[EarlPurple]

Scoring: XIMP

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Hands are rotated. North passed, East opened 1NT, West bid a 2♦ transfer to hearts, doubled by North. East completed the transfer and South bid 3♦. Subsequently you end up in 6♣ by West with no further opposition bidding.

♦Q is led. When you eventually try trumps, North is void. So you cannot fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps and leaving trumps in both hands before losing a heart.

That means you must pick up hearts for just one loser by attacking the suit yourself. What do you think is the best way to do that?

The following lines are options:

- Start in hand with the jack. If North plays low, run it. Next round lay down the ace and hope to find North with Hx. If North covers, take the ace and lead one back to the 10. So either way you pick up Hx with North.

- Start by leading a low heart from dummy. If South jumps in with an honour, on the next round finesse against North.

- Lay down the ace, hoping to catch a player with a singleton honour, or KQ alone in any hand. This may also work as part of a partial-elimination.

- Any other line?

Not important what worked at the table. I would like to know what the correct line is.

[HeartA]

To start with J from hand, handles North with Q/K stiff, Kx or Qx, Kxx or Qxx, or KQ(x)(x) (without 9)

To start small from dummy can handle South with stiff HK/Q/9, Kx, Qx, 9x or K9, Q9, KQ (assume declarer guesses correctly).

To cash HA first, you can only handle K/Q stiff or KQ doubleton from either side.

Line #1 is the best.

[the hog]

Play Sth for Hx in H

[luke warm]

i agree with ron, it seems the best chance

[inquiry]

Hi. Sorry Jimmy, sorry Ron, but this is not even close. HeartA got it right (well, he will not make with KQ tight on side, since has to play for singleton K or Q, but that is only small problem). If you want to consider this heart suit in isolation, the correct play is ......

Heart JACK from dummy, if this loses to WEST honor, then, cash heart ACE. This works anytime EAST has Hx, or WEST has KQ doubleton. Total percentage of that, is 23.74%

But this isn't all. The is also the times that EAST COVERS the JACK with the an honor, you are still in the game. Win the ACE and lead a low heart. If West has a singleton NINE or doubleton NINE, the TEN will force the other honor and the heart queen is a winner. The chance of 9 or 9x with WEST is 9.70%). This brings the odds up to 33.35%. You also have the idea that EAST has a singleton K or Q, you win the ace and play a heart towards the Ten, this brings the odds of losing only one heart up to 39%.

Playing the ACE hoping for singleton K, or Q, or doubleton KQ is only 18% chance. And leading low towards the JTxxx to play WEST for Hx is better, but not a lot better. It works if WEST has Hx or H, but loses to KQ doubleton, this comes to 26%.

Ben

[jtfanclub]

EarlPurple, on Nov 8 2004, 05:35 PM, said:

♦Q is led. When you eventually try trumps, North is void. So you cannot fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps and leaving trumps in both hands before losing a heart.

That means you must pick up hearts for just one loser by attacking the suit yourself.

OK, I don't get it.

♦ AK, sluffing a spade. spade to the ace, club back to hand, ruff a spade high, club back to hand, ruff your last spade high, high club from dummy, ♥J, playing the ace whether North covers or not, small heart back toward dummy. Works any time a heart honor is singleton or doubleton, or the 9 is doubleton and North covers. Because of the elimination, the player with the Hx has to win the trick and allow you to ruff on the board while discarding your last heart from hand.

But what I just did was fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps. I even ruff the spades high, which means the only risk would be a 9-1 split in diamonds or an 7-1 split in spades. You said it can't be done.

So what did I miss?

[inquiry]

jtfanclub, on Nov 9 2004, 12:01 AM, said:

OK, I don't get it.

♦ AK, sluffing a spade. spade to the ace,club back to hand ( 1 dummy club ), ruff a spade high ( 2nd dummy club ), club back to hand ( 3rd dummy club ), ruff your last spade high ( 4th dummy club ), high club from dummy ( 5th and last dummy club ), ♥J, playing the ace whether North covers or not, small heart back toward dummy. Works any time a heart honor is singleton or doubleton, or the 9 is doubleton and North covers. Because of the elimination, the player with the Hx has to win the trick and allow you to ruff on the board ( with the magic 6th dummy club ) while discarding your last heart from hand.

But what I just did was fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps. I even ruff the spades high, which means the only risk would be a 9-1 split in diamonds or an 7-1 split in spades. You said it can't be done.

So what did I miss?

What did you miss? The fact that the rules will not yet you use one of dummys trumps twice.

Ben

[jtfanclub]

Thank you, I knew I was missing something stupid.

I'm not drawing that last trump, then. Maybe the opps will do something dumb, maybe I'll get lucky.

[EarlPurple]

HeartA, on Nov 8 2004, 11:24 PM, said:

To start with J from hand, handles North with Q/K stiff, Kx or Qx, Kxx or Qxx, or KQ(x)(x) (without 9)

It also picks up North with xxx and South with KQ. You run the jack and lose to the queen or king, then your ace next round picks up South's other honour.

That was actually the lie of the cards so this play would have worked at the table, but as I said, what actually works at the table is not necessarily the best line.

With no knowledge of any other suit, I think this line probably has the edge, but given that South showed up with the club length, does that favour North having the longer hearts? (He did). The double of 2♦ and subsequent 3♦ bid might suggest at 6-4 split (they were) but could also be 5-5?

