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precentage play

#1 User is offline   Flame 

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Posted 2004-November-14, 07:10

What is the right way to play these ?
1.

2.


Those arent rare as they may seem because you can move some small cards to the second hand as long as you only have one entry to it.
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#2 User is offline   ack_hh 

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Posted 2004-November-14, 08:12

Hand #2, IMPS, 3NT, 6 tricks in bag: I'd suggest A, K, Q ;))
"Running free Ts for the thank you would be like becoming a dental surgeon for the conversation" -= rigour6 =-
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Posted 2004-November-14, 08:37

Ending one, low to the JACK (if east plays low)

Ending two, cash heart ACE.
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Posted 2004-November-14, 08:59

inquiry, on Nov 14 2004, 09:37 AM, said:

Ending one, low to the JACK (if east plays low)

Ending two, cash heart ACE.

Can you give aproximate chances ?
Number 1 for the finnesing to work you need Qx or Q or Qxx onside.
While not finnesing you need Qx or Q or xxx or xxxx onside.
We can take out Q and Qx which are on both group ending up with
Qxx opposite xxx and xxxx.
What are the chances of it ?
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#5 User is offline   mpefritz 

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Posted 2004-November-14, 09:17

I will do formal calculations later, but the The Official Encyclopedia of Bridge, under suit combinations, states that for AKJT9xx across from x, the best play is to finesse the J. "This line is 4% better than playing off the ace and king." 37% chance of taking all 7 tricks
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Posted 2004-November-14, 10:43

Flame, on Nov 14 2004, 10:59 AM, said:

inquiry, on Nov 14 2004, 09:37 AM, said:

Ending one, low to the JACK (if east plays low)

Ending two, cash heart ACE.

Can you give aproximate chances ?
Number 1 for the finnesing to work you need Qx or Q or Qxx onside.
While not finnesing you need Qx or Q or xxx or xxxx onside.
We can take out Q and Qx which are on both group ending up with
Qxx opposite xxx and xxxx.
What are the chances of it ?

Let's deal with problem two first. In problem 2, the correct respons is to cash AKQ is just more than 54%, working with any 3-3, and any Jx doubleton or Jack singleton. The hook is roughly 50% (well, significantly less, since nothing working with 6-0 or 51 to the jack even if one side - so the finessee is ~43% chance).

Cashing AKQ, if suit is 3-3 (35.5%), or doubleton Jx (16.5%), or singleton J (2.4%). which comes to 54.1%.

Problem one is quite different. Missing five cards to the queen,the odds favor the fineesee. Like with problem 2, the hook will not win even if the queen is onside too too much legnth (four or five), so the odds of hook winning is 36.7%.

So how does cashing AK work? Well, singlton Queen either hand, or doubleton Queen either hand. But since the suit with five cards can't split evenly (like 3-3 in example 2), the odds are that the queen will be in the long suit. Odds of cashing AK works when queen is slngleton (5.7%) or doubleton queen (27.1%), total only (32.8%).
--Ben--

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Posted 2004-November-14, 11:32

Nice
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#8 User is offline   xx1943 

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Posted 2004-November-14, 15:42

inquiry, on Nov 14 2004, 06:43 PM, said:

Problem one is quite different. Missing five cards to the queen,the odds favor the fineesee. Like with problem 2, the hook will not win even if the queen is onside too too much legnth (four or five), so the odds of hook winning is 36.7%.

So how does cashing AK work? Well, singlton Queen either hand, or doubleton Queen either hand. But since the suit with five cards can't split evenly (like 3-3 in example 2), the odds are that the queen will be in the long suit. Odds of cashing AK works when queen is slngleton (5.7%) or doubleton queen (27.1%), total only (32.8%).

Hi

For those who don't like math here a nice link:

Missing cards calculator

Have fun with it

Al
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#9 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2004-November-14, 15:45

Finesse both, 50% is more than 43%...
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#10 User is offline   uday 

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Posted 2004-November-14, 16:00

This program, suitplay, computes the odds for any combination.

http://home.planet.n...cis45/SuitPlay/

I have used prior versions, but perhap not this one. As always, virus scan the beastie before running it..
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Posted 2004-November-14, 16:14

Free, on Nov 14 2004, 05:45 PM, said:

Finesse both, 50% is more than 43%...

Finessee isn't 50%. It is true, that it is 50% that the Q or J is "onside". Sadly, if RHO has Qxxxx or Jxxxx in the problems, finessee willnot pick it up. Niether will finesee pick it up if EAST has Qxxx.

Ben
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