[Hanoi5]

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Spade 8 is led. East follows.

[bluecalm]

It seems impossible to plan whole play now.
I first play J♣ and see what develops. I either need club tricks or somehow 4 diamonds anyway, so it can't hurt.
Probably I will play another club once in dummy and if that holds I can check clubs and plan depending on the break.

[JLOGIC]

Yes, double hook clubs then do some squeezes and fineeses and rhm type stuff.

[RunemPard]

You say "Your partner got you there"...as if it was a mistake...I feel 32-34 HCP and 7 keys definitely belongs there, but, how to make it...

It definitely sits in the worst possible way, with no 8 suit fit even...also a useless J thrown into you AKQ.

You could start with the ♥ and play it for 3/3 split, which may give you a crucial key with 4th card discards, but, you may also want to get more information about possible distribution before committing there.

I stick with the clubs and hope for K & Q to be split among defence...or both on the 2nd play. 75% chance and you will get another trick quickly. You still would also like to see ♥ split 3/3 or Qx.

Any plan seems ok here to me...but setting up the clubs early is crucial and seems to be the best way to have any shot.

[ahydra]

You should see the faces I make when I land in 3NT with only 8 top tricks. Being in 6NT with only 9 would give me a headache for sure...

Clubs with split honours can provide 1 or 2 more, then the diamond finesse / hearts doing something useful / some sort of squeeze (cba to work it out atm) for the twelth. So I'll follow the others in running the CJ first.

ahydra

[Phil]

Nice to know 'which spade' RHO follows with.

Agree with double hooking clubs now. Its not very likely we are making this without a 2nd club trick. The most interesting continuation is when they cover the 1st club and duck the 2nd.

The 'RHM stuff' likely occurs when RHO has the long club.

[HighLow21]

My partner got me there???

Are you suggesting that opening a 4-4-3-2 12 count with both minors and terrible intermediates is a good idea? Because it's not. The South hand is a 12-point pile of garbage.
1. If you DO find a suit fit, you still have 8.5 losers. Minimum opening bids tend to have only SEVEN. If balanced, MAYBE 8, but usually 7.5 at the outside.
2. If you DON'T find a suit fit, your intermediates will be horrendously bad for NT. (As you can see.)
3. Your Jack of spades is doubleton and thus not really worth 1 point.
4. Too many Jacks and Queens. And only 1 of them is reinforcing a higher honor. Isolated J's and Q's aren't worth their usual value.

All that said, I agree that the hand possibly belongs in 6NT, just not played by South. The bidding should be Pass, 2NT, 6NT. Actually, I prefer Pass, 2NT, 4NT, All Pass, because South's hand really just is not at all worth 12 points, and North's 20 is no better than expected. And, the two hands have bad shape.

A few things:
1. It is not your partner's fault that you opened.
2. It is not your partner's fault that your intermediates are horrendous.
3. It is not you partner's fault that you have a poor fit in both minors; move the club honors to the south hand and the chances are much better.
4. It is not your partner's fault there is duplication in spades, although it is a distinct flaw to have 2 or more honors in a suit that does not also include a small card. (Most people don't know this.)
5. It IS your partner's fault that he went to 6NT on a 4-3-3-3 shape. But that said, it should have decent chances opposite 14 HCP and fair opposite 13 HCP. That you have a poor 12 with 4-4-3-2 shape is very unfortunate.

As far as the play, you have 9 on top. Terrible. But not surprising given all of the flaws I've already mentioned. In fact, to be honest, I'm surprised there is any play for 6NT whatsoever. The only reason there's a play for it is that you have all the aces.

You simply MUST find a club honor with RHO. Find out how many club tricks you have first.

