[han]

How do you play this 6H contract after a diamond lead?

AQxxx
763
QJx
Q8

-
AQJ982
AK
AJ109x

[y66]

I'll play for CK onside and hearts 2-2 or singleton HK or singleton HT.

DA HA DK HQ then I think I can get to dummy one way or another to pitch 2 clubs then CQ.

[hatchett]

The alternative is ♣ to the 8 forcing a entry in ♣s, and take a ♥ finesse.
If successful we have to view whether to try and cross to table with a ♣ ruff to take a second heart finesse.

if we take a ♣ruff we make with ♣ 3-3 and the ♥ finesse right (♥not 4-0)
♣ 4-2 and the doubleton hand holding ♥ xx,or T or the hand with three ♥ holding 4♣s.

Y66's line is C finesse (50%) combines with 65% chance in ♥ which is 32.5% line

the above line is ♣ 3-3 36% plus 45% chance in ♥ 16%
4 clubs on our right with 3 ♥ to K on our right 5%
any 4-2 clubs with ♥ K stiff on our right (1/8 of 48%) 6%
4 clubs on our right with KT hearts onside. 1.5%

so yes I agree y66's line looks better

[karlson]

Look very upset and yell at partner "we play keycard you know" (or perhaps "how can you cuebid with no heart honor?") then play the ♥Q from your hand.

I don't see anything better than y66's line.

[barryallen]

I am not sure there is hardly anything in this either way, going for an entry on table via ♣ or ♥. It's always favourite that the ♥ are going to break 3-1, but that is offset by dropping the bare ♥K. Even with the ♣ not behaving themselves, you can discard 2 on the A♠ and the third diamond?

Thinking about this further, you can never be stopped form having the ♥ finesse from being an option, whereas you can be stopped from having the ♣ finesse as being an option. So I will go for the ♣ entry to table, looking for the ♥ finesse.

[han]

There is a third line.

[gnasher]

♦AK, then ♥Q.

That gets us an entry on almost all 2-2 and 3-1 breaks. The only time we don't is if RHO wins the king and plays back a low one, and the ten has not appeared, and we misguess. If we go with the odds, we'll play for 10x-Kx, so we'll fail to get to dummy only if it's x=K10x.

[karlson]

So gnasher's line wins over cashing the ♥A when the hearts are KTx=x and the club is onside. On the other hand cashing ♥A wins when the ♥K is singleton on either side and the club is offside. Seems like basically a wash from a technical standpoint? Playing the ♥Q does seem to have better chances of inducing misdefense.

[gnasher]

I gain slightly from vacant-spaces considerations: when hearts are K10x=x, the club finesse will be right 12/22 of the time

Against that, my line loses when LHO is 2-2 or 3=2 in the reds and RHO has ♥K - when RHO plays back a diamond I'll discard a club and go down. I suspect that makes ♥A a better play.

[han]

Yes that's also what I was thinking. To know the best answer you probably need to know which diamond was led.