[Fluffy]

LHO Fredin, RHO Fallenius. partner is between advanced and expert

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I led ♦J wich seemed best suit, declarer tanked like 2 minutes before playing ♦K, partner wins ♦A (declarer playing ♦5) and returns ♦2. Declarer hesitates for another 30 seconds and plays ♦9. What next?


EDIT: 1NT is 15-17 Balanced

[JLOGIC]

Club? Spade looks pretty dangerous with the 9 in dummy, we might set up an entry for him to get to hearts if he has the queen and we play a spade.

[rhm]

It looks like declarer has misplayed the hand by not going up with the ♦Q. He should know that you have no entry and the ♦9 protects him anyway.
If partner has 3 quick tricks now declarer is dead, unless you return a diamond into his 5 card suit and declarer has the ♥A.
Assume partner has only 2 quick tricks. Partner will have a major suit ace.
I doubt that declarer has bid that way without a spade honor, probably the queen.
So partner has a major suit ace and ♣AQJ and declarer the ♣K. Play the ♣7.

It is true that if partner has the ♠Q, a spade might be necessary to defeat the contract. But holding just the ♠A in the majors looks less attractive for an aggressive jump to 3NT than ♠Q and the ♥A.

Rainer Herrmann

[phil_20686]

Continuing a club is a disaster if partners hand is something like Axx Txx Axxx AQx

It just seems like you could be letting it through when a diamond return will beat it. Even rainers construction of AQJ club, a diamond return beats it trivially unless partner has two diamonds.

Moreover, if he does have five diamonds, the queen of spades and the club K, he can win trivially by rising with the diamond Q at trick two. Next comes six rounds of hearts and north must keep Axx spades to stop you getting two spade tricks by playing a spade, so now it looks like you can always come to two black suit tricks.

OTOH, suppose that declarers diamonds are Q9x. Now rising with the Q might be guaranteeing himself 3d a spade and a club, so he ducks and hopes for a switch?

[rhm]

phil_20686, on 2012-June-15, 05:35, said:

Continuing a club is a disaster if partners hand is something like Axx Txx Axxx AQx

Is this a 15-17 1NT?

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

rhm, on 2012-June-15, 06:26, said:

Is this a 15-17 1NT?

Rainer Herrmann

Make it AQx, xxx, Axxx, AJx which is then.

[yin970902]

because 1NT is 15-17 Balanced ;
in partner's hands,the cards maybe as these：
♠AXX(X)
♥XXXX
♦A2
♣AQJ(X)
;
♠ace is sure;or declarer has 6 tricks♥，♦D,♠ace-king;
a ♦ return is dangerous;
if partner has 4 tricks ♦,then hasnot 15Htcp;
so a club return is my choice.
if return spade,endplay will be done.

[phil_20686]

rhm, on 2012-June-15, 06:26, said:

Is this a 15-17 1NT?

Rainer Herrmann

Because obviously no one ever opens a fourteen count with three aces a strong nt first in at white vs red?

[rhm]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-June-15, 06:31, said:

Make it AQx, xxx, Axxx, AJx which is then.

Declarer would not bid 3NT with nothing in spades

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

rhm, on 2012-June-15, 08:34, said:

Declarer would not bid 3NT with nothing in spades

Rainer Herrmann

You've never bid 3N with 8xxx(x) ? I know I have.

[JLOGIC]

Isn't it obvious that declarer has 5 diamonds? Fluffy basically told us this in the opening post. Declarer thought forever and played the king the thought forever and played the 9. It is even Fallenius who is like 100 % honest with his tempo always.

[JLOGIC]

This is why this type of problem does not translate well to the forums imo, irl you would know if declarer had 5 diamodns or 3 diamonds when he thinks for that long. I thought the OP was suggesting that declarer had 5 diamonds but I could be wrong.

[JLOGIC]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-June-15, 06:31, said:

Make it AQx, xxx, Axxx, AJx which is then.

That gives declarer xxx Axx Q9x KQxx to bid 3N when partner shows hearts lol. That seems extremely unlikely to say the least.

