[kgr]

MP's

---

3S iso 3C by South would have been forcing in their system. 3C was a misbid.
West leads ♦2 (3th/5th). How do you play?

[sfi]

6NT from North looks pretty good, so I can't play to make the same number of tricks in spades. Luckily, playing a different line also looks to be the right way to try and make the hand, so I'm going to play the top diamond, spades, and hearts.

If the queen drops offside I get a great score. If the queen doesn't drop (or RHO has Qx) but I get to ditch my diamond loser on the third heart I beat everyone in game but lose to the people in 6NT. Not enough people will be in 6S for that comparison to be a major issue, IMO.

[Phil]

A. Rising ♦A and playing two high trumps works when:

The ♠Q drops doubleton (28%)

or

Diamonds are 3-3 (an additional 1-28% x 36% or (+/- 27%)

or

Diamonds are 4-2 and the hand with the long diamond has the trump Q. Tricky to calculate but off the top of my head (1-55% x 48% x 50% (a little less...) so about another 11%).

Let's call "A" 66%.


B. The diamond hook needs the diamond working (50%) or Qx (16%) or Qxx (18%) of spades onside x the remaining 50%. An additional 17%.

"B" is 67%. Of course we also need to survive 6-1 diamonds, so which happens 6.7% (OK, I had to look this one up Han), so the diamond. So the remaining chances need to be discounted.

So its very close, but I think A wins by a nose.

[gnasher]

Phil, on 2012-April-12, 14:35, said:

A. Rising ♦A and playing two high trumps works when:
...
Diamonds are 4-2 and the hand with the long diamond has the trump Q. Tricky to calculate but off the top of my head (1-55% x 48% x 50% (a little less...) so about another 11%).

It has to be ♠Qxx, so that should be
(1-55%) x 48% x 36% x 50% ~= 4%

PS: You meant "hearts", not "diamonds"

[sfi]

gnasher, on 2012-April-12, 14:41, said:

It has to be ♠Qxx, so that should be
(1-55%) x 48% x 36% x 50% ~= 4%

PS: You meant "hearts", not "diamonds"

Don't you want the hand with 4 hearts to have the small trump? The queen isn't relevant at this point. BTW, this line also makes whenever there is a singleton SQ and two rounds of hearts stand up.

[Phil]

gnasher, on 2012-April-12, 14:41, said:

It has to be ♠Qxx, so that should be
(1-55%) x 48% x 36% x 50% ~= 4%

PS: You meant "hearts", not "diamonds"

You are right - I meant hearts.

With 4-2 hearts, I need either

♠Qxxx + ♥ (four or five times)

or

♠Qxx to hold the two hearts.

Better than 4% but I have a headache

[gnasher]

There are also

C: ♦A, top hearts. If RHO ruffs the third heart, discard. Later take a trump finesse.

D: ♦A, top hearts. If RHO ruffs the third heart, overruff. Later play trumps from the top.

And hybrids like varying what you do in trumps according to who ruffed the heart.

But my head hurts too.

[Trumpace]

Phil, on 2012-April-12, 14:53, said:

You are right - I meant hearts.

With 4-2 hearts, I need either

♠Qxxx + ♥ (four or five times)

or

♠Qxx to hold the two hearts.

Better than 4% but I have a headache

A hair for that nose : Add to that JT doubleton heart + SQxxx with RHO.

[nige1]

rubbish deleted

[Fluffy]

I´m starting to think the best you can do with this hands is to simulate 100 possible hands and manually look what line works the most.

[han]

My head also hurts, mainly because we are in such a bad contract. In a decent game I expect a large part of the field to be in 6NT, so playing spades from the top seems like a good idea. Even though I try not to think like this because the field never behaves like I expect it too, it sounds like a good reason to play spades from the top.

I don't see any layouts where gnasher's line D beats line A, but when either player has 2 hearts and 2 spades you'd be down while line A makes. Line C also seems worse than line A, and as far as I can see never beats playing in 6NT while line A does.

