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Finesse or drop?

#1 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 10:30

You find yourself in a tenuous 6 contract.

Dummy: AT8, T5, K7, QJ8753

Hand: KQ62, AKQ96, Q, AT6

Lead is club 4, Q, K, A

Now what? I think the hand just comes down to picking up the spades, what's the right way to play it?
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#2 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 11:11

Without any other information, I would play A and then K, in case the J falls. If the J does not fall, I would continue with the Q.
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#3 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 11:32

I don't pretend to be a great declarer, but are we asking whether exactly Jack 4th in front of the ten is more likely than any of the distributions where ACE and King works?
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#4 User is offline   AlexJonson 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 11:35

K and then A (if no marked finesse), then Q(if J hasn't shown)
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#5 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 11:43

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-November-16, 11:32, said:

I don't pretend to be a great declarer, but are we asking whether exactly Jack 4th in front of the ten is more likely than any of the distributions where ACE and King works?


Yes, I suppose I could instead ask for the best way to pick up the trump suit for no losers (as that's necessary to make the slam, and all that's necessary).
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#6 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 11:57

View PostBunnyGo, on 2011-November-16, 11:43, said:

Yes, I suppose I could instead ask for the best way to pick up the trump suit for no losers (as that's necessary to make the slam, and all that's necessary).

O.K., then I should have said I think exactly jack 4th onside is less likely than 3-3 spades, even before adding Jack dropping on the other side. I could be wrong. Other cases where the finesse of the ten works break even when we play one honor from each hand.
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#7 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 13:07

Plus if you play for 3-3 spades and miss, you have the added chance of RHO 4=3=3=3.
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#8 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 13:13

View Postwyman, on 2011-November-16, 13:07, said:

Plus if you play for 3-3 spades and miss, you have the added chance of RHO 4=3=3=3.

I wonder about that one. LHO would have ten reds and it might be hard to bring in the hearts since we can't get back to finish the clubs.
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#9 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 13:16

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-November-16, 13:13, said:

I wonder about that one. LHO would have ten reds and it might be hard to bring in the hearts since we can't get back to finish the clubs.


?

AKQ of spades, now 10, J 8 of clubs, pitching a diamond. RHO can ruff or not. Hearts are breaking by design so wtp?
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#10 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 13:20

No, I meant the likelihood of East being 4X3 or JX in hearts given his partner has ten reds...but it is a chance to be calculated into the odds of the two different spade plays, and a little bit more in favor of the drop in trumps.
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#11 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-November-16, 13:24

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-November-16, 13:20, said:

No, I meant the likelihood of East being 4X3 or JX in hearts given his partner has ten reds...but it is a chance to be calculated into the odds of the two different spade plays.


Oh for sure it's slim and not worth (seriously) considering.
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other. -- Hamman, re: Wolff
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#12 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 06:02

If there is no other information then we all know what the best way to play the trump suit is.

But we do have extra information, the club lead looks a lot like a singleton!

If we finesse spades, then we win against Jxxx-xx onside but lose against xxx-Jxx offside. Note that that's exactly equally many holdings in the spade suit. What's more likely, a given 4-2 spade split or a given 3-3 spade split? www.rpbridge.net tells us that each specific 4-2 split has 1.9903% chance and each specific 3-3 split has 1.7691% chance. So, we should finesse in spades!

Or should we? A defender holding Jxxx of trumps would be much less inclined to lead a singleton than a defender holding xxx. Jxxx is often a trump trick (especially when the opponents are in a 4-3 fit!). So I think we should still play for the drop.


By the way, there are more issues on this hand. For example, a defender would less likely lead a singleton against a slam holding an ace, especially after a keycards auction. After all, if they hold an ace, their partner cannot hold an ace, and leading a singleton is less likely to gain and can easily give away the layout. So maybe we should also place the ace of diamonds with west, which makes the empty spaces 12-9, which would make the finesse even more the percentage play! (In this case 21.9% vs 17.0%.) Or maybe west has xxx of clubs and is trying to give his partner a ruff.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#13 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 06:06

Sorry, since Bunny said the hand comes down to picking up the spades I didn't look at chances for making this when you misguess spades.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#14 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 06:17

han my first inclination was that all i know about this hand is that clubs are obv 2-2 given that RHO covered. No one is covering the Q with K92. Of course, depends how bad your RHO is.
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#15 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 06:46

View Postwyman, on 2011-November-16, 13:07, said:

Plus if you play for 3-3 spades and miss, you have the added chance of RHO 4=3=3=3.


I hadn't considered this, very cute.


View Posthan, on 2011-November-17, 06:02, said:


If we finesse spades, then we win against Jxxx-xx onside but lose against xxx-Jxx offside. Note that that's exactly equally many holdings in the spade suit. What's more likely, a given 4-2 spade split or a given 3-3 spade split? www.rpbridge.net tells us that each specific 4-2 split has 1.9903% chance and each specific 3-3 split has 1.7691% chance. So, we should finesse in spades!


This was my thought process. Sadly spades were 3=3 with Jxx offsides.


View Posthan, on 2011-November-17, 06:06, said:

Sorry, since Bunny said the hand comes down to picking up the spades I didn't look at chances for making this when you misguess spades.


Sorry...hadn't considered the 4=3=3=3 situation. I thought the whole thing came down to picking up the trump suit.
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#16 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 07:33

View PostJLOGIC, on 2011-November-17, 06:17, said:

han my first inclination was that all i know about this hand is that clubs are obv 2-2 given that RHO covered. No one is covering the Q with K92. Of course, depends how bad your RHO is.


My (present) inability to make inferences like this is one of many reasons I am not (presently) good at bridge. Very nice.
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

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#17 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 08:02

View Postwyman, on 2011-November-17, 07:33, said:

My (present) inability to make inferences like this is one of many reasons I am not (presently) good at bridge. Very nice.


Meh, this one is just pattern recognition/experience. As you play often against non-terrible opps you will just assume when the Q is covered in a spot like this it is Kx, it's not like I actually thought about it it's just a standard pattern if you play enough hands to see it many times.
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#18 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 08:38

View PostBunnyGo, on 2011-November-17, 06:46, said:

This was my thought process. Sadly spades were 3=3 with Jxx offsides.


FWIW I think the inference that LHO wouldn't lead a singleton as often holding Jxxx is bigger than these marginal probability arguments.

I like the point about clubs being 2-2 because RHO covered, but, assuming that dummy has shown clubs, I don't see LHO leading from a doubleton very often.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#19 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 17:50

on all your posts here han I miss you talking about east having Jx, did I overlook something?
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#20 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2011-November-18, 07:00

I think I did!
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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