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lead problem

#1 User is offline   Tomi2 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 06:32

you are 1st hand, teams, red-red

p - p - 2 - p
p - 3 - p - 3
p - 4 - X - ppp

you hold

xx
aqxx
xxx
kxxx

partner rarely doubles normal contracts

your ideas?
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#2 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 06:45

Looks like I have quite a few tricks in hand. I think just leading partner's spades seems like a good prospect.
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#3 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 06:48

This should be a Lightner I think. From my hand Lightner seems highly unlikely. I'm leading partner's suit.
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#4 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 07:20

I think that partner has strong diamonds.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#5 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 07:25

Partner asked for an unusual lead, most often dummies suit.

I will lead one, I have no reason to overrule him.
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#6 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 07:48

Partner doubled because 2 passed hands reached game and trump are breaking badly.Tricks in are not running anywhere, but may go on . So for me.

Yu Posted Image



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#7 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 07:57

What is our understanding about a 3rd seat vulnerable 2 opening?
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#8 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:15

View PostYu18772, on 2012-February-15, 07:48, said:

Partner doubled because 2 passed hands reached game and trump are breaking badly.

Yu Posted Image

Declarer is not a passed hand :rolleyes:

yea he is limited. but not a passed hand.
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#9 User is offline   Tomi2 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:27

View Postbillw55, on 2012-February-15, 07:57, said:

What is our understanding about a 3rd seat vulnerable 2 opening?


can be quite strong but sees no game with a random 11 bal count. on a bad day qjtxxxx in spades and nothing outside, but probably not this board
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#10 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:29

It's an obvious Lightner double. Usually that would be because he has a void, but that's unlikely here. Perhaps he has something like Q10xxxx x AQ xxxx and wants us to take two diamonds, a black ace and a ruff. Or perhaps he has a singleton ace of diamonds.

Anyway, I lead a diamond.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#11 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:48

View Postgwnn, on 2012-February-15, 08:15, said:

Declarer is not a passed hand :rolleyes:

yea he is limited. but not a passed hand.


Hmm...true but he is pretty limited. The hearts are also likely 4441 (otherwise he might bid 3 directly?), so I dont think that partner is void of any suit.
Still I control the trump suit, so don't think that any defensive tricks except spades might go away even if declare holds AKQ.
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#12 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 09:19

Lowest diamond.

The double must be a Lightner double. Partner cannot know that I have as much as I do, so he took a shot that a diamond lead would be needed to have a chance to beat 4. For all that partner knows, my RHO could have a strong hand with a penalty double of 2. This doesn't appear to be the case, but if the double is not Lightner, it is highly speculative, as he cannot count on me for anything significant. In any event, he should be able to stand a diamond lead.

As for the choice of diamond, I probably want a club returned, so I lead my lowest diamond.
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#13 User is offline   Tomi2 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 10:12

View PostYu18772, on 2012-February-15, 08:48, said:

Hmm...true but he is pretty limited. The hearts are also likely 4441 (otherwise he might bid 3 directly?), so I dont think that partner is void of any suit.
Still I control the trump suit, so don't think that any defensive tricks except spades might go away even if declare holds AKQ.
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you expect the declarer to run out of 3 dia to 3hearts on 4 cards and the balancer to bid like this with 4 harts and lonnger dias? I would overthink this...
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#14 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 10:24

There's a really small chance of a club ruff here, but enough of one that I'll consider it. And then I'll lead a diamond.
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#15 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 11:19

View PostTomi2, on 2012-February-15, 10:12, said:

you expect the declarer to run out of 3 dia to 3hearts on 4 cards and the balancer to bid like this with 4 harts and lonnger dias? I would overthink this...


I dont think declarer is running anywhere, I think he has a pretty good hand that had nothing to bid over 2, otherwise he really should pass 3. If you usually try to "save" partner from his suit without values - I would rethink that....
Declarer can withstand 4 from partner (in case 3 gets doubled for example). If declarer had a good hand and 5 card I would expect him to bid 3 the previous round, so it seems like he has something like 3:4:2:4 with about 12-15, and the balancer probably has only 2 clubs or the hearts are really bad so he decided to bid his good and long suit rather than double.
Posted Image Yu
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#16 User is offline   Tomi2 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 11:47

View PostYu18772, on 2012-February-15, 11:19, said:

