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Pass or 3NT? pd oppened 2NT

#1 User is offline   mich-b 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 06:53

2NT = 20-22
<br>3C = Puppet Stayman
<br>3D = 1 or both 4 card majors


Pass or 3NT?
Can anyone run a simulation?
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#2 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 07:52

I think pass is right.
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#3 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 14:35

Pass. Be glad you are playing puppet. Also interested in a sim also - (include 19's with a good minor please)
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#4 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 15:12

View Postmich-b, on 2010-December-26, 06:53, said:

2NT = 20-22
3C = Puppet Stayman
3D = 1 or both 4 card majors

Pass or 3NT? Can anyone run a simulation?
IMO _P = 10, 3N (or whatever) = 9.
Vulnerable, at teams, it's close but going on is betting on a diamond fit. When that hope fails, 3N is likely to fail by several tricks.
Guthrie.tech
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#5 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 15:36

View Postnige1, on 2010-December-26, 15:12, said:

IMO _P = 10, 3N (or whatever) = 9.
Vulnerable, at teams, it's close but going on is betting on a diamond fit. When that hope fails, 3N is likely to fail by several tricks.

So, both passing and bidding are excellent (9+) choices?
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#6 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 16:55

Apparently Pass is better. Running a simulation with your constraints (opener has 20 to 22 HCP's and at least a 4-card major) there's a 27% chance of game in NT. I had run a simulation with my own agreements (opener could have 20-21 and maybe 4 spades, not 5, but surely not 5 or 4 hearts); in that case the percentage was 25% for 3NT.

If you want to risk game 5D seems better (33%).

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#7 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-December-26, 19:43

View Postnige1, on 2010-December-26, 15:12, said:

MO _P = 10, 3N (or whatever) = 9.
Vulnerable, at teams, it's close but going on is betting on a diamond fit. When that hope fails, 3N is likely to fail by several tricks.

View PostBbradley62, on 2010-December-26, 15:36, said:

So, both passing and bidding are excellent (9+) choices?
Yes my guess was that Pass is best (hence it gets 10). I estimated 3N to be close behind. Bbradley obviously thinks I'm wrong in thinking they are close and Hanoi5's simulation seems to reinforce that conclusion.

On reflection I think you should also consider investigating the possibility of a Moysian fit i.e
_P =10, 4 whatever = 9, Settle for 3N = 8.
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#8 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2010-December-27, 21:24

Pass and not close sounds right to me.

What if you're not playing Puppet? That makes a REALLY interesting question. Over 1NT with a weak 3-3-6-1 Stayman is still a really big winner; I wouldn't be surprised if this is the right time for a 4-3 fit even over 2NT. I'd gamble on it (and apparently land in 3M on the actual cards.)
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#9 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-December-28, 15:19

Didn't run any sim, but pass seems quite clear to me. When the long suit is wimpish, steer away from NT.
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