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Moreover, if he does have five diamonds, the queen of spades and the club K, he can win trivially by rising with the diamond Q at trick two. Next comes six rounds of hearts and north must keep Axx spades to stop you getting two spade tricks by playing a spade, so now it looks like you can always come to two black suit tricks.

What if he has no ace of hearts??? He could have Qxx Tx Q97xx AQJ. Now a diamond back is just silly. This is consistent with bidding 3N since he does not have 3 hearts, I imagine 2N would be a cuebid so he would probably be bidding 2N then 3N a lot with a heart fit, including with weak diamonds like Q9x or with 3 small spades. This is also consistent with the 30 second tank D9.

[phil_20686]

JLOGIC, on 2012-June-15, 10:01, said:

What if he has no ace of hearts??? He could have Qxx Tx Q97xx AQJ. Now a diamond back is just silly. This is consistent with bidding 3N since he does not have 3 hearts, I imagine 2N would be a cuebid so he would probably be bidding 2N then 3N a lot with a heart fit, including with weak diamonds like Q9x or with 3 small spades. This is also consistent with the 30 second tank D9.

The problem with this hand is that if gives partner Axx Axxx Ax Kxxx: Surely with that hand, and seeing that dummy, he can work out that it is right to play on clubs himself? It does not seem normal for partner to continue with a diamond with this hand? If declarer does have Qxx Tx Q97xx AQJ the hand is over already? If I return a club he just gets 5 hearts three clubs and a diamond?

I have basically no idea why he tanked. I basically don't understand table presence. I would think that rho is basically 100% to have the heart A. No one ever bids 3N over opponents 1N opener unless they have a suit that they think has a good chance of running. I just dont think declarer having Tx is at all likely. He will have Ax or Axx. I think its fine to have Axx if you have soft values over the 1N bidder. Qxx Axx Q9x KJxx seems like a perfectly normal construction?

Obviously, five diamonds is possible, but I don't really understand how a slow nine gives it up?

[JLOGIC]

phil_20686, on 2012-June-15, 10:31, said:

If declarer does have Qxx Tx Q97xx AQJ the hand is over already? If I return a club he just gets 5 hearts three clubs and a diamond?

How will he get to dummy to score 5 heart tricks?? I am not sure partner would shift to a club with Ax of diamonds, A diamond looks pretty safe when we lead the DJ and he has control of every suit. It seems possible that he will worry a club back will give declarer more timing to finesse him a few times and then endplay him (eg, hook the club, heart to dummy (ducked perforce), club hook, cash a diamond, club club endplaying north or something of that nature. A diamond back seems to have no downside unless partner messes up, it feels like a natural play to me with that hand.

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I would think that rho is basically 100% to have the heart A. No one ever bids 3N over opponents 1N opener unless they have a suit that they think has a good chance of running. I just dont think declarer having Tx is at all likely. He will have Ax or Axx. I think its fine to have Axx if you have soft values over the 1N bidder.

2H showed an opening bid. They play this specifically to find game over 1N. I know on the forum it's common for people to say no one bids game over a strong NT, but that is not my experience especially from people who play that there are 2 ways to bid 2M so that they can find game. If RHO has an opening bid, and his partner showed an opening bid, and he is red/white he is going to bid game. He will even stretch it since he will expect to play the hand double dummy knowing where the points are. Sorry, but just because someone opened 1N w/r in first seat doesn't mean that fallenius will pass with an opening hand opposite a known opening hand because he doesn't have the heart ace.

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I think its fine to have Axx if you have soft values over the 1N bidder. Qxx Axx Q9x KJxx seems like a perfectly normal construction?

Fallenius might bid 3N with that, but I would guess he would bid 2N followed by 3N. Partner could have something like a heart-club 2 suiter, I just don't think it's right to bid 3N when you have 2N followed by 3N available. I'm sure many players would bid 3N with that hand though, so whatever, but there is no way he would tank for THIRTY SECONDS and play the D9 with that hand. It is impossible. There is also very little chance he would tank for 2 minutes at trick 1.

