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1♠=Precision 5+, 10-15 points
2N = 4-card raise to 3+
3♣ = non-minimum(GF)
3♦ = relay
3N = no shortage, or second suit he wants to show
4N = RKCB
5D = 0 or 3 key cards.
Your lead?
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Opening lead vs slam (imps)
#1
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Posted 2011-May-03, 04:26
1♠=Precision 5+, 10-15 points
2N = 4-card raise to 3+
3♣ = non-minimum(GF)
3♦ = relay
3N = no shortage, or second suit he wants to show
4N = RKCB
5D = 0 or 3 key cards.
Your lead?
#2
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Posted 2011-May-03, 05:37
I've given away lots of contracts but I think I'll lead a club.
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#3
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Posted 2011-May-03, 07:06
it looks like opponents have 32/33 balanced or more, partner is broke, our best hope is to wait for slow tricks to come along ♥A. There is a small chance has a queen also.
If that queen is in spades a trump lead is a big disaster, I dunno what lead is best, I voted for small diamond, but upon writing this I think a spade is the safest lead.
If that queen is in spades a trump lead is a big disaster, I dunno what lead is best, I voted for small diamond, but upon writing this I think a spade is the safest lead.
#4
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Posted 2011-May-03, 07:16
Fluffy, on 2011-May-03, 07:06, said:
it looks like opponents have 32/33 balanced or more, partner is broke, our best hope is to wait for slow tricks to come along ♥A. There is a small chance has a queen also.
If that queen is in spades a trump lead is a big disaster, I dunno what lead is best, I voted for small diamond, but upon writing this I think a spade is the safest lead.
If that queen is in spades a trump lead is a big disaster, I dunno what lead is best, I voted for small diamond, but upon writing this I think a spade is the safest lead.
I like the spade lead. I don't think they are missing the queen after bidding RKCB and having the space to ask for it. Second choice small diamond.
I don't think the opponents have more than 33 hcp btw (and we will have to hope partner has ♥J to beat this).
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#5
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Posted 2011-May-03, 07:53
cherdano, on 2011-May-03, 07:16, said:
I like the spade lead. I don't think they are missing the queen after bidding RKCB and having the space to ask for it.
You may be right that this is what people actually do, but it doesn't sound like very good bridge.
If all they're missing is ♠Q plus one key card, they should bid slam. If the missing keycard is ♠K, that makes the slam 76%, less the risk of a ruff. If they're missing ♠Q and a side ace, it's significantly more than 50%, because sometimes you'll lead a trump, and when you don't they may correctly play you for ♠Q. If they're missing ♠AQ, that makes it less than 50% in theory, but again they may be able to gain from the lead.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#6
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Posted 2011-May-03, 08:00
gnasher, on 2011-May-03, 07:53, said:
You may be right that this is what people actually do, but it doesn't sound like very good bridge.
If all they're missing is ♠Q plus one key card, they should bid slam. If the missing keycard is ♠K, that makes the slam 76%, less the risk of a ruff. If they're missing ♠Q and a side ace, it's significantly more than 50%, because sometimes you'll lead a trump, and when you don't they may correctly play you for ♠Q. If they're missing ♠AQ, that makes it less than 50% in theory, but again they may be able to gain from the lead.
If all they're missing is ♠Q plus one key card, they should bid slam. If the missing keycard is ♠K, that makes the slam 76%, less the risk of a ruff. If they're missing ♠Q and a side ace, it's significantly more than 50%, because sometimes you'll lead a trump, and when you don't they may correctly play you for ♠Q. If they're missing ♠AQ, that makes it less than 50% in theory, but again they may be able to gain from the lead.
Ok, in a vacuum my reasoning isn't very convincing. But it also sounds like they have two balanced hands, and in that case just from our hand we know that if they are missing the spade queen, then they have at most 31 hcp and by far not enough tricks.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#7
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Posted 2011-May-03, 08:20
We have the CQ, and the diamond JT, etc. All of the above that you said is only true if they have everything else.
