[bluecalm]

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Matchpoints, average opps who play 2/4 leads, UDCA (which means 2nd from both Hxx and xxx) and lavinthal discards.
Play:

5♠, 8♠, J♠, K♠
T♠, 3♠, 2♠, 4♠
6♠, 9♠, Q♠, 7♠
A♠, 7♦, 5♣, 2♥
T♥, 3♥, 4♥, 5♥
8♥, A♥, 9♥, 7♥
J♣, A♣, 2♣, 3♣
K♥, 7♣, 2♦, 6♥
Q♥, 6♦, 4♣, J♥

And now the moment of truth has come. We have ♣K ♦Q54 in hand and ♣8 ♦AT3 in dummy and we need to guess diamonds.
I missed it and I wonder what kind of thought process should give me clues here.

[wyman]

Putting on my detective hat:

The lead: LHO led from a 3 card suit; certainly he does not have 5 clubs.

First discard: LHO the lavinthal ♥2, suggesting clubs. This could be the ♣Q but another implication is that he doesn't have ♦KJ, especially since he could spare a high heart spot.
RHO played the ♦7, which we now know was his lowest. This is ostensibly also a club signal, and it was played before LHO's ♥2.

Carding in the side suits: Both gave count in spades and hearts, so I have no reason to distrust their carding. LHO's ♣2 should probably be UD count after the ♥2, but (a) there's really no need at this point to card faithfully, and (b) it's not clear that he's not just giving positive attitude, which he might if the ♣J is a true card.

So far we have LHO = ♠953 ♥752 ♦6 ♣72 + 4 cards

Ok, so I'll trust the ♣J, and assume that LHO has the CQ. Also I think it's unlikely that he pitched the ♣7 and stiffed his Q. So my guess is that LHO has 2 diamonds and 2 clubs remaining. I can totally see something like 953/752/Jxx/Qxxx picking a spade here. It's less attractive to do that from Kxx. But the shape imo is more interesting. Since I think diamonds are 2-2, and I had reason to believe that LHO doesn't have KJ, I think we can't go wrong playing ace and a diamond. If they are 3-1, LHO must have 3, since otherwise he'd have started w 5 clubs. But again, since I don't think he has KJx (recall the ♥2), that would put a stiff honor with RHO, so I'll still play ace and a diamond.

Did I win?

[quiddity]

I don't think East started with 4 diamonds or three diamonds including the jack, else he might have pitched a club instead at trick 4. I also don't think he would have stiffed the king. I would lead the queen of diamonds (intending to duck if West covers and finesse on the next round) to pick up an original xx or Jx with East.

edit: Also, it might have been better psychologically to discard a club from dummy at trick 8 and see one more discard from West before pitching the long diamond.

[Yu18772]

I am not an expert, but that would be my thinking:
W started out with 3:3 in majors, thus with 4:3 in minors, meaning that E started with 2 or 3 diamonds.
E first discard was a ♦, which doesnt make sense if he held an Hxx after the ATxx, so I would play W for both honors - i.e run the Q, and finesse the T.
Yu

[gszes]

if i started with
xxx
xxx
KJxx
xxx

I would lead a low dia vs spade

if i started with
xxx
xxx
Jxxx
xxx

I would avoid a dia and lead a spade

with
xxx
xxx
Kxxx
xxx

a diamond once again vs a spade.

IMO lho is close to broke and was trying to hit p with
spade lead. I find it impossible to believe lho has
whittled themselves down to 3 dia and began life with
Kxxx or KJxx dia. This means even if lho began life with
4 dia Jxxx is the most they had. Rho has the dia K
or lho has reduced to KJ dia stiff with an original
holding of xxx xxx KJx xxxx (with or w/o Q) so rho
has


any 2 dia
any 2 clu

K
xxx

KJx
x

even the hugely unlikely
J
xxx

I would lead a dia to the A and
a dia and be shocked if this
wasn't 100%

[bluecalm]

Quote

Did I win?

Yes.

Quote

I would lead a dia to the A and
a dia and be shocked if this
wasn't 100%

Yeah, I screw that up, I thought LHO started with 3-3-4-Qxx and didn't lead a diamond because of Jxxx. Opponent's hands:

953      J74
752      AJ63
96       KJ87
QT972   J6

Good to have this forum

[Yu18772]

well done gszes

Yu

[wyman]

bluecalm, on 2012-February-15, 05:16, said:

Yes.

I think the biggest thing for me was the ♥2. If this is really a club card, I can't see how low to the ace, low to the queen is wrong.

But I did not see lefty holding a five card club suit.

[bluecalm]

To be honest I didn't appreciate 2♥ as lavinthal during the hand. I thought they are just discarding cards they don't need Only later I realized it showed club values (it was Polish tourney and in Poland everybody play lavinthal discards vs NT).

So now it seems I should edit the topic of this thread to: "simple technical question" instead of hand reading

[wyman]

Even then, I think I'd play low to the ace.

I am not playing LHO for 5 clubs, so either the diamonds are 2-2 or 3-1, stiff on the right. And I think LHO would have led a diamond from the K, so I'll cater to stiff K on the right.

This time I would have won for the wrong reasons