[JLOGIC]

Phil,

Your construction requires:

1) Partner opened a 14 point NT 4333 (possible, but surely there is some high %age that partner wouldn't do this)
2) Fallenius bid 3N rather than 2N with a heart fit and Qxx Qxx in side suits (possible, but surely some %age of the time that he wouldn't do this)
3) Fallenius tanked for 30 seconds and played the D9. Maybe this is because I know the player very well, but think about why he would do this. He would also have tanked for 2 minutes on the easiest trick 1 play and a relatively easy hand (either youre gonna make it or not!).

I would argue that 3 is completely impossible, to the point that 1 and 2 are even irrelevant.

[JLOGIC]

If you are always playing the 9, isn't it not allowed to think in the middle of a non trick 1 about your play? I mean you could probably get away with it but on this hand, one would always play the 9 from Q9 doubleton remaining. Partner could easily lead the 2 back from 2 small knowing that he has all the HCP trying to fool declarer when it is unlikey to matter to partner. At trick 1, even more so, it would just look like a nothing hand to declarer, who would hope diamonds were 5-3 or 6-2. 2 Minute tank for

K9x
KQJxxx
Kx
xx

Qxx
Axx
Q9x
KJxx

with a 1N opener on your right

would just not happen with this declarer

[rhm]

phil_20686, on 2012-June-15, 10:31, said:

The problem with this hand is that if gives partner Axx Axxx Ax Kxxx: Surely with that hand, and seeing that dummy, he can work out that it is right to play on clubs himself? It does not seem normal for partner to continue with a diamond with this hand?

Partner does not know that the ♦J is from a 4 card suit. With control in the majors over dummy I would certainly not do anything but return my diamond.

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If declarer does have Qxx Tx Q97xx AQJ the hand is over already? If I return a club he just gets 5 hearts three clubs and a diamond?

Nonsense. Duck a heart and dummy looks dead. declarer gets a single heart trick.

Quote

I have basically no idea why he tanked. I basically don't understand table presence. I would think that rho is basically 100% to have the heart A. No one ever bids 3N over opponents 1N opener unless they have a suit that they think has a good chance of running. I just dont think declarer having Tx is at all likely. He will have Ax or Axx. I think its fine to have Axx if you have soft values over the 1N bidder. Qxx Axx Q9x KJxx seems like a perfectly normal construction?

The problem is your construction assumes partner has opened a 14 count for no good reason. This is precisely why I do switch to clubs. Partner must have this all important ♣J on this layout.
I agree it is likely that declarer has the ♥A and soft values on the side. Anyway the dangerous case is when declarer has an entry to dummy, because otherwise the hearts are dead and so is the contract. This means declarer must have a major suit ace and he can not have both or he would have had already 9 tricks.
The point is if declarer has 3 diamonds there is no way declarer can make if partner has 15 points.
Just play the ♣7 (not the ♣2) and partner will switch back to diamonds if a club continuation will not establish another trick. Easy.

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Obviously, five diamonds is possible, but I don't really understand how a slow nine gives it up?

If declarer has ♠Qx(x),♥Ax,♦Q9xxx,♣Qxx(x) or a point more in clubs declarer can make the contract by going up with the queen at trick 2 but this is at least not obvious.
A spade could be right if partner has something like ♠Qxx,♥ ATxx,♦Ax,♣ AJxx, but it is a long shot in my opinion.

Rainer Herrmann

[JLOGIC]

rhm, on 2012-June-15, 12:44, said:

If declarer has ♠Qx(x),♥Ax,♦Q9xxx,♣Qxx(x) or a point more in clubs declarer can make the contract by going up with the queen at trick 2 but this is at least not obvious.

Rainer Herrmann

In that case, his tank(s) make a lot of sense, since going up with the queen is certainly a viable option (in fact, a winning one), and its clearly going to be a tough hand to play at trick 1 so he tanked for 2 minutes.

I am going to stop contributing to this thread since I want to look up the hand now as I am paranoid that I am looking like an idiot.

Edit: If someone can help me find the hand and pm me I'd appreciate it...I clicked on spains results and got this error. I thought EUROPE was the best continent ever since you can see all the hand records!

[Phil]

See Board 2