[Quartic]

You get to 3NT on a simple auction:

---

East leads the ♠9, taken by your Q; what's your plan?

[gnasher]

Cash the clubs and see what they discard.

[Yu18772]

gnasher, on 2011-November-26, 11:11, said:

Cash the clubs and see what they discard.

+1

[rhm]

gnasher, on 2011-November-26, 11:11, said:

Cash the clubs and see what they discard.

Amazingly clever.
I guess you will try hearts next whatever they discard.
But even assuming it is MP what is interesting about this problem and what has it to do in this forum?

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

Quote

I guess you will try hearts next whatever they discard.

Not necessarily. I may take a diamond finesse.

[AlexJonson]

rhm, on 2011-November-27, 03:37, said:

Amazingly clever.
I guess you will try hearts next whatever they discard.
But even assuming it is MP what is interesting about this problem and what has it to do in this forum?

Rainer Herrmann

We might wonder if a lot of people are in 6NT, and wonder a little bit about the lead and how normal it might be.

But I can't see what I can do about it, so I would try clubs and hearts as you imply.

[rhm]

gnasher, on 2011-November-27, 04:09, said:

Not necessarily. I may take a diamond finesse.

Come on, going down when you had 10 and might have 12 tricks on top?
I guess you will have to go to hand after the ♣ with a ♥ if you want to take the ♦ finesse prematurely.
Which five discards on the clubs might induce you to play for the ♦ finesse at trick eight?

Rainer Herrmann

[Fluffy]

There is no chance of going down when there are only 3 spades left, and diamond finese can be marked depending on who opponents are.

[gnasher]

At matchpoints of course I would take an early diamond finesse if I thought it was right. For example, if LHO started with four clubs and also appeared to have five spades, I would be inclined to take a diamond finesse.

I'm not going to speculate about the exact play when I don't even know what their cards at trick one meant, and in any case it's not just a question of what they discard: it matters who they are and how quickly they make their discards.

[Quartic]

West has 2 clubs, East 3. I don't remember what carding this pair played, but East is likely to discard diamonds, and West spades.

If you test hearts, you'll find West with a doubleton.

[rhm]

Fluffy, on 2011-November-27, 05:18, said:

There is no chance of going down when there are only 3 spades left, and diamond finese can be marked depending on who opponents are.

It helps to read first before joining a discussion.
This was not the point and only true if you finesse ♦ after you played all top ♥s.
When I claimed you will play ♥s after ♣s, Gnasher claimed he might finesse before he plays ♥s, which, if the ♦ finesse succeeds, might give him 12 or 13 tricks even if ♥s do not break because he can repeat the ♦ finesse and possibly finally squeeze East between ♦ and the ♠A .
But of course you risk the contract with little or no indication whether the ♦ finesse works or not.
You are right that taking the ♦ finesse after cashing the the ♥ does not risk the contract. If the ♦ finesse wins, you can consider to throw East in with the remaining ♠ honor to get 3 ♦ tricks for a total of 12 tricks.

So Gnasher's idea gains only if

- ♥ do not break, which he does not know
- ♦ finesse works and East has either no ♠ ace (12 tricks) or the ♠ ace and four or more ♦ (13 tricks)

This will give him a top about 25% of the time while giving him a zero 50% of the time.

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

Rainer, do you ever actually play face-to-face bridge? If I take an early diamond finesse, it will because I expect it to win sufficiently often to improve my matchpoint expectancy. That is, I will use my card-reading skills, such as they are, to obtain information additional to the a priori probabilities.

[phil_20686]

I am somewhat confused. There are certainly pitches that would persaude me to take a diamond finesse vs average or unknown players. Say lho had two clubs and pitched 3 spades including the ten. Now it looks like lho is holding onto four hearts and possibly KTx diamonds. Or if LHO had one club and pitched three spades and a diamond including the spade T.

In these cases taking the finesse no longer damages ones chances of making the contract, and could easily be better. Against v good players it could be a mirage perpetrated when hearts are 3-3 all along.

[CSGibson]

phil_20686, on 2011-November-27, 10:22, said:

I am somewhat confused. There are certainly pitches that would persaude me to take a diamond finesse vs average or unknown players. Say lho had two clubs and pitched 3 spades including the ten. Now it looks like lho is holding onto four hearts and possibly KTx diamonds. Or if LHO had one club and pitched three spades and a diamond including the spade T.

In these cases taking the finesse no longer damages ones chances of making the contract, and could easily be better. Against v good players it could be a mirage perpetrated when hearts are 3-3 all along.

And I assume that Andy and others might also factor in the opponents skill with the line of play.

C'mon people. This is relatively straightforward. Cash the clubs, see if you think you have a strong enough read on the opponents to warrant bending the odds in favor of an early diamond finesse is a reasonable answer at matchpoints, and an answer which acknowledges that a priori line of play might be different.