[pigpenz]

playing in a weak sectional field which line of play would you choose
at 6NT(south), opening lead is small diamond and east plays K♦

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[phil_20686]

If I come down to AT!H opposite x!h T!d with the lead in the south hand, what are the discards? no need to decide until the last minute.

I guess that endagers the contract slightly, so maybe I would cash 6 rounds of clubs and see where we stood.

[the_clown]

I would tend to finess, LHO didnt lead a ♥, possibly he has the King. I would cash the ♣ and the ♠ first, maybe I could figure out which hand has the long ♥.

[dave_w]

Probably it's best to take the finesse. I'd hate to take less tricks than everyone else because I got given a trick on the lead

Also, if this is a weak sectional field perhaps the discussion belongs elsewhere. Against experts the discards aren't going to tell you a lot (although they would signal some information in order to break up a pseudo squeeze). I run 6 rounds of clubs then take the Heart hook unless something unusual has happened.

[rogerclee]

Seems obvious to come down to x QT in the reds and see where we stand, I will probably end up taking the hook if RHO seemed to have no problems with his discards, but maybe RHO will come down to Kx J in the reds and we don't have to guess. If they are not good I don't think they will ever fool me by stiffing their HK so I don't see what the problem is.

[pigpenz]

rogerclee, on 2012-April-17, 10:28, said:

Seems obvious to come down to x QT in the reds and see where we stand, I will probably end up taking the hook if RHO seemed to have no problems with his discards, but maybe RHO will come down to Kx J in the reds and we don't have to guess. If they are not good I don't think they will ever fool me by stiffing their HK so I don't see what the problem is.

if any help east shows out on second ♣ and starts shedding some diamonds

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you can come down to this ending if you so choose(sorry the spots are off but basic ending)
reason I was asking will the expert go for squeeze or just do what they expect the field to do

[billw55]

We may already be in a good situation at matchpoints: some pairs may be in 6♣; in a weak field some pairs may not be in slam at all. Also some pairs will not get a diamond lead, but this does not seem to matter - those pairs will all take the heart finesse and make either 12 or 13 tricks, same as us.

♥K onside or ♥K♦J together both seem to be about 50-50 propositions. Maybe I can learn something about the distribution or by watching them squirm. rogerclee's line seems clear to me.

[rduran1216]

just as a matter of technique im cashing the diamond Q at trick 11. By then ill know what to do by what has shown up. I think we're all saying the same thing.

[FrancesHinden]

I will not risk going off.
All things being equal, the finesse is better odds: the red suit squeeze only gains if RHO has both the HK and the DJ. The finesse wins when LHO has the HK, whoever has the DJ. Also, anyone in 6NT who didn't get a diamond lead is going to take the heart finesse, why should I put myself in a worse position than people who had a less favourable lead?

[gszes]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-17, 14:24, said:

I will not risk going off.
All things being equal, the finesse is better odds: the red suit squeeze only gains if RHO has both the HK and the DJ. The finesse wins when LHO has the HK, whoever has the DJ. Also, anyone in 6NT who didn't get a diamond lead is going to take the heart finesse, why should I put myself in a worse position than people who had a less favourable lead?

lets have a cheer for the "practical" thinkng. Playing a squeeze or finesse propostion should
really only be a major consideration when it is to make the contract. Here you are risking your
contract to get an overtrick. Makes little sesne and most likely will end with your name in the
daily bulleting for the wrong reason.

[JLOGIC]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-17, 14:24, said:

I will not risk going off.
All things being equal, the finesse is better odds: the red suit squeeze only gains if RHO has both the HK and the DJ. The finesse wins when LHO has the HK, whoever has the DJ. Also, anyone in 6NT who didn't get a diamond lead is going to take the heart finesse, why should I put myself in a worse position than people who had a less favourable lead?

It depends on the opps but I would easily back myself at 9:1 to guess the ending against normal opps easily. So you are taking a large risk that will cost a small amount of the time to gain a trick over those people who had a less favorable lead. Yes, maybe the gain is small and the risk is huge but if the frequency of gain:loss is large enough then it is worth it

[rduran1216]

nobody is saying play for squeeze or play for finesse. You will be able to read the position at trick 12 against most non-experts. If the goal is to decide on 12 or 13 tricks, you can make that choice at trick 12 rather than trick 2, thats the point.

[benlessard]

I dont remember last time a weak opponents stiff a king in a nonchalent way against me. Im not usually expert at reading discards but here its likely that im going to get the count in D or in spades, meaning that I often going to have a risk free play for the drop in the end.

[gnasher]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-17, 18:05, said:

It depends on the opps but I would easily back myself at 9:1 to guess the ending against normal opps easily. So you are taking a large risk that will cost a small amount of the time to gain a trick over those people who had a less favorable lead. Yes, maybe the gain is small and the risk is huge but if the frequency of gain:loss is large enough then it is worth it

But wouldn't you also back yourself to guess the layout correctly after six rounds of clubs and only one round of spades? The relevant question is how much extra you gain from cashing the other two spades and ♦A before deciding what to do.

I agree with Frances. I might play for the squeeze, and I might take the finesse, but I'm not going to reach the squeeze position and then take a finesse.

[han]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-17, 14:24, said:

All things being equal, the finesse is better odds: the red suit squeeze only gains if RHO has both the HK and the DJ. The finesse wins when LHO has the HK, whoever has the DJ.

