

I've always been taught not to hook with 9 unless there is a 3 card (or more differential) - old Bridge World article.

Ruff high and bang down A-Q. Nice to know my play matches Ben's calculator

Well, don't trust my math.. there is at least a reasoanble chance, WEST has honor in both majors, and lead a creative club TEN from Txx and a hand like...

♠Qxxx
♥KJTxxx
♦void
♣Txx

And only way to make is to pitch on here, not even ruff... I would like to know their history of passing 2♦X..... for intance does pass show good spades? Does2♦-X-pass show 4+♦? Anyway, I probably ruff high too... but I wonder about the bidding a lot.

ben