But really, the worst thing about this hand is that I cannot even complain about partner, who bid perfectly. I on the other hand misbid twice, first forgetting the system and then jumping to the wrong slam. Having bid this way I know I won't be able to sleep tonight.

[kgr]

---

North did in fact lead S2 and I claimed for 6S+1
Score for EW: 19/40
A lot of pairs were in 6NT and one even in 7S!
(I wondered what was best play if LHO would have lead D2

[kgr]

Fluffy, on 2012-April-13, 07:01, said:

I´m starting to think the best you can do with this hands is to simulate 100 possible hands and manually look what line works the most.

I entered hand and bidding in Jack with D2 lead and analyzed 1000 deals.
(Jack will not take into account that other tables can be in 6NT!)
Jack plays SAK and HAKQ. Not sure how important the cards played by NS are for Jack (if he believes that it is distribution).
Expected scores:
T1:
DA: 740.9
DQ: 520.8
=> Play DA, T2:
S5: 754.3
CK: 730.5
H: 729.9
=> T2 W:
SK/A: 594.1
ST: 373.0
=> Play SK, T3:
CQ/A: 574.7
HA: 572.3
SA: 558.0
=> Play CA, T4:
HA: 585.5
SA: 549.6
CQ: 511.3
=> Play HA, T5:
SA: 520.7
CQ: 485.3
H3: 471.3
=> Play SA, T6:
H3: 553.4
C2: 473.9
=> Play H3 to Q
Followed by HK: -1

[sfi]

kgr, on 2012-April-13, 09:07, said:

A lot of pairs were in 6NT and one even in 7S!

How many pairs stayed out of slam? Those are the ones we all lost matchpoints to from our chosen line of play.

[kgr]

sfi, on 2012-April-13, 09:24, said:

How many pairs stayed out of slam? Those are the ones we all lost matchpoints to from our chosen line of play.

7S: 1x
6NT+1: 8x
6S+1: 4x
6H: 1x
3NT+4: 2x
4S+3: 2x
2S+5: 1x
6NT-2: 2x
6NT-3: 1x

[Phil]

1. Top is 40, but the board is only played 22 times.

2. Boggles me that every 6♠ contract made 7.

[kgr]

Phil, on 2012-April-13, 10:41, said:

1. Top is 40, but the board is only played 22 times.

21 times in fact. 6NT-1 happened only once.
0 for bottom, 2 for 2nd lowest, 4 for 3th lowest

Phil, on 2012-April-13, 10:41, said:

2. Boggles me that every 6♠ contract made 7.

If N doesn't lead D then everybody will finish S.

[mfa1010]

Against a good defender I think the diamomd finesse is indicated. They will tend to lead from strength here, and with nothing in the minors they will tend to lead a club.

Against a bad defender I don't know. It might be the other way around. It depends on the player. Against the actual player who lead a spade, which is lol, flying ♦A would surely have been right, had we got a diamond lead.

[MrAce]

mfa1010, on 2012-April-13, 16:50, said:

Against a good defender I think the diamomd finesse is indicated. They will tend to lead from strength here, and with nothing in the minors they will tend to lead a club.

I like this one

[gnasher]

han, on 2012-April-13, 07:26, said:

Line C also seems worse than line A

A: Top trumps, then hearts
C: Hearts, discarding, then trump finesse

A and C both work when hearts are 3-3 and trumps not 5-1.

A gains over C against:
- ♠Qx offside with hearts 4-2: 8% x 24% (minus a bit for vacant places)
- ♠Qx onside with hearts 5-1: 8% * 7% (minus a bit for vacant places)
- ♠Qxx offside with hearts 2=4: 18% * 24%

8% x 24% + 8% * 7% + 18% * 24% = 7%.

C gains over A against:
- ♠Qxx onside with hearts 4-2: 18% * 48%
- ♠Qxxx onside wth hearts 4=2: 16% * 24% (plus a bit for vacant places)

18% * 48% + 16% * 24% = 12%

So I think C is better than A.