jukmoi, on 2010-December-15, 06:58, said:
Does not rhm`s line require guessing EW distribution correctly in the ending?
The defense has a (theoretical) chance if East has exactly 4 cards in
♠.
This probably means that West would have to be 3
♠=1
♥=2
♦=7
♣ and East 4
♠=5
♥=1
♦=3
♣
In the six card ending after 1
♥ and 5
♦s and the
♣A play, West must keep all his
♠ and come down to 3 cards in both black suits. If West discards any
♠, the defense is dead. East must come down to 2 cards in
♠,
♥QTx,
♣x
Declarer now plays the
♠Q and either West must not cover or East must duck from
♠Kx!
Declarer now plays his last
♦, West must again discard a
♣ and East can now release a
♥!
Unless declarer smells a rat, he will now either repeat the
♠ finesse or try to end-play East by playing
♥A,
♥.
If East comes in, he can play an unexpected carefully preserved
♣. Down two.
However, this requires a far more difficult defense than returning a
♠, if you mis-guess the
♠K early in the play. If
♠ are 3-4 your chances of guessing the
♠K are not much better than 50%
In my view even a world class pair is unlikely to find this defense at the table, but would certainly return a
♠.
Since my line of play can not keep the
♣ queen as a threat against West, it is also slightly better on my line of play to cash the
♣A early and go dummy to ruff the
♣Q, in case East has only 2 cards in
♣.
Rainer Herrmann
You may not agree with the auction; in fact we were only in 5♦ at the table but 6♦ is the interesting play problem.
Opponents are not particularly strong (witness the 3♣...4♣ sequence).
The lead is the ♥7. East will duck if you call the ♥4, or otherwise cover dummy's card cheaply.
If you cash a top diamond, east will follow with the queen, west playing the three.
What is your plan to make 6♦?