I'm confused.

Aren't the lines equal when LHO holds both, the squeeze is better when RHO holds both and the finesse is better when LHO has the heart king and RHO has the diamond king? If so then you are correct that the finesse is better odds, but it is by a very small amount.

It certainly looks better to take some club tricks before we decide on emotional grounds.

[gnasher]

han, on 2012-April-18, 05:44, said:

Aren't the lines equal when LHO holds both, the squeeze is better when RHO holds both and the finesse is better when LHO has the heart king and RHO has the diamond king? If so then you are correct that the finesse is better odds, but it is by a very small amount.

"Very small" is an overbid (or an underbid, depending on your frame of reference).

As we seem not to have noticed which small diamond LHO led, the only distibutional information we have at that this point is that RHO has ♦K, so he has one fewer vacant place than LHO. The chance that RHO has ♦J and ♥K is 12/25 * 11/24 = 0.22. The chance that LHO has ♥K but not ♦J is 12/25 * 13/24 = 0.26. Hence the finesse currently has a 4% edge.

Quote

It certainly looks better to take some club tricks before we decide on emotional grounds.

I doubt if anyone who's posted would intentionally rely on emotion rather than judgement and analysis. Comments like " I'd hate to take less tricks than everyone else because I got given a trick on the lead" are just shorthand for an evaluation of the risk/reward ratio.

Of course, people may actually be making emotional decisions, regardless of whether it's "I don't want to risk losing my good score" or "I believe in my card-reading skills".

(Edited to correct ♦J to ♦K and vice-versa.)

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2012-April-18, 06:55

[rhm]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-17, 14:24, said:

I will not risk going off.
All things being equal, the finesse is better odds: the red suit squeeze only gains if RHO has both the HK and the DJ. The finesse wins when LHO has the HK, whoever has the DJ. Also, anyone in 6NT who didn't get a diamond lead is going to take the heart finesse, why should I put myself in a worse position than people who had a less favourable lead?

I agree in an expert field.

1) The fact that the opening leader could have led a safe black suit card makes it quite unlikely that he has led from the ♦J
2) The field is said to be weak. It is odds-on that East will not be competent enough to blank his ♥K in the three card ending to keep Jx in diamonds.
3) If that is true is is risk free to take the heart finesse at trick 12 if the diamond jack has not dropped.
4) Making an overtrick in 6NT could be worth nearly as many matchpoints (if the heart king is wrong) as it would cost to go down in 6NT.

The risk is small.

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

rhm, on 2012-April-18, 06:23, said:

1) The fact that the opening leader could have led a safe black suit card makes it quite unlikely that he has led from the ♦J

I don't see why that's relevant. If LHO has ♦J, all lines will lead to the same number of tricks (assuming RHO isn't up to blanking ♥K in order to keep a small diamond). Hence we are only concerned with the situations where ♦J is on the right.

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4) Making an overtrick in 6NT could be worth nearly as many matchpoints (if the heart king is wrong) as it would cost to go down in 6NT.

I don't see why you think that. In a weak field, we can expect a number of pairs to get to 6♣, and some to miss the slam entirely.

There may even be some pairs in seven. With ♥K onside we can't beat them, but if it's offside we will beat them as long as we don;t contrive to go down ourselves.

[rhm]

gnasher, on 2012-April-18, 07:03, said:

I don't see why that's relevant. If LHO has ♦J, all lines will lead to the same number of tricks (assuming RHO isn't up to blanking ♥K in order to keep a small diamond). Hence we are only concerned with the situations where ♦J is on the right.

I only made the point that this is very likely the case: Few opening leaders would lead from a jack, when they can lead from nothing.

Quote

I don't see why you think that. In a weak field, we can expect a number of pairs to get to 6♣, and some to miss the slam entirely.

There may even be some pairs in seven. With ♥K onside we can't beat them, but if it's offside we will beat them as long as we don;t contrive to go down ourselves.

A matter of judgment and how weak the field is.
I did not assume a field of novices and I said nearly as many matchpoints.
When you have 33 HCP between the two hands and a 6-3 fit in clubs, where the 6 card suit is quite strong, I guess that few will miss slam and most will end up in 6NT.
Pairs in seven are more likely in a strong field than in a weak field.
If you compare Francis strategy with mine
Francis will receive 100% of the time average plus
I will receive 52% average plus (♥K on your left)
I will receive around 45% of the time a top and about 3% of the time a bottom.

If the ♥K is wrong you can expect a score around 55% for 6NT making. When I can get 100% with very little risk, I do not play safe for an average plus.
I like those odds.

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

rhm, on 2012-April-18, 07:31, said:

If you compare Francis strategy with mine
Francis will receive 100% of the time average plus
I will receive 52% average plus (♥K on your left)
I will receive around 45% of the time a top and about 3% of the time a bottom.

I think you have misunderstood Frances's strategy (as well as how to spell her name). I believe her plan is to cash the winners that she can cash safely, and then decide whether to take the finesse or play the squeeze. The only difference, as I understand it, is that you plan to cash all of your winners before deciding what to do. So you increase your chance of an overtrick by whatever you gain from cashing one more diamond and two more spades, and you increase your risk of going down by the probability that RHO blanks ♥K and you misguess.