Some bad things that might happen when you just bid slam off one and the queen:
-They might get a ruff in the suit they have an ace of (especially if you have 7 of the suit you're missing the ace of... a 5-1 break is 14 % or something right? I guess it could be stiff ace, but it probably won't be that hard for Axxxx or a stiff to lead it)
-You might be off another queen or jack that you might have to have some good luck bringing in (a finesse or whatever). Bridge is not precise enough that we have only bid keycard when we know we have all the side queens and jacks that matter, sometimes you have to take a little risk. If partner had the queen of trumps rather than a different side queen, slam might well have been very good. This is a more common scenario than having every other suit locked up besides the trump queen and the ace, and that would lead to a very bad slam, possibly 30 %ish.
-You might not have the spade jack between your hands. You also might not even have the spade ten. Of course, this depends on whether you have one or both of those in your own hand, but lacking one or both of these would decrease your chances in slam quite a bit.
-You might get a 4-0 trump split. Yes, if we have everything locked up and all the trump spots, this possibility actually helps us. However, on most hands, it will hurt us because there will be handling issues etc.
-You might need a side suit to be not worse than 4-2 in order to make slam, or maybe not to get overruffed if it is some hand where you can't just pull trumps. If you had the trump queen this would be fine, but again your percentage is getting lower and lower if you don't.
I mean, basically the reason that "people" don't just bid it off one and the queen is that you often need a little bit more as well, and getting to a 40 % slam or even worse is quite costly. On top of that, people don't lead trumps very often from a stiff.
The only reason people are considering leading a trump on this hand with a stiff is because they have so much on the outside which
A) Makes it known that they do NOT have every suit locked up/a wealth of HCP (31 at most if partner has the SQ), so could not just jump to slam off 1 and the queen automatically in most cases and
B) Makes us want to lead passively and
C) Makes a stiff trump the most passive lead
So I don't think the edge gained from a possible trump lead amounts to much at all usually.
I agree with your point that you might be off the SK and SQ in which case you need to be in slam if you have both the jack and the ten, but again that depends on whether RHO has the SK or not and whether he has the jack or ten or not.
Some bad things that might happen when you just bid slam off one and the queen:
-They might get a ruff in the suit they have an ace of (especially if you have 7 of the suit you're missing the ace of... a 5-1 break is 14 % or something right? I guess it could be stiff ace, but it probably won't be that hard for Axxxx or a stiff to lead it)
-You might be off another queen or jack that you might have to have some good luck bringing in (a finesse or whatever). Bridge is not precise enough that we have only bid keycard when we know we have all the side queens and jacks that matter, sometimes you have to take a little risk. If partner had the queen of trumps rather than a different side queen, slam might well have been very good. This is a more common scenario than having every other suit locked up besides the trump queen and the ace, and that would lead to a very bad slam, possibly 30 %ish.
-You might not have the spade jack between your hands. You also might not even have the spade ten. Of course, this depends on whether you have one or both of those in your own hand, but lacking one or both of these would decrease your chances in slam quite a bit.
-You might get a 4-0 trump split. Yes, if we have everything locked up and all the trump spots, this possibility actually helps us. However, on most hands, it will hurt us because there will be handling issues etc.
-You might need a side suit to be not worse than 4-2 in order to make slam, or maybe not to get overruffed if it is some hand where you can't just pull trumps. If you had the trump queen this would be fine, but again your percentage is getting lower and lower if you don't.
I mean, basically the reason that "people" don't just bid it off one and the queen is that you often need a little bit more as well, and getting to a 40 % slam or even worse is quite costly. On top of that, people don't lead trumps very often from a stiff.
The only reason people are considering leading a trump on this hand with a stiff is because they have so much on the outside which
A) Makes it known that they do NOT have every suit locked up/a wealth of HCP (31 at most if partner has the SQ), so could not just jump to slam off 1 and the queen automatically in most cases and
B) Makes us want to lead passively and
C) Makes a stiff trump the most passive lead
So I don't think the edge gained from a possible trump lead amounts to much at all usually.
I agree with your point that you might be off the SK and SQ in which case you need to be in slam if you have both the jack and the ten, but again that depends on whether RHO has the SK or not and whether he has the jack or ten or not.
