BBO Discussion Forums: Play 6S - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Play 6S

#21 User is offline   gnasher 

  • Andy Bowles
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 11,993
  • Joined: 2007-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:London, UK

Posted 2012-April-15, 01:39

View PostPhil, on 2012-April-12, 14:35, said:

A.
...
The ♠Q drops doubleton (28%)


♠Q doubleton is 48 / 3 = 16%, so you've overestimated the chances for A by about 10%.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
0

#22 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,128
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2012-April-15, 20:32

View Postgnasher, on 2012-April-15, 01:36, said:

A: Top trumps, then hearts
C: Hearts, discarding, then trump finesse

A and C both work when hearts are 3-3 and trumps not 5-1.

A gains over C against:
- ♠Qx offside with hearts 4-2: 8% x 24% (minus a bit for vacant places)
- ♠Qx onside with hearts 5-1: 8% * 7% (minus a bit for vacant places)
- ♠Qxx offside with hearts 2=4: 18% * 24%

8% x 24% + 8% * 7% + 18% * 24% = 7%.

C gains over A against:
- ♠Qxx onside with hearts 4-2: 18% * 48%
- ♠Qxxx onside wth hearts 4=2: 16% * 24% (plus a bit for vacant places)

18% * 48% + 16% * 24% = 12%

So I think C is better than A.

A also gains over C on distributions such as
- ♠Qxxx offside and ♥ 4=2, 5=1, or 6=0: 32% X 24% (minus lots for vacant spaces)
- ♠Q onside and ♥ 4=2 : 1% X 24% (ditto)
- ♠Q offside and ♥ 4-2: 1% X 48%
Guthrie.tech
0
  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

3 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 3 guests, 0 anonymous users