Posted 2011-November-03, 11:02
I don't think we can ever find out what we need to be able to bid slam 'knowing' that it is cold or close to cold. We can assume decent clubs, so the key to the hand is his diamond holding. We just can't find out, imo. xx is good, especially if he has 6 clubs. xxx is terrible, but then he may, for example, have Qx xxx xxx KQxxx and still prevail.
All told, it seems to me that he is more likely to have a hand that affords a good-to-excellent play for 12 tricks than he is to have a hand on which slam is an underdog.
My natural instincts tend towards finding reasons NOT to bid, but I am trying to overcome that and my vote for 6♣ is part of that effort.
One can conjure up a hand on which grand has play, but I don't know that we could ever bid it with confidence and trying for it seems to be risking confusion and a poor result for little reason. Reaching a small slam will be a good result in almost any field even if grand makes.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari