[inquiry]

This is an unusual kind of poll. I am giving you a hand with four lines of play. I want you to pick which one (among these four) you think a world class or high quality expert will choose to play at the table. Then pick the line most likely not to be choosen.

Scoring: IMP

2N 3C
3N 6N
Pass

---

Trick one, H7, king wins, West plays heart Two
Trick two, DQ to DK, DA, D2

There is four lines I want you to consider. The first is the possibility that the Diamond King was played from singleton King, or from K9, K7, or K97.

LINE 1) Lead diamond four, and if WEST plays 2, play D5. This play relies on theory with JT left in dummy, EAST will not cover with king.

LINE 2) Win DJ, if East shows out, duck club and play for a diamond-black suit squeeze on WEST or two black suit squeeze on EAST. This play caters to East having K7 or K9 doubleton and covered out of fear with Ax doubleton or Axx tripleton you might lead low on the second round if he ducks the first round.

LINE 3) Win DJ if WEST has 4D, play for black suit throw in and endplay. Similar idea to line 2.

LINE 4) Cash three hearts to see if you can get distribution clue, saving the potential second round diamond hook until later.

[ack_hh]

Please have a look at the club suit.
North seems to hold a master card.

Furthermore, West cannot play the D2 twice (line 1).

[Flame]

You should delete the letter C there, its look like a queen and oviosuly its not.

[Flame]

Very nice question, i can only try to think whats best and maybe a world class would think the same.
Line 1: is cute, but i wouldnt choose it because of the resson you mentioned at 2, and also because maybe east just covered with no special resson even the he is a WC player or on the other side maybe he covered because he is a WC player and could see the problem it will rise, anyway i think its a bit too much of putting the egges in one basket too early.
Line 3: I dont like this line, or maybe i just dont understand it completly, as i see it this line will only work if west has exaclty 4342, no other option and therfore it seems inferior to line 2.
Line 4: i dont like this, i dont think the heart suit will reveal much, and it will kill some other chances like the squeses.
Line 2: is the one i like the best.
Between the line suggested i like #2 the most, and dislike #3 (because #2 just seems better) but i maybe a world class in such a big turney will not dare to go with line 1 and fell like an idiot when east win the 7. so im voting 2 and 1.
Now may i suggest another line ?
How about ducking a club imidietly before a diamond to the J, we still have enough entries to our hand for 2 diamonds hooks. and if west isnt coming back with a diamond we still have time to take out another 2 clubs , this will give us better look at the hands then playing the hearts. I think this gives better chances then the other lines. (although i didnt work it out till the end)

I now see that i underestimated line 3, it works on more cases then i thought, every time west has 4 spades and atleast 3 hearts, i still think line 2 and 5 are better.

This post has been edited by Flame: 2004-November-05, 00:59

[jtfanclub]

Well, I'm clearly on drugs...

What's wrong with playing 3 rounds of spades, and then a fourth if they split 4-3? That should give me far more information about distribution than playing hearts or clubs, and be less dangerous than hearts (I'd have to play all the hearts to get any information about the suit, and that seems like a bad idea).

[Flame]

jtfanclub, on Nov 5 2004, 02:17 AM, said:

Well, I'm clearly on drugs...

What's wrong with playing 3 rounds of spades, and then a fourth if they split 4-3? That should give me far more information about distribution than playing hearts or clubs, and be less dangerous than hearts (I'd have to play all the hearts to get any information about the suit, and that seems like a bad idea).

The problem is your squeeses chances are much less now that you took spade out of the game, the only squeeze chance left if west having 5 clubs+ 4 diamonds which is very unlikely.

[jtfanclub]

Flame, on Nov 5 2004, 02:26 AM, said:

The problem is your squeeses chances are much less now that you took spade out of the game, the only squeeze chance left if west having 5 clubs+ 4 diamonds which is very unlikely.

Well, let's see.

Suppose East is 2=2=4=5. When I play the third round of spades, the hand would be over if he discarded a diamond, so he discards a club, and I discard a diamond. I then play two more rounds of hearts, and he has to make another discard, and again if he discards a diamond dummy's diamonds are good, so he has to discard another club.

Now I play two rounds of clubs. When West follows both times, I know East's exact distribution. So I play a third round of clubs. East has nothing but diamonds left, dummy has JTx, and I have 8x and the last remaining club. Whichever diamond he leads, I take the remaining tricks.

1-3-4-5 is exactly the same, except he discards a heart on the second spade.

EDITED BELOW:
3-1-4-5 is a simple squeeze. By playing four rounds of spades (discarding a club and a diamond), and then two hearts, and the AK of clubs including the card led back after losing the spade, I have three cards left in my hand: the 8x of diamonds and the 9 of clubs. Dummy has three diamonds: JTx. If East kept three diamonds the club is good, if East kept two diamonds the diamonds are good.

So any time either of them is 5-4 in the minors I have either a squeeze or a throw-in.

[Flame]

Yes exactly what i said you make it only on 5-4 minors, but this is too rare.
The onther lines makes on 4-4 diamond spade or 4-4 diamond club, or 4-4 club spade which are much more common especially after the heart lead, and the K diamond play by east (he wont have 4 diamonds)

[jtfanclub]

Flame, on Nov 5 2004, 03:31 AM, said:

Yes exactly what i said you make it only on 5-4 minors, but this is too rare.
The onther lines makes on 4-4 diamond spade or 4-4 diamond club, or 4-4 club spade which are much more common especially after the heart lead, and the K diamond play by east (he wont have 4 diamonds)

Unfortunately, that isn't the case, for two reasons.

First of all, if you lead a low club, it'll be won by West. If he now leads a diamond, you have to guess on trick 4 whether to duck it around to the 8 (correct if West had four diamonds) or play the ten (correct if the diamonds split and East has the 9). Not much better than playing them on trick 2.

Second of all, it's not true at all that East can't have 4 diamonds to the K9. If he does have that hand, the nine is still a stopper. Playing low doesn't help him, but does help declarer by giving him more information.

Note that while playing three rounds of spades isn't guaranteed to win the contract, it gives you significant odds to make. If one party has 5 spades, play for him to not have the 9 of diamonds. If they split 4-3, by playing 4 rounds of spades and then two rounds of hearts you can generally get an exact count on the majors, which should help at least somewhat.

[Flame]

I said that if west will continue diamonds you will have to guess but thats a bit unlikely.
I think the best thing i can tell you is to think about all this, try to see what distributions you will make by ducking a spade, and what will you make by ducking a club. write them down, then try to calculate what are the chances of those. (no need to be exact, because club is about maybe 10 times better)

[jtfanclub]

Flame, on Nov 5 2004, 04:04 AM, said:

I said that if west will continue diamonds you will have to guess but thats a bit unlikely.

Why?

These are world class players. When you duck the club, it's not going to be hard for them to figure out what you're doing.

It might have been more effective to play a low heart from dummy on trick 1, and then duck a club immediately, saving the diamonds for later. Now it's unclear as to whether you have long clubs and don't plan on taking the diamond finesse, or you're trying for a squeeze play. But once you finesse the diamond and then duck the club, against world class players, you may as well put your hand face up on the table.

At least, that's my exalted opinon of them.


Hmmmm...now that I think about it, that's kind of an open question there. You can't make if the diamond finesse fails, right? There's no double-backwards reverse squeeze that'll let you make it, right?

So why is it necessary to finesse on trick 2? Why not win trick 1 in your hand, and duck a club?

Suppose West wins and leads a diamond. There's no guesswork involved- you can play the Q, and then run the other suits to discover the count. On the other hand, if he leads a heart, you win the king and run the queen through yourself. I can't see any harm in this play.

All right, you experts, tell me why I'm wrong.

[Flame]

A diamond back would not effect the squeese.
One thing is 100% playing spade will decrese by alot the chances of squeese.
But I can give a nice ressoning to your line, giving west heart lead is not from a short suit, if he has 4 spades, then he is unlikely to have 4 diamonds and therefore the S+D squeese is not necssary because diamonds are 3-2. If west doesnt have 4 spades then there wasnt a S+D squeese anyway.
good point it would be stronger if west will turn out to have small 4 spades and not Jxxx because with Jxxx he might lead heart with less hearts playing passive.
Enough for me on this thread atleast for now. gn

[the hog]

Without a doubt best is to duck a C at trick 3

[luke warm]

The_Hog, on Nov 5 2004, 12:54 PM, said:

Without a doubt best is to duck a C at trick 3

i'm glad you said that, i thought it was too early here

[Free]

I can't solve problems where one of the hands has 14 cards, and the C isn't clear if it's ♣Q or not... Plz correct your post