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#8
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Posted 2011-May-04, 08:04
I will leave it a bit longer before posting details of what would and would not have worked, but the diversity of votes at least suggests to me that this may not be as clearcut as partner suggested it was after I found an unsuccessful lead....
#9
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Posted 2011-May-04, 12:17
small diamond by default.
I hate all my other leads more.
I hate all my other leads more.
#10
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Posted 2011-May-06, 07:11
The actual hand is unbeatable double dummy, but in practice it will fail on a spade or diamond lead. On a club lead it will make 50% of the time. ♥A lead will ensure the contract makes, while a low heart will probably ensure it fails....
As some assumed, both opponents have balanced hands, and declarer has 5 solid trump tricks and 3 solid diamond tricks. Key suits are hearts, where dummy has KJ10 opposite xx, and clubs, where dummy has KJx opposite Axx. On a passive lead declarer will play for ♥Q onside since that will set up a discard for the potential club loser. On a club lead he will no doubt take the finesse, and then be faced with a straight guess in hearts. Interesting to see that my (fatal) choice of ♥A is the least popular in the poll! It seems to me that you probably aren't defeating this on your own, and the best lead depends on what partner can contribute. If it is a K (probably unlikely) then the most likely time the lead matters is when you can cash ♥AK - probably not likely enough to worry about. If it is a Q, then the best lead will depend on which Q he has. If it is ♠Q then cashing ♥A is probably best, a) to ensure it doesn't go away but perhaps more importantly b) because it might persuade declarer that you are more likely to hold a trump trick than partner, while leading a spade is probably fatal. If it is ♦Q it probably doesn't matter what you lead. If is is the actual ♥Q then leading ♥A is probably fatal, while leading a small heart will work well if ♥K is in dummy.... Anyway, you all did better than me!
I forgot to mention the possibility of CK, which would point to the other potentially unsuccessful lead of a club. This must be more likely than HAK cashing if opponents are using RKCB sensibly. At the end of the day, JLOGIC's analysis of why you shouldn't bid a slam missing both an ace and the trump queen should no doubt have pointed me towards hoping for HQ not SQ.
As some assumed, both opponents have balanced hands, and declarer has 5 solid trump tricks and 3 solid diamond tricks. Key suits are hearts, where dummy has KJ10 opposite xx, and clubs, where dummy has KJx opposite Axx. On a passive lead declarer will play for ♥Q onside since that will set up a discard for the potential club loser. On a club lead he will no doubt take the finesse, and then be faced with a straight guess in hearts. Interesting to see that my (fatal) choice of ♥A is the least popular in the poll! It seems to me that you probably aren't defeating this on your own, and the best lead depends on what partner can contribute. If it is a K (probably unlikely) then the most likely time the lead matters is when you can cash ♥AK - probably not likely enough to worry about. If it is a Q, then the best lead will depend on which Q he has. If it is ♠Q then cashing ♥A is probably best, a) to ensure it doesn't go away but perhaps more importantly b) because it might persuade declarer that you are more likely to hold a trump trick than partner, while leading a spade is probably fatal. If it is ♦Q it probably doesn't matter what you lead. If is is the actual ♥Q then leading ♥A is probably fatal, while leading a small heart will work well if ♥K is in dummy.... Anyway, you all did better than me!
I forgot to mention the possibility of CK, which would point to the other potentially unsuccessful lead of a club. This must be more likely than HAK cashing if opponents are using RKCB sensibly. At the end of the day, JLOGIC's analysis of why you shouldn't bid a slam missing both an ace and the trump queen should no doubt have pointed me towards hoping for HQ not SQ.
This post has been edited by WellSpyder: 2011-May-06, 07:21
#11
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Posted 2011-May-06, 11:02
Like others, I'd go for a passive lead.
Trump looks appealing, but if that digs out pard's Qxx he'll be deemed not-guilty of murder (lol) so I'll settle for a diamond. Small one, as the jack might give away the show (note pard didn't dbl the 3♦ relay, so he might not have more than Kxx or so).
Trump looks appealing, but if that digs out pard's Qxx he'll be deemed not-guilty of murder (lol) so I'll settle for a diamond. Small one, as the jack might give away the show (note pard didn't dbl the 3♦ relay, so he might not have more than Kxx or so).
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