[S2000magic]

RHO deals. Opponents are playing 2/1, 1430 w/ 5NT = quantitative kings (6♣ = 0, 6♦ = 1, . . . .)

1♠ - P - 2♦ - P
2♠ - P - 3♦ - P
3♥ - P - 4♠ - P
4NT - P - 5♠ - P
5NT - P - 6♦ - P
6♠ - P - P - P

You hold:

♠ 3 2
♥ Q J 9 3
♦ J 2
♣ K J 9 5 3

What's your lead?

If the opponents had ended in 7♠, what would you lead?

[whereagles]

If RHO's bidding can be trusted, a heart seems normal. If he's the sort of person who bid 5NT just to spin the wheel, I might lead a club.

[S2000magic]

whereagles, on 2012-February-16, 08:57, said:

If RHO's bidding can be trusted, a heart seems normal. If he's the sort of person who bid 5NT just to spin the wheel, I might lead a club.

As I was RHO, I can assure you that RHO's bidding can be trusted. No wheel-spinning.

[Zelandakh]

This looks strangely familiar. At least they are not in 7NT! Against a spade contract we should obviously be leading a diamond.

[S2000magic]

Zelandakh, on 2012-February-16, 09:58, said:

This looks strangely familiar. At least they are not in 7NT! Against a spade contract we should obviously be leading a diamond.

Good eye! I should have posted this under a pseudonym.

That was my contention at the table, and I think that one needn't appeal to the actual holdings to justify it.

[mikeh]

S2000magic, on 2012-February-16, 10:03, said:

Good eye! I should have posted this under a pseudonym.

That was my contention at the table, and I think that one needn't appeal to the actual holdings to justify it.

One needn't appeal to the actual hand to come up with an argument for a diamond lead, but imo that argument is weak, and I suspect the majority of players would ultimately opt for a rounded suit lead. The diamond lead requires a combination of a solid suit, not shown in the auction, no side entries to dummy, and precisely a stiff diamond in declarer's hand. With any other layout, all the diamond lead does is to waste a tempo.

As it is, what good does a diamond lead do? Surely nobody goes down in 6♠ after that lead?

[S2000magic]

mikeh, on 2012-February-16, 10:21, said:

One needn't appeal to the actual hand to come up with an argument for a diamond lead, but imo that argument is weak, and I suspect the majority of players would ultimately opt for a rounded suit lead. The diamond lead requires a combination of a solid suit, not shown in the auction, no side entries to dummy, and precisely a stiff diamond in declarer's hand. With any other layout, all the diamond lead does is to waste a tempo.

As it is, what good does a diamond lead do? Surely nobody goes down in 6♠ after that lead?

I think that the stiff diamond is pretty clear from the use of 1430 and the lack of a diamond raise. That the diamonds are solid may not necessarily hold, but that declarer can establish them with one or (less likely) two ruffs is a solid inference, I believe.

It's true that no lead sets 6♠ - declarer can pull two rounds of trumps and play three top diamonds, with the long diamond and the long trump in the same defender's hand - but a diamond is the only lead to set 6♠ if declarer doesn't have the ♥K, for example, and it will set 7♠ on the actual hand. If dummy has a side entry, nothing stops 6♠ or 7♠, so we should ignore that possibility.

[mikeh]

S2000magic, on 2012-February-16, 10:36, said:

I think that the stiff diamond is pretty clear from the use of 1430 and the lack of a diamond raise. That the diamonds are solid may not necessarily hold, but that declarer can establish them with one or (less likely) two ruffs is a solid inference, I believe.

It's true that no lead sets 6♠ - declarer can pull two rounds of trumps and play three top diamonds, with the long diamond and the long trump in the same defender's hand - but a diamond is the only lead to set 6♠ if declarer doesn't have the ♥K, for example, and it will set 7♠ on the actual hand. If dummy has a side entry, nothing stops 6♠ or 7♠, so we should ignore that possibility.

I admit that I was thinking more of winning the first diamond, cashing the second, then A♥, club ruff, ♥K, club A, club ruff, and then a red card off dummy, ruffing with a spot...if we are overruffed, we have the rest unless the ruff was with the stiff 10...and so on.


As for the inferences from the bidding.....the bidding looks odd to me...I don't understand why one should infer a stiff diamond on such an auction. I don't understand 4♠, as one example. Even if 2♠ promised a 6 card suit, which it doesn't for many (including me....how would you bid KJ109x AKx x Qxxx?), the N hand is too good and too diamond oriented to jump to 4♠.

In addition, after the 5N bid, I think N should be bidding 7♦. Try beating that.

I aprreciate that you were one of the bidders so maybe you don't want to hear criticism of the auction, but you are arguing that the correct lead was disclosed by the auction. I am arguing that if there is one thing we can safely infer from the auction, it is that this layout can't exist! North knows that his partner has at least one diamond, and he is looking at AKQ10xxx in the suit, and knows that his side has ALL the keycards for spades, and he doesn't bid grand???

I do truly think that you are allowing your knowledge of the actual layout to influence your thinking here.

[S2000magic]

mikeh, on 2012-February-16, 10:51, said:

In addition, after the 5N bid, I think N should be bidding 7♦. Try beating that.

Interestingly, that's exactly what I told my partner. She was skeptical, but after discussion admitted that it made sense.

mikeh, on 2012-February-16, 10:51, said:

I appreciate that you were one of the bidders so maybe you don't want to hear criticism of the auction . . .

Quite the contrary: good criticism helps me learn; I'm all for it.

mikeh, on 2012-February-16, 10:51, said:

. . . you are arguing that the correct lead was disclosed by the auction. I am arguing that if there is one thing we can safely infer from the auction, it is that this layout can't exist! North knows that his partner has at least one diamond, and he is looking at AKQ10xxx in the suit, and knows that his side has ALL the keycards for spades, and he doesn't bid grand???

Partner is admittedly a timid bidder (note the 3♦, not 4♦). She's a good player and will grow out of it.

mikeh, on 2012-February-16, 10:51, said:

I do truly think that you are allowing your knowledge of the actual layout to influence your thinking here.

Perhaps, but I doubt it.

With luck, one day I'll be leading after such a auction, and we'll put it to the test.