I dont think declarer is running anywhere, I think he has a pretty good hand that had nothing to bid over 2, otherwise he really should pass 3. If you usually try to "save" partner from his suit without values - I would rethink that....
Declarer can withstand 4 from partner (in case 3 gets doubled for example). If declarer had a good hand and 5 card I would expect him to bid 3 the previous round, so it seems like he has something like 3:4:2:4 with about 12-15, and the balancer probably has only 2 clubs or the hearts are really bad so he decided to bid his good and long suit rather than double.
Posted Image Yu


I think your style is not playable... how can reopener know if partner wants to force to game and has 4 hearts but points or real hearts but not enough poits? 4-2 fits dont play well...

balancer could have reopened either with a double and correct partners 3 clubs to 3 diamonds or bid 2nt also correcting... since he IS a passed hand and truly limited - both actions can't be strong!

Declarer had 5 or more hearts and a hand that is too weak to act directly over 2 spades facing a passed hand, balancer has found some maximum to raise partners encouraging but not forcing natural 3 heart bid here
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#17 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 12:44

View PostTomi2, on 2012-February-15, 11:47, said:

I think your style is not playable... how can reopener know if partner wants to force to game and has 4 hearts but points or real hearts but not enough poits? 4-2 fits dont play well...

balancer could have reopened either with a double and correct partners 3 clubs to 3 diamonds or bid 2nt also correcting... since he IS a passed hand and truly limited - both actions can't be strong!

Declarer had 5 or more hearts and a hand that is too weak to act directly over 2 spades facing a passed hand, balancer has found some maximum to raise partners encouraging but not forcing natural 3 heart bid here


So you think that a hand that was not strong enough to act over 2 given a 5-6 card suit, is good enough to effectively force a balancing passed hand to a 4 level vulnerable (just in case balancer actually has diamonds and single for example) ?
This seems to me much less playable.....it is like opening insufficient hands in 4th seat or preempting over a preempt....my favorite style of opponents bidding.
Yu Posted Image
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"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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#18 User is offline   Tomi2 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 16:50

View PostYu18772, on 2012-February-15, 12:44, said:

So you think that a hand that was not strong enough to act over 2 given a 5-6 card suit, is good enough to effectively force a balancing passed hand to a 4 level vulnerable (just in case balancer actually has diamonds and single for example) ?
This seems to me much less playable.....it is like opening insufficient hands in 4th seat or preempting over a preempt....my favorite style of opponents bidding.
Yu Posted Image


do you overcall every 12/13 hcp with 5 hearts over 2 spades on 3rd level vulnerable?

I think passing and then bidding 3 hearts leaves partner more space to pass 3 hearts than bidding directly, where he will rise you with most 8 counts.

auctually he had aqx - j98xxx - qx - qj

this does not look like a 3 heart bid directly but worth a try in the 2nd round once he knows partner has close to an opening

I think if he overcalled this directly he would have been in many bad games while passing and then 3 hearts makes partner pass on a non fitting hand and raise with some heart fit - that is what he needs...
so I disagree to your statement, that my way and my oponents way to bid 3 hearts effectively forces you to games - its the other way round...

to solve this problems: one need to cash the club tricks, opener has kjtxxx - / - xxx - Atxx and had some fear that a passive defense will let the contract make

dummy had xx - ktx - akjxx - xxx

on a dia or spade lead one club goes on the 3rd dia and the other on the 4th

only one guy I asked solved this problem, his idea was: lead the ace of hearts(!!) and watch the dummy, I liked this idea and try to find out, if its possible to find this lead - it seems very hard
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#19 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 17:02

I don't think it's that hard.
We have 3 tricks. If partner has diamond trick nothing will save declarer. If he hasn't we better cash ours before they go away on diamonds.
Now we need to decide which ace to lead. Is it possible that partner's KQs tricks disappear on clubs if we lead A[clubs} ? It could be so, so A looks better.

Btw, some good card sense from partner doubling it. I am impressed.
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#20 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2012-February-16, 00:58

I agree with Yu about the double.

Yes 3 bidder is not coming from pass and probably has apprx an opener, but it is obvious they are playing a borderline game and pd probably knows this plus wants us not to lead , but if pd is not a maniac the lead shdnt matter imo.

Pd has short and short too ? If he has honours, where are they going ? I'd probably lead or

EDIT: I also like Bluecalm's A idea. As a matter of fact probably the best lead. We may lose tempo for this lead but better than shooting in the dark.
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