(a) If clubs divide 3-3, you STILL need a red suit finesse to make. I'd cash 3 hearts and then take the diamond finesse, combining the J♥ dropping with the Q♦ onside. This is about a 21% chance: 27% of the time, clubs will be 3-3 with at least one club honor onside; the jack of hearts will fall 52% of the time, and when it doesn't, the Q♦ finesse will work half the time. So 27% x (1 - (1 - 52%) x (1 - 50%)) = 27% x 76%, or about 21%.
(b) If clubs do not divide, you have only 10 tricks. You should try for 4 diamond tricks, or 4 hearts and 3 diamond tricks. You now MUST get the diamond finesse to work. Try that first. If it works, cash AK♦. If they divide, you have 12. If they don't, play for 4 heart tricks. This is about a 16% chance: Clubs will be 4-2 or worse with at least one honor onside about 3/4 of 64%, or 48% of the time. Of this, you need (i) Qxx♦ onside (18%) OR (ii) Q♦ not tripleton (32%) AND 4 heart tricks (52%). This is: 48% x [18% + (32% x 52%)] = 48% x (16% + 18%) = 48% x 34% = 16%. (This is all rounded, btw.)

Thus, barring squeezes, I put this contract's chances at about 21% + 16% = 37%. With squeezes, maybe it's 40%. Please feel free to verify my math on this. My gut tells me 40% is too high.

The morals of this story:
1. The south hand is an automatic 1st seat pass in my opinion.
2. The south hand is only worth an invitation to 6NT after partner opens 2NT, and that's only if I'm feeling extremely lucky.
3. The invitation to 6NT should probably be declined by north for the reasons I enumerated earlier.
4. A 4-3-3-3 opposite any 4-4-3-2 with usually not make 6NT with fewer than 34 HCP. That's right: 34. Not 33. These two hands have 32 and I'm amazed that it has as much of a chance as I calculated above. (BTW, with 2 4-3-3-3 hands, 35 HCP sometimes won't even do it!)

[HighLow21]

RunemPard, on 2012-February-29, 05:35, said:

You say "Your partner got you there"...as if it was a mistake...I feel 32-34 HCP and 7 keys definitely belongs there, but, how to make it...

<snip>

See my post above. Yes, keys are important, but so is shape, and 32-33 HCP with these hand shapes will usually go down in 6NT.

[HighLow21]

JLOGIC, on 2012-February-29, 05:10, said:

Yes, double hook clubs then do some squeezes and fineeses and rhm type stuff.

What does RHM mean? Read His Mind?

[Zelandakh]

HighLow21, on 2012-February-29, 09:02, said:

What does RHM mean? Read His Mind?

It means Rainer, generally known for providing definitive answers to difficult cardplay problems.

[HighLow21]

Zelandakh, on 2012-February-29, 09:05, said:

It means Rainer, generally known for providing definitive answers to difficult cardplay problems.

Thanks. It still doesn't make any sense to me.

BTW, I'm going to make an extremely unpopular comment here and say: I love how JLOGIC posts a comment which says, in effect, "Take a double finesse and try to play it like some other guy," including a spelling error and a grammatical error, and it gets positive reputation points when other posts don't. Really? Really. I mean, Really??!

[HighLow21]

ahydra, on 2012-February-29, 08:20, said:

You should see the faces I make when I land in 3NT with only 8 top tricks. Being in 6NT with only 9 would give me a headache for sure...

Clubs with split honours can provide 1 or 2 more, then the diamond finesse / hearts doing something useful / some sort of squeeze (cba to work it out atm) for the twelth. So I'll follow the others in running the CJ first.

ahydra

If you make faces when you only have 8 top tricks in 3NT, you're either (1) not getting to 3NT enough, (2) not confident enough in your play, or (3) both (1) and (2).

[manudude03]

Agree it's obvious to double hook the clubs. The actual layout is very unlucky and think that blaming anyone here is just stupid (responder doesn't always have a 20 count when you open the south hand...). I will likely finesse diamonds if I am unable to safely test the clubs (as Phil says, if they cover the first but duck the second). Otherwise, hearts or clubs will be 3 -3 or I'll have a very likely squeeze.

[RunemPard]

Yes, I also mentioned below that comment about the shape...but this also goes along with the 12 HCP opening with no real value...If partner holds 12 HCP or less you usually expect some kind of shape or a major holding. 1D opening I am expecting a few possibilities...

12+ HCP with 4M+4D or more...
13+ HCP with any kind of balanced shape...
12+ HCP with 5+D...


Which is why I feel that going directly to 6NT from N is reasonable...I would also not be expecting a 12 count with that kind of shape.

