To compare the three lines:
Playing a spade loses when LHO has the heart ace. RHO wins, sets up diamonds, and we take only 2+0+2+4. It always wins when LHO has the spade ace, even when he ducks. This line also works when East has both aces. Assume that the
♠Q holds. The
♥K follows, which RHO cannot duck (we play to the
♥Q then play to the
♠K if LHO shows out). However, he cannot threaten us in any suit, so we will have time to take 2+2+1+4 (or 1+2+2+4 if they setup diamonds, even with LHO having the spade ace).
Playing a heart from hand loses to x-AT9x or void-AT9xx or H-AHxx (assuming no guess) when LHO has the space ace: they setup diamonds and we take only 0+2+2+4. If RHO has both aces, he must duck. Now we should play the
♠K, which almost guarantees the contract. (If it loses, set up the heart unless they give you the ninth in
♦, if it wins play a heart to Q then a
♠ etc). The only danger is AT9x in LHO, with the heart return setting up the fifth defensive trick. We still make if he started with 1462, though.
Crossing to dummy in
♣ to play to the
♥Q is the most complex scenario. We always make if LHO wins, since we get 2+2+1+4. If LHO ducks, we also make:
♠Q wins (if it loses, we get 2+1+2+4 with the
♠K as an entry to the fourth
♣ or we have time to set up the second
♥ for 2+2+1+4) then a
♥ to the K wins. The only problem is when RHO starts with AT9x or AHxx. If
♥Q,
♠Q,
♥K reveals x-AT9x, we're down when RHO has the
♠A, since he can setup the
♥ before playing a
♦ through later. If he doesn't have the
♠A, we always make: if he wins the second
♥ to return a
♥ (essential to remove dummy's entry) we play two
♣ then a
♠ to the K. Best defense is to duck the
♥. However, the hand plays itself: cash both
♣ and advance the
♠J. LHO must duck, else we have the entry to table. When he wins the third
♠, he is endplayed; we take 2+2+2+3.
More interesting is a H-AHxx division. Now RHO does not have the option of setting up a
♥ trick, so he must duck the second
♥. We are at this position:
We now play a
♠ to the J. If RHO has the
♠A, he must duck; if he wins, playing a
♦ through cuts the defense off from the
♦A (nine, maybe ten tricks if cashed) when LHO plays a third spade to knock the entry out of dummy (so we make on a stepping stone if 4162 but overtaking if 3163), whereas playing a
♠ will reveal LHO's count as the third round of
♣ is led from hand (endplay if 2164 by overtaking, cash if 3163, overtake and endplay either opponent in diamonds if 4162). LHO must also duck. Now we play
♣, overtaking if LHO follows to the third
♣, otherwise we have to guess whether to play a
♠ if LHO has the ace or a
♦ if RHO has the ace. Sometimes we will go down, but this is rare.
Cliffs:
♣ to dummy,
♥ to Q, followed by
♠Q, then
♥K if those all hold only loses to x-AT9x with RHO holding
♠A or singleton T/9-AT/9xx with a misguess on who holds the
♠A when LHO is 4162. This is the best line unless I've missed something. Interesting problem.