[luke warm]

inquiry, on Nov 9 2004, 03:47 AM, said:

Hi. Sorry Jimmy, sorry Ron, but this is not even close. ~snip~

Scoring: XIMP

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don't understand this comment... why isn't leading low toward the J♥ "even close?"... perhaps it isn't, but it seems to me there are more distributions where it works vs. where it doesn't... course i probably missed a couple or more

[pclayton]

Too lazy to calculate %'s this AM, but I think the Hx combo's equal each other out when LHO rises with Hx.

LHO should not rise of course, but RHO shouldn't cover from Hx either.

[inquiry]

EarlPurple, on Nov 9 2004, 05:33 AM, said:

HeartA, on Nov 8 2004, 11:24 PM, said:

To start with J from hand, handles North with Q/K stiff, Kx or Qx, Kxx or Qxx, or KQ(x)(x) (without 9)

It also picks up North with xxx and South with KQ. You run the jack and lose to the queen or king, then your ace next round picks up South's other honour.

yes.. it picks up north with 9xx and South with KQ... but not the other way around...

To Jimmy, why isn't small heart towards JTxxx better? Fun exercise, work out the odds and get back to us.

Ben

[luke warm]

well i thought i did, which is why i asked... i come up with 9:7 for low heart toward the J (or 9:8)

[inquiry]

Ok, we will do it the hard way. For the purpose here, we will call the king and the queen, JUST "K" (two kings, no queens).

There turns out to be 18 distubutions, ranging from void KK9xx to KK9xx void... You can't make it against the two five-o's, so that knocks it down to 16 distributions. Now can you make it when KKx, KK9, KKxx. or KK9x. that removes another four possible distributions (this exludes some magic endplay). Nor can you make it if North has KK9 or KK9x.

So you are down to just 10 possible club distributions where you can make the hand. These are.

         South         North         Probabliliy
1         9         KKxx         2.826
2         9x         KKx         6.783
3         9xx         KK         3.391
4         K         K9xx         5.652
5         Kx         K9x         13.565
6         Kxx         K9         6.783
7         K9         Kxx         6.783
8         K9x         Kx         13.565
9         K9xx         K         5.652
10         KK         9xx         3.391

You COULD make the hand on the patterns in bold, which comes to 35.6%, but there is an illusion here. To make it when WEST has Kx, you have to lead low, and if LHO plays low, you have to pop up with the ACE on the way back. This cause problems when WEST plays the 9. Did he play that from holding one (when you have to hook on the way back, or from holding 7, where you have to go up with the ACE? You can't have your cake and edat it to... Against bad player, assume signleton nine, against good player, assume K9 doubleton, which is twice as likely. This reduces your ods from 35.6 to 32.7%. But we are still not done. What about when you play low towards the JT, and west jumps up with the K (either one). Now you have two choices. West could be KQ doubleton (condition 10), where you have to lead the ACE out dropping the second honor, or he could have singleton K (or Q) (condition 4) where you have to lead the JACK and run it. Since Singleton K or Q is twice as likely as KQ tight, you will lose to KQ doubleton behind you, so your odds drop from 32.7% to 29.38, the making table looks like this...

South North Probabliliy
1 9 KKxx 2.826
2 9x KKx 6.783
3 9xx KK 3.391
4 K K9xx 5.652
5 Kx K9x 13.565
6 Kxx K9 6.783
7 K9 Kxx 6.783
8 K9x Kx 13.565
9 K9xx K 5.652
10 KK 9xx 3.391
This totals not a terrible 29.4%


Now. let's examine the lines where you start with the HEART JACK, with the following plan (so we don't have to subtract hands like we did above). If east covers, we are winning and playing low to the TEN. If East ducks, we let the jack ride (pesumably losing to the "K". then we bang the heart ACE on the next round.

         South         North         Probabliliy
1         9         KKxx         2.826
2         9x         KKx         6.783
3         9xx         KK         3.391
4         K         K9xx         5.652
5         Kx         K9x         13.565
6         Kxx         K9         6.783
7         K9         Kxx         6.783
8         K9x         Kx         13.565
9         K9xx         K         5.652
10         KK         9xx         3.391
This totals a very reasonable 39%

This is my definition of not very close. 29% versus 39%. Leading the heart jack is a third better than leading low towards the JT....

[luke warm]

ok, thx... remember, i was playing south (as ron was too, i presume) for Hx, so if he had Kx or Qx i think he'd hop up... anyway, if south played low on my lead toward the jack, the plan all along was to play the ace next... but it is good to know the odds

[inquiry]

luke warm, on Nov 11 2004, 05:29 PM, said:

ok, thx... remember, i was playing south (as ron was too, i presume) for Hx, so if he had Kx or Qx i think he'd hop up... anyway, if south played low on my lead toward the jack, the plan all along was to play the ace next... but it is good to know the odds

Hm.. so if south plays low from Kx you are doing what? Leading Ten trying to pin the 9x? I think whatever way you decide to go, it will still be less than that 39% on the correct (hehehehe) line.

If South is willing to duck with Kx or Qx, you are toasted, unless your plan is to bang the ACE on the next round. I believe this was Ron's strategy. If South plays honor on first round, hook on the second. If South ducks (no matter how smoothly), to bang the ACE on the second round. Of course, shortly he will speak for himself.

Ben

[luke warm]

right, i expect that was ron's plan all along, and i know it is mine, low to the J, play A next... but your odds show this to be slightly (*grin) inferior

[jikl]

Still a trump out there Jlall

Sean