[HighLow21]

manudude03, on 2012-February-29, 09:33, said:

Agree it's obvious to double hook the clubs. The actual layout is very unlucky and think that blaming anyone here is just stupid (responder doesn't always have a 20 count when you open the south hand...). I will likely finesse diamonds if I am unable to safely test the clubs (as Phil says, if they cover the first but duck the second). Otherwise, hearts or clubs will be 3 -3 or I'll have a very likely squeeze.

OK, I disagree with literally everything you just said here.
(1) The south hand is a textbook opener only for underinformed disciples of Bergen's Rule of 20. I even bet Bergen himself would pass it.
(2) The actual layout is ANYTHING BUT unlucky, for a number of reasons I've already stated. Actually, all things considered, it's extremely fortunate.
(3) Calling my blame of the opener 'stupid' is offensive and, well, stupid. It is called an "ad hominem" attack, which means that, as a debating strategy, you attack the person making the argument, rather than the argument itself. Very immature, ineffective, arrogant, and in this case, blatantly wrong.
(4) The scenario Phil is referring to is not this one for a number of reasons, and I'd be happy to elucidate them for you. I can think of at least 4 off the top of my head.
(5) Good luck with the last part of your analysis there, chief. Squeezes, as a rule, are unlikely. And, in testing for the 3-3 splits you refer to, you will have only 1 entry back to the South hand. Feel free to explain what squeezes are available to us.

[HighLow21]

RunemPard, on 2012-February-29, 09:45, said:

Yes, I also mentioned below that comment about the shape...but this also goes along with the 12 HCP opening with no real value...If partner holds 12 HCP or less you usually expect some kind of shape or a major holding. 1D opening I am expecting a few possibilities...

12+ HCP with 4M+4D or more...
13+ HCP with any kind of balanced shape...
12+ HCP with 5+D...


Which is why I feel that going directly to 6NT from S is reasonable...I would also not be expecting a 12 count with that kind of shape.

I'm not understanding what you're saying here. Are you saying South should not have opened? If so, I agree completely.

Are you saying South should raise an opening of 2NT to 6NT? I see your point, but I tend to disagree. The south hand has the 2nd worst possible shape, the worst possible intermediates, and 12 points, not 13. As I've said before, 4-3-3-3 opposite 4-4-3-2 is a terrible situation and 33 HCP usually won't cut it.

The fact that these two hands actually have a play for 6NT, and it's not something like a 5% shot, actually kind of blows my mind, all things considered. I can easily construct for you an analogous example with 35 HCP where 6NT is STILL not cold.

[RunemPard]

No...I am basically agreeing with you about the 1♦ opening...I hate it...

The shape...the values...everything...

I am just saying from the 20 HCP point hand...what I would expect partner to hold with a minimum opening.

A 12+ count with 4/4 including a major, a 5 carded ♦, or a 13+ NT deal.

Absolutely not expecting a 12 HCP 2344.

[RunemPard]

Sorry I mean't from North in my post before...that may be the confusion...lol

[RunemPard]

Not to mention one point wasted with a Jx and also a Qxx, which to me, is only worth one point opening. QJx, QT9, more worthy of putting money on...but Qxx? More reasons to pass this hand and see what happens. A round pass is not going to make me lose any sleep...even if we can play a minor with a 9 card fit.

If partner has something to bid on, then you can act...

[HighLow21]

RunemPard, on 2012-February-29, 10:13, said:

Not to mention one point wasted with a Jx and also a Qxx, which to me, is only worth one point opening. QJx, QT9, more worthy of putting money on...but Qxx? More reasons to pass this hand and see what happens. A round pass is not going to make me lose any sleep...even if we can play a minor with a 9 card fit.

If partner has something to bid on, then you can act...

Yeah I mentioned the Jx of spades not pulling its 1 point of weight but felt I'd be overdoing it if I stated the problem with Qxx as well. However, I count Qxx as 2.5 losers, correctly, and that's incorporated in my 8.5 losers count. Plus since partner bid hearts, there's a reason for attributing 2 full points to the Queen. Still, the hand is not an opening bid and I still don't like the opening bid if the J♠ were the Q♠.